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灯塔说
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重度ICT/SMC交易 Hold｜#BTC #ETH #BNB #Binance 广场创作者 商务合作｜交友DM TG:@Cryptodengta
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Signal Clone Analysis
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灯塔说
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What does "follow the big, go against the small" mean? Here’s a textbook example! Since the rebound from 81K, both BTC and ETH have been forming a textbook ascending channel on the hourly chart. So, how do you play this move? On the lower timeframe: This is a right-side uptrend channel—just play the range, long the lows, short the highs. Once the channel structure breaks, that’s your cue to change your strategy. On the 4H and higher timeframes: This ascending channel actually looks like a flag within a mid-term downtrend. For swing trades, the play is to look for shorts around the upper boundary of the channel. Only if there’s a strong breakout on the 4H chart should you consider cutting shorts and flipping long. That’s the game plan based on structure. But don’t just look at the charts—watch the order book and data too. During this bottom channel climb, volume is fading, CVD isn’t pushing higher, and OI is just moving sideways. This is classic long/short tug-of-war. So, according to the "follow the big, go against the small" logic: follow the mid-term downtrend, fade the short-term uptrend. As price hits the upper edge of the channel, it’s prime territory to stack up shorts—that’s how you apply this principle. That’s exactly what’s been in the trading plan these days: keep shorting in the 88.8K–89.6K zone, add to shorts at the extreme channel top near 90.6K. Only if we break below 85.3K does the channel structure break and we look for a new bottoming pattern. ETH’s short zone is in sync with BTC, up at 2980–3040. But if BTC smashes through 91K on the 4H and holds, it’s time to flip the bias—ditch the shorts, look for pullback longs. #BTC #ETH
OI
5.75%
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灯塔说
11-21
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Is 81,000 the bottom? If I had to guess: this looks more like the first leg of acceleration in the downtrend, not the ultimate panic bottom. The whales can easily use the 80k–82k range for some chop, then pump to 85k–88k to squeeze shorts and bait longs, before deciding whether to nuke it down to 76k–78k or go for a bigger consolidation. To call a reversal, at least these conditions need to be met: 1. 4H stops making new lows; 2. Long lower wicks with volume at the bottom, and buy-sell delta stops making new lows; 3. Open interest climbs but price doesn’t drop (obvious handover of positions). None of this has happened yet, so the trend is still bearish—any bounce is just a better shorting opportunity. Tonight’s plan: already in a starter short above 84k! Stop loss at 85.5k, targeting around 82k–80k. If we see a reversal, check if 4H prints a new low. #BTC $BTC
BTC
3.87%
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