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SoSo 정보 공지
03-13
🛞 Structural Shift of Bitcoin into an Institutional Asset (Source: ARK Invest, February 11, 2026) 1️⃣ Bitcoin is no longer a “selective technology” but a “strategic asset” 1. The most significant change in the current cycle ▪️Past: Experimental cryptocurrency ▪️Present: Asset included in institutional portfolios 2. Reasons why Bitcoin's value is rising ▪️Changes in the macro environment (monetary policy, liquidity) ▪️Increased structural demand (ETFs, corporations, nations) ▪️Role as a store of value similar to gold ▪️Reduced volatility and volatility 2️⃣ Macro Environment: Liquidity shifts back to risky assets 1. Current macro environment ▪️End of US QT ▪️Start of interest rate cut cycle ▪️Approximately $10 trillion in funds may shift to risky assets 2. These funds are likely to move into stocks, crypto, and other risky assets 3️⃣ Regulatory clarification facilitates institutional fund inflows 1. Representative policies Changes ▪️ US CLARITY Act Reorganization of Digital Asset Regulatory Framework ▫️ CFTC → Digital Commodities ▫️ SEC → Digital Securities 2. Reduction of Entry Barriers for Institutional Investors ▪️ Clarification of Various Regulations ▫️ Custody Regulations ▫️ Trading Regulations ▫️ Disclosure Regulations 4️⃣ ETFs, Corporations, and States as Structural Buyers of Bitcoin 1. Significant Increase in Structural Demand for Bitcoin ▪️ Impact of ETFs 2025 ▫️ ETFs + Corporate Treasuries ▫️ Absorbing 1.2 times more BTC than new supply ▪️ Current Holdings: Over 12% of total supply 2. Expansion of Corporate Holdings ▪️ Representative Examples ▫️ Coinbase ▫️ Block ▫️ Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) ▪️ Corporate BTC Holdings ▫️ 1.1 million BTC ▫️ 5.7% of total supply 5️⃣ Bitcoin is “Digital Gold” 1. Historical Relationship Between Gold and Bitcoin BTC Rise Patterns Following Gold Rise (Examples: 2016, 2019, 2020) 2. Present Gold +64.7% in 2025 vs. BTC -6.2% ▪️Since BTC is a high-beta version of gold, it has the potential to rise more significantly during a gold upcycle. 6️⃣ Market Maturity: Reduced Volatility 1. Past BTC Cycles ▪️Downs of 70–80% 2. Current Cycle ▪️Maximum downs of about 50% → Increased institutional participation → Increased liquidity → Market maturity 7️⃣ Long-term Investment Performance 1. Example 2020–2025 The worst investor who invested at the peak every year ▪️Investment: $6,000 ▪️2026-02-11 Result: Approx. $7,760 (Approx. 29% profit) 2. Key Lesson: Holding period matters more than timing 8️⃣ Conclusion: The question is no longer “Should I buy or not?” Key Questions for Bitcoin in 2026 1. Past "Will Bitcoin survive?" 2. Present "What percentage should I put in my portfolio?" #Tracking #USStocks #Bitcoin #BTC #Bitmine #BMNR #Circle #CRCL
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SoSo 정보 공지
03-03
Iran-US War and Bitcoin: Two Conflicting Forces How does Bitcoin react to geopolitical shocks? The notion that "war equals rise because it is digital gold" explains only half the reality. In reality, two mechanisms acting in opposite directions coexist, and which one is dominant depends on the duration of the war. Mechanism 1: Digital Gold — Short wars favor BTC Immediately after the outbreak of war, Bitcoin plummets. This is a temporary phenomenon caused by leveraged forced liquidation. Once liquidation ends, selling pressure dissipates, and a V-shaped rebound occurs as its "uncensored store of value" attribute comes into play. 2020 Soleimani Incident: -5% → +25% within 2 weeks 2022 Russia-Ukraine War: -8% → +17% within 2 weeks 2026 Iran-US War: -12% → +6% relief in progress within days The pattern is clear. If the war ends quickly, a short squeeze plus demand for safe haven assets drives the price up. Mechanism 2: Oil → Inflation → Interest Rates — A long war is disadvantageous for BTC If the war drags on, a completely different path is activated. Hormuz blockade → Oil price surge → Inflation reignites → Fed halts/re-raises interest rate cuts → Liquidity contraction → BTC declines 2022 was exactly this scenario. Prolonged oil war → Energy surge → Historical interest rate hike → BTC drops 78% from $69K to $15K. Bitcoin loses not to the "war," but to "liquidity contraction." Key point: The duration of the war is the switch. What we need to look at right now is not the Bitcoin chart, but oil prices (WTI) and interest rates (US10Y, FedWatch). If oil prices exceed $100 and remain there for a long time, Mechanism 2 is activated; if they stabilize, Mechanism 1 prevails. Remember this: The fear of war drives Bitcoin up, while the economic consequences of war drive Bitcoin down.
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