As Bitcoin has once again easily fallen below the 110,000 mark, and based on my recent thoughts after my mood has calmed down, I would like to share my feelings about the current market situation.
First, don't expect a major rebound in the short term. The extreme plunge and massive margin calls on October 11th, while profiting a few institutions and individuals, inflicted immense damage on the entire market. From institutions to individuals, everyone was devastated. Besides the significant financial losses, the morale was even more devastating. For altcoins and CEXs, the last veil of protection has been ripped off.
Since the beginning of this year, a question has been lingering in my mind: "Is the risk and return of the crypto still positively correlated?" Confidence is gold, and so is liquidity, but in the short term, both seem to have vanished.
In this case, it would be good to maintain the current price fluctuations. What is more likely is that the fragile market will be broken by some risk event(s).
The DAT story has come to an end. The new narrative that began in June has also come to an end. Tom Lee, a key figure in the DAT concept, recently warned that the DAT bubble has "burst."
He believes that the valuation logic of companies holding large amounts of crypto assets (such as ETH/BTC) as treasury assets is being seriously questioned. The current market value of some such companies is even lower than the value of their crypto assets.
He called this a clear signal that the game of "treating crypto assets as treasury assets" was beginning to crack.
Although he still nursed his bag $ETH will reach a new high, but those who understand will understand.
There are also numerous macroeconomic factors disrupting the economy: the US government shutdown, tense US-China relations, the continued quagmire of war in many parts of the world, and the looming concern of a correction from high US stock prices. The only positive factor that is certain is an interest rate cut. The market is fragile, and the world is heading towards instability and division.
