Bitcoin’s violent drawdowns never get easier. They’re always shocking, and often physically nauseating.
But if BTC is ever going to $200k, $500k, this is the mechanism.
There is no orderly change of guard in a bearer asset. For holders who’ve been in since 2015 and earlier, sitting on generational gains, above ~$100k the marginal unit of return starts to look small relative to the marginal unit of risk they’re carrying. $100k is a powerful anchor.
At the same time, for the ETF guard that same price is not a compelling entry on a risk-adjusted basis.
So what does the market do?
It pushes price toward where equilibrium actually clears supply. Not politely, not linearly, but through drawdowns that force reallocation. There is no negotiated handover of the holder base.
From this frame, this isn’t Bitcoin “breaking,” it’s ownership changing hands. And that process, ugly as it is, is precisely what builds future returns.
