August 18, 1913.
A strange thing happened at the Monte Carlo casino.
On the roulette table, the ball landed in a black square.
This was normal.
The second time, still black.
The third time, still black.
When black appeared for the tenth time in a row.
The gamblers began to stir.
They all bet their chips on red.
The reasoning was sound:
"It's been ten blacks in a row, according to probability, the next one will definitely be red!"
"It's time for God to change his luck."
As a result, the eleventh time, it was still black.
The gamblers were blinded by greed, convinced that "red" was coming soon.
Some bet their houses, some bet their entire fortunes.
The fifteenth time, black.
The twentieth time, black.
It wasn't until the twenty-sixth time that the ball finally landed in a red square.
That night.
The casino made millions of francs.
Countless gamblers, believing that "probability corrects itself," went bankrupt.
This is the famous "Monte Carlo fallacy," also known as the "gambler's fallacy."
People mistakenly believe that:
If something happens many times (a series of blacks),
then its probability of happening in the future decreases (it's time for a red).
But the truth is: Roulette has no memory.
The coin has no memory.
Every toss is independent.
The probability of getting a black is always 50%.
It doesn't owe you a single red.
In Polymarket or secondary market trading.
If you see a coin has fallen for 10 consecutive days,
don't think it "can't fall any further" and therefore "must rebound."
It could fall for another 10 days,
or even go to zero.
The market has no obligation to help you recover your losses.
