Quinn Thompson

Quinn Thompson

1,377 Twitter followers

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day: head of capital markets & growth @maplefinance 🥞 night: amateur markets guy 🌎

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The 2020's will be remembered as the decade where 90% of conspiracy theories came true. Which in other words is just peak distrust, deceit and lies from all institutions and governments. @Peter_Atwater twitter.com/qthomp/status/2038...

The largest Bitcoin miner balance sheet is now a distressed seller after liquidating over $1B of its Bitcoin at ~$72,000 after making purchases 30-40% higher above $90,000 per BTC. This is just the beginning of a major unwind across the sector. twitter.com/qthomp/status/2037...

Step 3 has begun

1. Mag7 depletes cash reserves to fund capex and begins reducing share buybacks and tapping debt markets 2. Private credit, one of the largest financiers of said capex, is facing historic drawdowns across their portfolios and will tighten belts, thus reducing supply of debt

It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act. There are definitely closed door conversations in the US being had around testing these partners’ resolve. The problem is that although it’s not *as* big of a problem for the US, it’s still bad. It could get a bit weird. Trump may threaten US export restrictions on oil and gas if they don’t assist which would decrease price pressures domestically but worsen the situation for our allies. On the other hand, they could counter with threats of Treasury and US asset sales to raise dollars to fund higher energy costs at the expense of financial market stability.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Germany, Japan, and Australia say they will not be joining US efforts to militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the UK and France say they are willing to discuss options, per WSJ.

The internet and social media has desensitized humans to a lot of things. I don’t think we grasp just how crazy the stuff that’s going on is and the fact that it’s broadcast for the world to see in real-time. Markets are sleepwalking. Commodity prices are not done rising.

Massive fires continue to burn into the night at the Port of Salalah in Oman, with the blaze caused by Wednesday’s drone attack against the port by Iran having now spread to most if not all oil tanks at the MINA Petroleum Facility.

Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. twitter.com/qthomp/status/2028...

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