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百萬Eric | Day Trader
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美股自营基金日内交易员 | 纽约大学数据科学 | 极限运动 | Proprietary Day Trader | NYU Data Science | X Sports 社群：https://t.co/2QYcd4H2hZ 直播：https://t.co/UkDBLCTolD
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Signal Clone Analysis
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百萬Eric | Day Trader
In an uptrend, prices repeatedly make higher lows (HL), confirming and extending the trendline. As long as the trendline is valid, bulls remain in control. The true turning point occurs when prices first break below the trendline. When the price rebounds and retests but fails to re-establish itself, the trendline shifts from support to resistance, signaling a shift in bullish and bearish power. If the market subsequently begins to make lower highs (LH), this further confirms bearish dominance. Staking short positions at this point will significantly improve both the win rate and profit-loss ratio. To put it simply, the value of a trendline lies not in its "drawing" (drawing it or not is irrelevant, as long as you know it), but in its response to breakouts and retests. It is the key point where bullish and bearish power shifts and the true signal of a trend reversal.
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百萬Eric | Day Trader
#AAVE just hit daily oversold levels. Looking back at the last two oversold signals, the price saw strong and sustained rallies, with clear profit opportunities. But this time, I’m choosing to wait a bit longer. Ideally, I’d like to see another leg down—best case, a touch of the EMA100, or even a wick down to the EMA200 (the key trendline between bull and bear territory). If, during this move, price manages to form a micro inverse head and shoulders, that wouldn’t just be an oversold bounce—it could mark the start of a real trend reversal. This kind of setup doesn’t always play out, but if it does, the risk is low and the R/R is insane—almost guaranteed profit on entry. If the market doesn’t give me what I want, I’ll keep watching for bullish setups around the EMA50.
AAVE
1.19%
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百萬Eric | Day Trader
In a high-level market, the Double Top pattern is the most common peak signal: two similar high points, with a pullback in between, reflecting that the bulls’ two attempts to break through have failed and the bullish force is fading. But the real key to a Double Top is not whether the "shape looks similar", but whether the neckline is broken. Only when the price effectively breaks through the neckline and the rebound is unable to recover, does it mean that the bearish trend is truly established. Therefore, don't rush into the market when you see a Double Top. The most reasonable strategy is to wait for the neckline to be effectively broken, then look for a pullback to confirm. This not only conforms to the trend logic, but also keeps risk within a reasonable range. To put it more simply: the value of a Double Top does not lie in the two high points, but in "breaking through the neckline + retracement confirmation."
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百萬Eric | Day Trader
In a downtrend, moving averages often act as price resistance. Repeated price rebounds, yet prices remain trapped below the moving average, are a clear indicator of bearish dominance. At some point, the market accelerates downward, breaking through a long lower shadow, and buying power begins to take over. Prices then break through the moving average and stabilize on a pullback, signaling a potential trend reversal. Thus, moving averages alone are not signals; the truly valuable combination of "moving average position + candlestick pattern + pullback confirmation" is the key. Only when resistance is broken and held on a pullback does this level of support have practical significance. In other words, while monitoring moving averages is correct, it's not enough to simply focus on whether a breakout occurs. The real key lies in whether the market has achieved both a breakout and confirmation.
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