Analysis of PAXG's short-term premium impact and OKX listing arbitrage
Key Points
Current Price : $4,410 (as of 00:32 UTC, October 17, 2025), 24-hour increase of 3.5-4.2%. Premium : Maintains a 0.5-1.5% premium over spot gold. Arbitrage Current Situation : Spreads across exchanges have narrowed to 0.1-0.3%, leaving limited arbitrage opportunities.
Market Overview
PAXG fundamental analysis
PAX Gold (PAXG) is a gold-backed token issued by Paxos Trust, with each token representing one ounce of LBMA-certified physical gold reserves. Its current market capitalization is $1.35-1.38B , with a circulating supply of approximately 313,000-314,000 PAXG, fully backed by an equivalent amount of gold reserves.
24-hour trading data :
- Global trading volume: $419M-$658M (daily growth of 9-70%)
- Volume/Market Cap Ratio: 31-51%, indicating high activity
- Price range: $4,247-$4,731
OKX listing details
OKX officially launched PAXG/USDT spot trading at 07:00 UTC on October 15, 2025 , followed by the PAXG/USD trading pair at 08:00 UTC on October 16. Chaincatcher will be launched using a pre-opening mechanism, initially limiting single orders to no more than $10,000.
| date | Trading Pairs | Time (UTC) | Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 | PAXG/USDT | 07:00 | 1 hour before opening, limit order |
| October 16 | PAXG/USD | 08:00 | Fiat currency pairs for US users |
On-chain activity analysis
On-chain activity has increased significantly since launch:
| date | Transfer amount | PAXG trading volume | US dollar equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 | 17,564 | 46,292 | ~$192M |
| October 15 (launch date) | 14,932 | 61,769 | ~$261M |
| October 16 | 22,669 | 92,972 | ~$403M |
Key findings :
- Trading volume on launch day surged 28%
- The next day, it hit a new high of $403M
- Multiple large transfers (>1,000 PAXG) indicate institutional participation and possible arbitrage activity
- Paxos minting activity increases, supply expands to meet demand
Premium structure analysis
Price comparison among various exchanges
| Exchange | Current Price (USD) | 24-hour trading volume | ±2% depth | Backwardation relative to gold spot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKX (New) | $4,411.80 | $4.67M (1.1%) | $46K/$101K | +1.3% |
| Binance | $4,398.65 | $142.79M (21.7%) | $953K/$788K | +0.9% |
| Coinbase | $4,267.36 | $3.39M (0.8%) | $147K/$247K | +0.5% |
| MEXC | $4,267.34 | $26.1M (6.2%) | $135K/$495K | +0.5% |
Premium Features :
- Global PAXG maintains a 0.5-1.5% premium to spot gold ($4,356/oz)
- The premium reflects the convenience of tokenization: instant settlement and fragmented holdings
- OKX prices are basically consistent with those of mainstream exchanges, with no significant price difference
Arbitrage opportunity assessment
Current arbitrage space
Limited arbitrage window :
- Coinbase → OKX : Potential +3.4% spread, but mitigated to <1% by USD/USDT conversion and cross-platform transfer costs
- Small price difference between exchanges : 0.1-0.3%, after deducting the handling fee (0.1%) and gas fee ($5-20), the net profit is very small
Arbitrage Constraints :
- Ethereum network transfer costs ($5-20 gas fee)
- 0.1% transaction fee for each platform
- OKX New Listing Limit (Single Transaction Limit of $10K)
- Fast price convergence (<1 hour)
Technical risk warning
Technical indicator warnings :
- RSI is extremely overbought : The daily RSI reaches 86, indicating the risk of a short-term correction.
- Price Structure : Currently at $4,398, it is 1-7% above all moving averages.
- Volatility : ATR expanded to $53-67, indicating increased volatility after the launch
- Support : Key support lies at $4,304 (EMA12) and $4,182 (lower Bollinger Band)
Changes in market microstructure
Improved liquidity
The listing on OKX has improved the overall liquidity of PAXG:
- Depth improvement : Global ±2% depth increased to $16M+, supporting $1M+ large transactions
- Price discovery : Still dominated by Binance (21.7% share), OKX contributes <1%
- Bid-ask spread : The spread on major exchanges remains in a tight range of 0.03-0.3%.
Arbitrage strategy recommendations
Short-term strategy :
- Monitor the spread : Watch for arbitrage triggers when the OKX vs Binance spread is >0.5%.
- Limit order : Place a buy order on a cheaper platform and sell when the price difference closes.
- Risk control : Single arbitrage target 0.5-1%, stop when the price difference > 2% (execution risk)
Long-term observation :
- OKX's trading volume has grown to over 10% of Binance's (a mature indicator of listing maturity).
- 4-hour RSI divergence signal (overbought digestion)
- Funding rate > 0.01% (bull squeeze signal)
in conclusion
PAXG benefited from gold's record high. The OKX listing enhanced accessibility but has yet to drive significant trading volume (accounting for only 1%). The premium structure remained stable at 1% , with price discovery still dominated by Binance. Global liquidity is strong ($16M ±2% depth), supporting million-dollar transactions.
Arbitrage opportunities are currently limited to a narrow spread of 0.1-0.3% across major exchanges , necessitating close monitoring of OKX's liquidity growth. Technicals suggest strong bullish momentum, but the market is extremely overbought, with a risk of a pullback towards $4,300. With increasing OKX trading volume and market volatility, arbitrage opportunities may expand in the future.