📕 Hobby Room Research written by Coin Oppa
📌 Key Issues of the First Week of January 2026
'The Great Convergence': Oil Prices, Interest Rates, Liquidity, and the Major Shift in the Cryptocurrency Market
With the start of 2026, the global macro environment is converging in a single direction.
Key keywords are geopolitical thaw, the resulting downward pressure on oil prices, and the resulting liquidity supercycle.
🌍 Three Major Geopolitical Variables: All 'Downward Oil Price'
The market is currently facing three geopolitical events simultaneously. Crucially, expectations of falling oil prices are forming before actual production increases.
① Possibility of an End to the Russia-Ukraine War
The mere expectation of an end to the war is preemptively removing the geopolitical risk premium that had been weighing on the energy market.
② Venezuelan regime change and market opening
Even before increased production, the perception that "you can buy it cheaper later" spread, and the delay in purchasing itself exerts downward pressure on oil prices.
③ Iranian regime instability and the possibility of sanctions relief
Expectations of the resumption of crude oil exports are reflected in prices before actual production, fueling concerns about oversupply.
🛢 The key is not "oversupply," but "expectations of oversupply."
The essence of this oil price decline is the pre-reflection of expectations of increased supply, rather than an actual increase in volume.
In the crude oil market,
👉 when expectations of cheaper future purchases emerge,
👉 the incentive to build inventory now disappears,
👉 and from that moment on, prices move first.
The narratives of the end of the war, sanctions relief, and regime change are forming simultaneously.
Even before the full-scale inflow of crude oil from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran,
👉 the possibility of a supply surplus of over 2 million barrels per day by 2026 is already being reflected in prices.
As a result, oil prices are entering a disinflationary path, heading towards $50-$60 per barrel for Brent crude.
🏦 Expectations of falling oil prices → Slowing inflation → Fed's choices
Oil prices are the most direct variable influencing inflation.
Even the mere expectation of falling oil prices dampens inflation expectations, narrowing the Fed's policy options.
Real interest rate = nominal interest rate – inflation rate
If interest rates remain in the 4% range when inflation expectations are falling to the mid-1% range,
real interest rates will rise excessively, leading to an economic burden.
Ultimately, the Fed will be forced to choose between rate cuts and liquidity injections.
💰 Cryptocurrency Market: Macroeconomics Takes Over Halvings
Unlike past cycles, macroeconomic variables such as oil prices, interest rates, and liquidity are having a stronger impact this cycle than the halving itself.
Interest rate cuts → a weaker dollar → increased liquidity
led to a shift in funds towards assets that signal global liquidity, such as Bitcoin.
With the expansion of ETFs and their adoption at the corporate and national levels,
this cycle is likely to unfold as a structural demand-driven bull market.
💡 Summary
2026 is likely to be a year in which the following trends could unfold in stages: "expectations of falling oil prices → calming inflation → interest rate cuts → a liquidity boom."
Changes in expectations about energy prices are likely to influence monetary policy, and this liquidity will ultimately flow into risky asset markets, particularly Bitcoin.
👉 This cycle is not simply about expectations
👉 It's more of a structural shift supported by macroeconomic factors.
#International #CoinOppa
