I was biased for a higher high and higher low since the crash to 80k (which more or less played out) but seems we have now stalled and evolved into good ol' fashioned BARTs in a wide range. Don't be quick to be shaken out on every "scary" move that often are fakeouts to trigger stops.
BARTs often occur after most organic retail have left or are sidelined and larger players are using both sides of the range to fill/exit size rather than drive a directional trend, and often show up in bottoming processes and can go on for a while. However they could still be potential distribution processes instead of accumulation as the macro downtrend still is clearly bearish unless we can definitively claim above the $95k area, preferably above $100k (which will be very tough imo).
They cluster when price is stuck around a key pivot (here: ~88-90k) with clear supply above (~93.5-96k).
Here's how to trade around this crap:
Define your range:
Support/demand: 88–90k
Resistance/supply: 94–96k
Long idea (fade BART dumps):
-Wait for a flush below 89–90k that closes back inside the zone.
-Enter on the reclaim, not during the nuke.
Invalidation: just below the sweep low.
Targets: 91–92k and 93–94k, optional runner toward top of box.
Short idea (fade BART pumps):
-Wait for a spike into 93.5–96k that leaves wicks / lower highs.
-Enter on rejection, not mid-pump.
-Invalidation: above the wick high.
-Targets: 91–92k and 89–90k.
When this playbook stops working:
-H4/D1 closes and holds (not wicks) below ~88–89k -> stop buying the bottom of the box, respect potential downside trend.
-H4/D1 breaks and holds (not wicks) above ~93.5–94k -> stop shorting every pop, look to buy pullbacks instead.
Until one of those breaks sticks, treat BARTs as a signal to fade extremes in a defined range, not as a trend signal.
