TSMC Posts 62.3% Gross Margin in Q4, 2026 CapEx Seen Reaching Up to $56B
TSMC released its 4Q25 earnings on the 15th, reporting consolidated revenue of $33.83B for the quarter. Gross margin came in at 62.3%, exceeding the high end of the companyās prior guidance. Looking ahead to 2026, TSMC struck an upbeat tone, forecasting first-quarter revenue of $34.8ā35.8Bāpoised to challenge a new quarterly recordāand announcing a significant increase in capital expenditures to $52ā56B to support growing demand for advanced process nodes.
Addressing market concerns over a potential AI bubble, Chairman C.C. Wei stated unequivocally during the earnings call, āAI demand is real.ā He emphasized that the structural growth of AI-related applications is still in its early stages, with customer signals for capacity both clear and exceptionally strong. Based on its long-term demand outlook, TSMC has raised its forecast for the CAGR of AI-related revenue from 2024 to 2029 to above 45%, underscoring AI as the companyās most critical growth driver in the coming years.
Wei also noted that progress on the 2nm (N2) process is on track, with mass production slated for the end of 2025. He added that customer interest in 2nm has been exceptionally strongāāeven higher than what we saw for 3nm at a comparable stageāāsuggesting a rapid ramp-up early in 2026. Wei further observed early signs of a mild recovery in non-AI end markets such as smartphones and PCs, and expects demand for advanced nodes to continue rising as edge AI features are increasingly adopted.
Regarding global expansion, Wei explained TSMC is accelerating the build-out of its manufacturing footprint to meet customer needs. The companyās first fab in Arizona has successfully entered volume production, and TSMC has recently acquired additional land to develop a standalone Gigafab cluster to support AI and HPC customers. Meanwhile, projects in Kumamoto, Japan, and Dresden, Germany, are progressing as planned.
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