#If Israel and Iran go to war, what will happen to crypto assets?#
On June 13, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran, causing the crypto market to fall sharply, with Bitcoin falling below $103,000. How is the war going? Will the crypto market continue to fall or rebound from the bottom?
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Crypto Chase
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Bitcoin at 60K in July 2024 was a very different BTC than at 60K today. In July 2024, Trump raised his fist after his attempted assassination, guaranteeing his presidency, which was back then viewed as extemely bullish for markets. #Bitcoin began pricing this in immediately. In early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs had just been approved and a brand new wave of institutional capital was finally able to access $BTC. In July 2024, Microstrategy had an mNAV around 2 and were aggressively adding to their Bitcoin holdings. In late 2024, they began buying in borderline maniacal fashion. In 2024, the narrative of Bitcoin being a hedge against inflation was still very strong. Optimism was at an all time high and the sky was the limit. We were in price discovery and a $250,000 dollar price target felt a lot more realistic than zero. In 2026, Trump has already been fully priced into the market, and confidence in him has waned. In 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen 2.9 billion in outflows since mid January and roughly 8 billion since late 2025. Institutional capital is exiting, not providing a brand new influx of buying. In 2026, Microstrategy is heavily underwater and their mNAV often teeters on the 1.0 level, where their guidance claims they will no longer dilute shareholders to fund more Bitcoin purchases. In late 2025 into 2026, the inflation hedge narrative has struggled. Equities and commodities saw parabolic advances, while Bitcoin dumped repeatedly. This simultaneously has the major affect of hurting investor confidence. When you’re watching every asset class moon but yours, many leave the loser and chase the winners. Today, the once extreme optimism in Bitcoin has diminished, for many of the reasons discussed above. The all time high is in and there’s A LOT of work to do to get back to those levels. The market will NEED fresh catalysts and fresh buyers. This is something Bitcoin has overcome before, but the potential for returns back then was also much greater. Bitcoin at 60K is a very different investment than Bitcoin at the 3K or 15K bottoms. The multiples from those levels were still extremely attractive. The multiples from 60K are much less so in my opinion. This isn’t to call for the death of Bitcoin, but to provide you with perspective of where we’re currently at (through my lens of course). There will certainly be others with differing opinions and I hope your investments work out for you. I don’t think we’re going to zero, but I do this think recovery will take time, and I certainly don’t think we’re out of the deep waters just yet. Good luck my friends, be well.
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Anthony Scaramucci
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Michael Novogratz and I did a bonus market volatility episode discuss all the madness in the world today.@novogratz Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Listen on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Timestamps 0:00 Anthony & Novo are back! 0:54 Crypto winter explained: what triggered the sudden Bitcoin drop 2:33 Politics, Trump, and why crypto legislation is suddenly at risk 4:52 Was there forced selling or margin calls in crypto? 7:08 Is Bitcoin’s long-term narrative broken—or just bruised? 9:23 AI, software automation, and the coming white-collar job disruption 12:32 Political fallout of AI job losses and the future of work 16:35 Global market rotation: why capital is moving out of the US 23:02 Investing advice for anxious individuals with $50K–$200K
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Catalina Castro
🔥ATTENTION🔥 IF THE 4-YEAR #BITCOIN CYCLE CONTINUES… IT WOULD REACH A FLOOR NEAR THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS ON EE.UU. 📉Each cycle since 2013 has shown the same pattern: ▪️2 years of accumulation (yellow) ▪️1 year of strong growth (green) ▪️1 year of correction/bear market (red) 👉According to this logic, we would now be in the bear market phase, with a possible bottom between September and November 2026. And why does that date matter⁉️ ▪️The midterm elections are held in November ▪️Trump would need to win to maintain control of Congress ▪️Without that control, he could be removed from office through impeachment 🧨This implies a strong incentive for him to implement measures favorable to the financial markets before November Is there data that supports this theory⁉️ 🔹American households have never been so heavily invested In stocks: 47.1% of its financial assets are stocks 🔹A sharp market crash would be politically catastrophic 🔹Trump knows this… and needs Wall Street on his side 🔹That's why, closer to the election, he may begin implementing everything he promised (from $2,000 checks to record tax cuts) 📍If the Bitcoin cycle repeats itself, we could be near a technical and political bottom, with a high probability of a rebound by mid-October 2026.
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