Every time you press Yes/No, the gears of fate begin to turn.
This article attempts to analyze controversial topics in prediction markets (primarily polymarkets) and examine their manipulability under a binary game.
It also explores possible market intervention methods from the perspectives of psychology, the crowd effect, market manipulation, and mass communication.
For news initiators and media:
Every prediction market can be seen as a real-time thermometer of narrative influence, allowing for adjustments to the output rhythm by observing the market movements: which candidates to continue hyping, and which plot points need further development.
For project teams/platforms:
The ambiguity of the rules, the choice of settlement source, and the design of the dispute mechanism all directly affect "who can profit from the closing events."
For participants (retail investors/KOLs/communities):
Comment sections, social media, and various secondary interpretations constitute a whole set of psychological levers that can be exploited. In this structure, those with stronger voices (KOLs, influential figures, investment research accounts) naturally possess the ability to manipulate the narrative.
For hackers and "system players," monitoring front-end code, data source updates, news APIs, and even oracle mechanisms can themselves be a systematic strategy. Preemptively capturing hardcode, configuration errors, and rule-edge situations, and then establishing positions before the market reacts, is a high-leverage form of "structured alpha."
More aggressive players will directly research how to legally or "skirt-skirt" influence settlement information sources, making the world "appear" to align with their own position direction in the short term.
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