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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
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成长的路，有欢欣，也有悲伤，有成功，也有失利……成长带给我太多的思考与感悟！是非对错一笑而过，种善果结善缘。 现货玩家 | 🐮🐻周期信仰者 | ❤️旅行 | ❤️健身 | ❤️美食 | 职业出金人 | 只收不卖 | -0.15永久售后/-0.3冻结包赔 | 交易所实名卡转收付 | 零冻记录保持者 |
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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
03-28
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Some people didn't see my previous post about cutting losses on spot positions and don't know that I stopped all my spot losses. Some people who were just watching the drama said, "Aren't you afraid if it's not spot? Isn't spot trading supposed to be a long-term strategy?" My cryptocurrency trading has always been guided by macroeconomics and aimed at cyclical trends. Looking back, my timing for establishing positions was flawed. Firstly, my two precise top-selling attempts last year, which earned me accolades, stemmed from excessive overconfidence. Secondly, I shouldn't have gone all - in, which was driven by greed after that overconfidence. In the first phase, I established positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, UNI, LINK, OKB, etc. By the second phase, when I stopped losses on most altcoins and switched to BTC, keeping only OKB, I fully realized my position-building mistakes and could only rely on time. The third phase involved a 50% loss, stemming from the war, a point I've discussed in my recent tweets. With the war ongoing and crude oil prices remaining high, an escalation of the war could lead to uncontrollable oil prices. Crude oil is the root cause of inflation. The Federal Reserve's March meeting clearly stated: no interest rate cuts, upward revision of inflation expectations, and retention of the option to raise interest rates. The best outcome is range-bound trading, with downside risks outweighing upside potential. At this point, reducing positions and holding a defensive stance is a rational choice.
福禄寿 UV DAO
@FLS_OTC
03-27
止损后空仓下跌终于不难受了😂
BTC
0.6%
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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
03-21
Trump is currently facing a dilemma regarding military action against Iran. He posted on social media that military objectives are nearing completion and he is considering a gradual de-escalation, while criticizing NATO as a "paper tiger." However, these statements cannot conceal his passive situation: the original plan was to quickly destroy Iran's core capabilities and control oil prices, but now it has become a war of attrition. Soaring oil prices have pushed up US inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, narrowing expectations of rate cuts, and even raising rates. Gold and US stocks have also come under pressure and fallen, and the goal of a quick victory has completely failed. The current key dilemma lies in this predicament. Escalating the action could trigger a full-scale war, further pushing up oil prices, exacerbating inflation, suppressing expectations of rate cuts, and dragging down stock and gold prices. De-escalation, on the other hand, risks being accused of weakness, affecting votes, and facing the dual pressures of allies shifting blame and domestic political division, while the high inflation and falling asset prices will also be difficult to alleviate. His so-called "tactical de-escalation" is actually a stop-loss choice made in this dilemma. It is neither a graceful exit nor a complete victory. With persistent inflationary pressures, fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and hikes, and pressure on gold and US stocks, the predicament is likely to continue. For BTC to merely fluctuate without falling in this situation would be the best-case scenario.
BTC
0.6%
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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
03-19
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no signs of abating. Israel recently joined the US in attacking energy and gas facilities in Bushehr and other areas of southern Iran. Iran retaliated by attacking energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, directly disrupting the global energy supply order. This suggests that international crude oil prices will continue to rise. It is noteworthy that US President Trump has repeatedly called on allies to participate in the action against Iran and support the US and Israel, but most NATO allies have remained lukewarm and explicitly refused to engage in the conflict. This further highlights the spillover risks, requiring close monitoring of the conflict's trajectory and oil price fluctuations. If oil prices continue to rise, it will directly put downward pressure on global consumption and employment, while further pushing up inflation. Combined with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's clear policy stance of "maintaining interest rates and cautiously cutting rates" last night, and influenced by multiple factors, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to see a significant rebound in the short term, and are more likely to maintain a volatile and corrective trend. Long-term trends will depend on continued monitoring of inflation data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation.
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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
03-18
In recent years, BTC has significantly outperformed ETH, even outpacing it by a considerable margin. The exchange rate has shown a long-term downward trend, falling from 0.084 to the current 0.0315. So, what will the exchange rate look like in the next few years? In layman's terms, which will earn more in the next few years: holding BTC spot ($74,000) or ETH spot ($2,326) in the current market ($74,000)? ETH's narrative has shifted from its early explosive application to the robustness of its underlying infrastructure. The early DeFi summer and NFT craze exhausted many expectations, and there's been no new narrative to fuel this growth. BitMine plans to accumulate 5% of the total ETH supply, currently accumulating approximately 3.6% (4.6 million ETH), with over 3 million already staked, and will continue to accumulate. BlackRock officially launched an Ethereum ETF (ETHB) this month that includes staking functionality, which are all long-term positives. However, relying on these factors to outperform BTC in the future is unlikely to be supported by micro-strategies. I used to enjoy the thrill of trading cryptocurrencies, with both gains and losses, but after the spot market crash, I'm exhausted. The simplest way is to hold BTC spot, which is better than anything else.
BTC
0.6%
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福禄寿OTC🇨🇳
03-16
OKB today might be the Bitcoin of yesteryear. Back when Bitcoin was around $100, who could have predicted what would happen years later? If you had said then that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 or $100,000, 99% of people would have thought you were crazy. OKB, with a similar total supply of 21 million, has a market capitalization of only $2 billion. Backed by the OKX exchange, with expectations of a US stock market listing, and the best Web3 wallet, it allows for legal and compliant trading of US stock assets on exchanges or the OKX Web3 wallet chain. If I said it would be $1,000 per coin, you'd think I was crazy; if I said OKB would one day be $10,000 per coin, would you think I'm insane? Of course, this requires many expectations to be realized, but OKB's potential is undeniable.
OKB
0.11%
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