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1/ Based Token Farming: While everyone else was fixated on trading, the real "honey pot" was in the Prediction Market. To start with the conclusion, the cost of trading was around 100M at best, but I was able to lower it to the 30M level in the Prediction Market. How was this possible? I am sharing the strategy. 2/ The Key is the Correlation Between 'Builder Fee' and Probability In the Prediction Market, 2M Gold is distributed as a fixed amount per Epoch. Calculations showed that the structure was such that the builder fee increased as the probability approached 0%. In other words, this meant you could efficiently burn through fees (costs) while reducing the number of trades. 3/ Setting Up a Perfect Wash Trading Environment The key was selecting tokens with thin order books and 0% probability. Since mixing in other people's money complicates wash trading, I selected only tokens with no volume and boosted the trading volume using multiple accounts on PolyMarket. At the time, the Prediction Market achieved 10k daily revenue, and 8k of that was my share. 4/ 'The Aesthetics of Moderation' - Since the pool is fixed at $5,000 per account per epoch, mindlessly burning money actually results in a loss. That is why I approached it with multiple accounts. After analyzing the data, I found that investing $5,000 per account was the peak of gold mining efficiency. As expected, farming is not about luck, but a battle of thorough calculation. So, when I had farmed quite a bit using the prediction market, I really saw the point where I should graduate. Because the profit was significant even if the base reached just 200 million. But I am sad because I am left with nothing but regret.
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I have an interesting idea to share with you early this morning. The rule of the Poly Market's FDV market is always based on ET. “One day after listing” refers to 4:00 PM ET on the day following the listing. The settlement standard for this market is the most liquid price information source available. - The reference point for the date change in ET time is 13:00 PM KST (Korea Standard Time). - Edge's ad claims began around 11:00 AM, and although the official pool hadn't been created yet, active trading was possible before 13:00. - So let's think about it. Around 12:00 PM on March 31st KST, the judgment is based on the FDV at 05:00 AM on April 1st KST. At this time, the Bybit spot with the highest trading volume is around 650 million, and the Edge spot is around 605 million. - However, since the official CEX is 21:30 on March 31st KST, everyone is mistakenly assuming the 05:00 AM KST on April 2nd is the standard. - Edge buyback started around dawn on April 2nd KST. I started it after seeing the news; the price FDV at that time was 630 million. - Now let's think about it. If the buyback starts, the probability of a 700 million "yes" will gradually increase, right? So far, things went well. - But my scenario is... If it barely hit 700m and the 700m "yes" votes came out at 100, it would be "yes" based on the 4.2 KST standard, but "no" based on the 4.1 KST standard. Anticipating that a dispute would definitely arise, I thought the risk-reward ratio would be good if I bought the "no" votes at $0.1~$2. Loss 100% or profit 5000%~100000% - The ambiguous part here was that while the free transfer of tokens was now possible, it was unclear how to interpret the liquidity criteria; I approached it with this level of risk. - In conclusion, it didn't hit 700m, so I just stayed up all night.
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EdgeX Buyback - Play: Review Personally, even though EdgeX engaged in some dirty tricks (noise regarding ED distribution), I unconsciously expected them to handle things cleanly in the post-TGE phase. With the circulating supply somewhat limited (though this was actually restricted by slashing the volume of those who farmed ED), and the team holding a significant amount of the supply, the buyback seemed like an intention to boost the price. (I suspect many others thought the same way.) Also, I thought that a buyback was the only thing they could do in the current situation, and that they would handle it well. I believed this situation could be an opportunity of sorts. So, predicting that the buyback would be properly disclosed, I took a position. (Of course, this is within the realm of trading, but I thought the probability and return would be high. I tried to minimize risk as much as possible by limiting the position size.) Furthermore, given the scale of the operation, I didn't see any reason not to handle it properly. I devised a plan to build a position before the buyback and profit from the subsequent pump. Later, the buyback dashboard was released, and the pump actually occurred. I recorded a decent profit. If there hadn't been any noise, I intended to keep holding and sell at around +$20,000. I thought it was the best course of action I could take in this scenario, minimizing risk, so I set up my plan accordingly. However, looking at the actual details of the buyback, the situation itself felt suspicious. If it was intentional, the handling of the matter was absurd. If it wasn't intentional, it was incompetence; if it was intentional, the team is the bad one, so I have nothing to say. After analyzing the transaction history together, we confirmed that the funds were being transferred from EdgeX Exchange (Spot Vault: acting as an exchange hot wallet) ——> BuyBack MultiSIG Wallet. Then isn't that not a problem? We are back to square one. Since team members secured a large volume of inventory, accurate verification is impossible unless we can confirm whether they actually purchased it. They might have simply moved their own inventory from A to B. A Buyback is required, but if the purchase isn't properly verified, it is merely a Transfer or Burn. However, from our perspective, we cannot verify whether they actually bought it, and even if they did, they should have ensured that this could be disclosed transparently from the start. They created a situation where they would be criticized even if they had simply bought and transferred the inventory cleanly. Why? Because they were not transparent. They handled it this way even though everyone knew full well that such problems would arise. Additionally, there were further incidents. They claimed to have already created a Buyback dashboard, but then consistently maintained that they were "in internal consultation" or "currently under production," and it was eventually disclosed belatedly. (Honestly, even I can build a buyback dashboard in under an hour using VIBE coding, so it shouldn't take this long to release this.) Furthermore, contrary to their statement after the TGE that they were "already conducting a buyback," the $Edge tokens were transferred to the Buyback wallet around 11:30 AM on April 1st. Not a single one can be confirmed with certainty. They might have just said, "We are currently in the middle of a buyback," and the circumstances suggest that is the case. The amount transferred to the Buyback wallet is approximately $10,000, and the transfers occur at intervals of roughly 15 to 30 minutes. If they had already bought the tokens and were transferring them to the Buyback wallet, they would have had to send a large quantity at once; sending small amounts over time is something that defies common sense. Naturally, due to this issue, the price plummeted immediately after a pump, and I liquidated my entire position at break-even. Furthermore, regarding the noise and issues that have existed since the past, as well as the excessive hype generated by referrals, everyone is aware that such incidents have been recurring, leading to delays in the TGE, massive volume slashing on the day of the event, a valuation that fell far short of expectations, and numerous other incidents. It is truly unbelievable that they are not handling any matters properly; it appears difficult to believe this is not intentional. If it wasn't intentional, that would truly be a miracle. There is a limit to what should be done, but I suspect they have crossed that line far too far. Many people are fed up with the way they handle everything improperly. Now, regardless of the token price, there is no longer any faith or trust in the team members. Therefore, it seems they will not even attempt to build risky positions, nor will they touch the token itself at all. From a purely personal perspective, I do not see this as a team I can fully support. It is mentally draining, and I judge the strategic risk to be too high.
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