Stacy Muur

Stacy Muur

64,475 Twitter followers

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In Web3 since 2016. Ex CMO, (too) passionate about research & data. Founder https://t.co/YxZBKWgjYJ Telegram channel: https://t.co/d5Ioy4qbi8

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Honestly, it's the first December in a few years that feels very relaxed and calm. Everyone is now tired of the grind. The last few months were brutal, and as opportunities dry up and risk increases, people seem to start going afk. Great time to enjoy holidays and finally take a pause. We deserve it.

Interesting design choice from @cypher_ethereum: No VCs No private rounds ~70%+ of supply to users All protocol revenue → locked stakers Full focus on Ethereum L1 Main thesis: Rebuilding capital formation on Ethereum itself. • Factory for fast permissionless launches • ICO rails for structured, on-chain fundraising • Liquidity auto-routes into the same AMM Instead of emissions dumping into liquidity, incentives route through options (oCYPH), forcing either: • long-term alignment • or ETH buybacks New on my watchlist. NFA, DYOR. twitter.com/stacy_muur/status/...

Most important charts of 2025 series: In 2025, prediction markets became more than betting. In fact, they are the new infrastructure for pricing expectations (hybrid fintech). -> Prediction markets are here to stay and keep growing. Good news.

Hotspot growth might be the most ignored @helium metric. 120K+ deployed. Still adding ~70/week. Plus: Weekly data transfer keeps going higher, from actual usage scaling. Last week alone: +5% QoQ. Fundamentals is the long-term vision for $HNT.

Key margin notes from @1kxnetwork’s 2025 Onchain Revenue Report: • Onchain fees hit ~$20B in 2025 and are on track for $32B+ in 2026, driven almost entirely by applications, not blockchains. • Blockchains lost the business model & apps won it. L1/L2 fees collapsed ~95% due to efficiency, yet usage exploded. Value shifted decisively from base layers to DEXs, perps, lending, wallets, RWAs, DePIN. • Only ~100 protocols actually matter. Out of 1,100+ fee-generating protocols, most won’t survive once incentives dry up. The winners share one trait: users pay because the product is better, not because tokens subsidize usage. • Incentives are dying & cash flow is replacing them. Apps cut incentive spend from ~90% of fees (2021) to <3% (2025). Despite lower total fees, token holder distributions hit all-time highs via buybacks and burns. • RWAs, DePIN, wallets = the growth engine for 2026. These sectors are compounding >200% YoY and are projected to hit $1B+ combined fees next year, fueled by regulation + real-world demand. • Valuation mismatch is getting extreme. Blockchains hold ~90% of market cap but generate ~12% of fees. Apps are cheap relative to cash flow – something has to mean-revert. twitter.com/stacy_muur/status/...

Public companies don’t buy narratives, they buy primitives Korean public company MARBLEX @MARBLEXofficial holding $OPEN suggests they see @OpenledgerHQ as foundational infra, not a single-game bet. That’s a very different bar than “partnership announcements.” Big signal here, imo.

Very interesting study here. Some margin notes for founders: • Funding and community size is irrelevant. Correlation between capital raised / X follower and token performance is effectively zero. • Most tokens are dead on Day 1. Average ROI from launch is ~0.96x. • Sector narratives matter more than execution quality (very sad) • Projects generating real revenue now trade worse than vaporware. This is unsustainable and signals a deeply broken market incentive structure. • Timing for token launches is crucial. Miss good timing = rekt. twitter.com/stacy_muur/status/...

Tier list of food that will make everyone mad: S: Shawarma, sushi (not rolls!), pad thai A: Steaks, cheese, chocolate B: Oysters, wings, bakery, ramen C: Avocado, pasta, curry, burgers D: Pizza, mussels, matcha ... ... ... Z: Licorice, vinegar, mayo, cauliflower, beans Ready

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