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[Crypto/TradFi Merger Update] 2026-03-11 08:00 (Beijing Time)
━━ Important News ━━
1. Reports that Iran is laying/preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a strong US statement and a false alarm regarding "escorting oil tankers," triggered sharp fluctuations in crude oil and risk assets. Multiple reports, citing intelligence, claimed that Iran recently deployed "dozens" of mines and still possesses the capability to rapidly deploy "hundreds." Market concerns have increased uncertainty regarding crude oil and refined oil transportation through the Strait. Trump demanded that Iran immediately clear the mines and warned of "unprecedented military consequences," stating that the US military had destroyed 10 "inactive minelayers." The White House subsequently clarified that "the Navy has not escorted any oil tankers through the Strait," but is evaluating options including escort. Oil prices fluctuated wildly between $77 and $90 per barrel, experiencing a rapid pullback of nearly 20% at one point before rebounding.
(BlockBeats | BlockBeats | BlockBeats | PANews | Odaily | Odaily | Odaily)
2. A U.S. federal judge rejected Kalshi's preliminary injunction application: the court upheld the state's priority in sports betting regulation. The court found insufficient evidence to suggest Congress intended to prioritize federal law over state sports betting regulation. Kalshi's argument that its event contracts should be regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, thus excluding state law, was not supported; Kalshi stated it will appeal. This case is considered a crucial test of the compliance boundaries of U.S. prediction markets (and similar platforms).
(BlockBeats)
3. US Democratic lawmakers plan to push for legislation to explicitly prohibit event trading contracts related to "war and death." The proposed legislation aims to tighten the scope of tradable themes for event contracts, which could directly impact the design and listing boundaries of forecast/event contract products in the United States.
(BlockBeats | TechFlow TechFlow)
4. The U.S. SEC will deepen its coordination with the CFTC: mechanisms such as joint meetings and company reviews will strengthen the signal of coordinated regulation of cryptocurrencies and derivatives, which may affect the compliance expectations and processes of trading platforms, brokers and related issuers.
(Odaily)
5. Senators seek compromise on stablecoin yield provisions to advance the Clarity Act.
Discussions focused on limiting rewards tied to account balances and allowing incentives tied to account activity, in order to strike a balance between preventing deposit outflows and preserving space for innovation.
(CoinDesk)
6. Ghana's securities regulator launches a 12-month pilot program for virtual asset trading: 11 companies are testing their products/services in a controlled environment, covering participants such as exchanges, payment providers, and asset/gold tokenization companies; those that meet the requirements after 6 months of pilot testing will receive a formal license.
(PANews)
7. Forbes estimates CZ(CZ)'s net worth at approximately $110 billion, an increase of approximately $47 billion year-on-year. The report states that the market estimates Binance's valuation at approximately $100 billion and provides media figures on Binance's revenue, trading volume, and market share.
(Forbes)
Market Analysis
1. CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting remains high. Data shows that the probability of keeping rates unchanged at the March meeting is about 97.3%-99.4%, and the probability of a 25bp rate cut is about 0.6%-2.7%; other data mentions that the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut by June is about 37.5%.
(BlockBeats | TechFlow TechFlow)
2. EIA significantly raises its average crude oil price forecast: Energy price center expected to shift upward.
The EIA projects Brent crude to reach $78.84 per barrel in 2026 (previous estimate $57.69) and WTI crude to reach $73.61 per barrel (previous estimate $53.42), and has also raised its 2027 forecast. This upward revision in energy price expectations may have spillover effects on the pricing of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies through inflation expectations and risk appetite.
(BlockBeats | Odaily | Odaily)
3. Concerns about oil market supply shocks have eased in stages, and a rebound in risk appetite has driven up crypto and related stocks. As concerns about supply shocks have cooled, market sentiment has improved, and Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks have risen in tandem.
(Odaily)
4. Bitcoin fluctuated around the 70,000 USDT mark, repeatedly rising and falling by about 1.6% in a single day, and briefly falling below 69,990 before rebounding, indicating significant short-term divergence.
(Odaily | Foresight News)
5. Short-term cooling of on-chain momentum: more like a "pullback after expansion" than a structural weakening. Analysis shows that the 30-day average transaction volume of BTC has fallen compared to the recent month/quarter, but is still higher than the 365-day average and significantly higher than the level 6 months ago.
(BlockBeats)
6. Bitwise CIO reiterates long-term path: Under conservative assumptions, Bitcoin may be comparable to gold in reaching $1 million. This view is based on the "store of value" narrative and the assumption of long-term penetration rate comparable to gold, emphasizing long-term rather than short-term predictions.
(Decrypt | The Block)
━━ Project Updates ━━
1. Bloomberg analysts: Goldman Sachs becomes the largest disclosed holder of the spot XRP ETF. As of the end of 2025, the top 30 disclosed holders held a total of approximately $211 million in shares; Goldman Sachs held approximately $154 million, ranking first. The report also states that the related ETF has seen cumulative net inflows exceeding $1 billion, and its total assets under management (AUM) reached approximately $1.44 billion as of last week. The analysis notes that 13F filings only cover a portion of investors.
