The market isn’t on the bulls’ side right now.
Over the past couple of days, I’ve picked up medium-term puts on $CRCL, $NVDA, and $MU, and gone long on $CVX and $XOM stocks.
On the crypto side, I’m shorting $BTC and went long on $OIL on Hyperliquid.
Here’s why:
1. Geopolitical tensions are likely to escalate further. I’ve already detailed the reasons in previous threads—forty years of Iranian brainwashing won’t be undone overnight. Oil prices, aside from short-term reactions to news, will likely stay elevated in the mid- to long-term.
2. There are massive IPOs coming in the second half of the year: SpaceX at $75B, Anthropic at $60B, and possibly even OpenAI. For context, the entire US IPO market only raised about $469B from 2016 to 2025. To absorb IPOs of this magnitude, institutional players (mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds) basically have no choice but to offload their existing tech/AI heavyweights on a large scale to free up cash (portfolio rebalancing).
