K1 Research OnChain Insight (2026-02-04)
1️⃣ [Macro] Macro Environment: Policy Shocks, Geopolitical Risks, and Surge in Cross-Asset Volatility
• During the partial US federal government shutdown, Bitcoin briefly fell to $72,800, reaching its lowest level since November 2024. Following the House's 217-214 vote to pass the budget bill, which ended the shutdown, a technical rebound occurred across risk assets.
• Geopolitical risks were resurfaced as military tensions between the two countries rose ahead of the US-Iran high-level talks. The Trump administration accepted Iran's request and shifted the negotiating venue from Turkey to Oman, with the talks scheduled for Friday.
• Gold prices surged 7% in one day, marking their largest one-day gain since 2008, while silver prices also surged 13%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange raised margin requirements and tightened price limits, and gold's 30-day volatility surpassed 44%, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. This surpasses Bitcoin (approximately 39%).
• JP Morgan assessed that family offices now view AI as a key investment theme, rather than cryptocurrency.
• China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has instructed the country to strengthen strategic investment in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces through a "new national system," based on technological maturity and market readiness.
• India maintains its 30% cryptocurrency tax while introducing a strengthened penalty system (effective April 1) that imposes daily fines and fixed penalties for failure to report or misreport.
• NVIDIA is reportedly investing $20 billion in OpenAI, and the deal is reportedly nearing completion.
2️⃣ [Corporate Treasuries & ETFs] Evolution of Corporate Treasury Strategies and ETF Structures
• Cipher Mining plans to issue $2 billion in private placement bonds to expand its data centers, and capital expenditures on mining infrastructure continue to be prioritized.
• SWC, the UK's largest Bitcoin treasury firm, has listed on the London Stock Exchange Main Board.
• DBS Bank recently purchased an additional 24,898 ETH over the past week, continuing the trend of major Asian financial institutions accumulating core assets at low prices.
• Strategy is nearing its eighth consecutive month of decline, with MSTR's stock price down approximately 75% from its November 2024 high. mNAV has fallen to 1.09, and if the stock price continues to weaken, the BTC financial expansion strategy leveraging the equity premium may be limited.
• VistaShares launched an ETF that uses US Treasury bonds as the underlying asset and provides Bitcoin exposure through an options structure, integrating BTC risk into traditional defensive products.
• Tron Inc. purchased an additional 175,900 TRX, increasing its total holdings to 679.6 billion TRX and strengthening its corporate TRX financial model.
• The Avalanche Policy Coalition established an advisory board, and a UK House of Lords joined Ava Labs' governance to strengthen global regulatory communication.
• Germany's ING is expanding its cryptocurrency ETP and ETN offerings in partnership with Bitwise and VanEck, expanding the legal participation of European banks in crypto.
3️⃣ [Regulation & Adoption] Expanding Regulatory Boundaries and Entering Real-Use Infrastructure
• Upbit partner bank KBank applied for a trademark related to a stablecoin wallet ahead of its IPO, signaling the potential for traditional banks to enter the stablecoin infrastructure.
• Nevada has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase for alleged "unlicensed gambling," intensifying regulatory pressure on prediction markets and derivatives.
• Korean fintech company Hecto has joined Circle Payments Network (CPN) to provide legal stablecoin payment and remittance infrastructure for businesses.
• The Spanish Red Cross launched RedChain, a blockchain-based relief distribution system, in partnership with BLOOCK and Billions Network.
• Y Combinator allows founders to receive investment funds in stablecoins, strengthening the institutional position of stablecoins in startup finance.
• xAI is accelerating the integration of AI and financial markets by hiring cryptocurrency experts to develop AI-based trading models.
4️⃣ [Project & Narrative] Shifting Focus to Real Profits and Infrastructure Amid Restructuring
• $AAVE : Aave DAO unveiled ARFC, Phase 1 of its V3 multi-chain strategy, and proposed discontinuing deployments of zkSync, Metis, and Soneium. Future new chains will require a guaranteed revenue of at least $2 million per year. Aave Labs will discontinue the Avara brand (including Lens) and focus on DeFi.
• $CHZ : Chiliz plans to launch a fan token in the US market and use 10% of the related revenue for CHZ buybacks and burns.
• $FLR : Flare has expanded its XRPFi platform by supporting XRP lending through Morpho.
• $ONDO : MetaMask has integrated Ondo Finance, enabling access to tokenized stocks, ETFs, and commodities. Global Listing, which allows for near-real-time on-chain liquidity of US stock IPOs, has also been released.
• $LDO: Lido launched stVaults, a modular staking infrastructure based on stETH, with Linea, Nansen, and institutional clients joining as initial partners.
• $STEP: Step Finance suffered a hack that resulted in the theft of approximately $30 million in assets.
• $WLFI: A member of the UAE royal family acquired a 49% stake in WLFI for $500 million.
• Vitalik Buterin pointed out that the current Ethereum rollup-centric roadmap is not progressing sufficiently, and that L2 should focus on differentiated applications rather than "branded sharding."
5️⃣ Research to Watch
• Analysis of the Causes of Cryptocurrency Declines
x.com/goodalexander/status/201...
• Structural Growth Path of Prediction Markets
www.veradiverdict.com/p/state-...
• Grayscale: Currency Dilution Trades and Scarce Assets
research.grayscale.com/market-...
• Turning Point in the AI Agent Economy
x.com/Delphi_Digital/status/20...
