Gold vs. Bitcoin 2025: Is digital gold really left behind?
Core conclusions
Gold has indeed significantly outperformed Bitcoin in 2025 , with a year-to-date return of 59%, more than triple Bitcoin's 18% gain. However, this gap reflects more a shift in short-term risk appetite than the end of the "digital gold" narrative. Institutional flows show strong support for both, suggesting investors are building diversified, inflation-protected portfolios.
Price performance comparison analysis
Significant performance gap in 2025
| assets | Year-to-date return | October performance | Current Price | Historical highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | +59.29% | +18.95% | $4,334.64/oz | 45 record highs |
| Bitcoin | +18.87% | -5.5% | $108,030 | 14% pullback in October |
Gold recorded its best annual performance since 1979 in 2025, rising from approximately $2,720 per ounce at the beginning of the year to its current level. Although Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,272 in early October, it subsequently fell sharply to a low of around $107,000.
Key driver analysis
Gold's strength factors:
- Central bank gold purchase demand: Net purchases by the central bank will exceed 1,000 tons in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of strong growth.
- Geopolitical tensions: US-China trade dispute and government shutdown risks drive safe-haven demand
- Fed rate cut expectations: 25 basis point rate cut expectations support gold's record performance
- ETF inflows: $64 billion in total for the year, $26 billion in Q3 alone
Bitcoin is relatively weak:
- Crypto Outflows: Net Outflows Exceed $21 Billion in October, Intensifying Selling Pressure
- The technical picture deteriorates: the price breaks below key moving averages, and the MACD shows a bearish signal.
- Volatility risk: Compared to the steady rise of gold, Bitcoin has greater volatility
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin faces a crucial test
Multi-Time Frame Technical Signals
Bitcoin’s current technical structure is weak, with the price hovering at $108,696, breaking below the 12/26 EMA on all time frames.
| Timeframe | RSI | MACD | Bollinger Bands Position | Trend judgment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 42 | -38 (bearish) | Close to the lower limit $106,843 | Weakness |
| 4 hours | 36 | -206 (deep bearish) | Below the middle line $111,327 | Downtrend |
| Daily Line | 38 | -1,369 (strongly bearish) | Well below the middle track of $116,647 | Long-term weakness |
Key support and resistance levels
- Strong support : $106,800 (lower Bollinger Band + liquidation zone $83M)
- Strong resistance : $110,000 (moving average + option max pain level)
Derivatives data shows that the total holdings are $73.6B (24h + 2.43%), but there is a risk of $1.63B in long liquidations below $104,637, and a fall below this level could trigger a chain reaction.
Market sentiment and narrative shifts
Social media discussion trends
X platform analysis shows that the discussion of gold vs. Bitcoin is complex:
Gold supporters' view:
- Emphasize gold's millennial history as a safe haven and its central bank endorsement
- Believe that the current performance proves that gold is still the ultimate safe-haven asset
- Gold is more reliable amid geopolitical risks
Bitcoin advocates hit back:
- View gold's rise as part of a "currency devaluation trade," with Bitcoin to follow
- Emphasize Bitcoin's technological advantages as "programmable money"
- Institutions such as Morgan Stanley call Bitcoin "digital gold," and the logo's recognition has increased.
JP Morgan analysts named this trend the "debasement trade," with both gold and Bitcoin benefiting from declining confidence in the dollar.
KOL opinion analysis
Key opinion leaders tend to view the two as complementary rather than competitive:
- Citi raises Bitcoin target : favors its scale and liquidity as digital gold
- Morgan Stanley changes policy : allows advisors to directly allocate crypto assets, calling Bitcoin digital gold
- Institutional "Dual Holding" Strategy : BlackRock and others simultaneously launch gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs
Comparison of ETF fund flows
Gap in Asset Management
| ETF Types | Total AUM | Inflow in 2025 | Inflow stability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ETFs | $472 billion | $64 billion | Positive inflow for 4 consecutive months |
| Bitcoin ETF | $153.55 billion | $62.45 billion | Volatility is high, but overall inflow is positive |
Although the AUM of gold ETFs is more than three times that of Bitcoin ETFs, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs is almost on par with that of gold, showing the strong interest of institutions in the concept of "digital gold".
Institutional allocation trends
Gold ETF institutional holdings:
- Q3 institutional inflows dominated (North America/Europe contributed >80%)
- 73% of central banks/institutions view gold as a "strategic asset"
- Holdings increased by 397 tons (first half of 2025)
Bitcoin ETF institutional holdings:
- IBIT and other funds hold >6.8% of BTC supply
- Q4 inflows are expected to break the $36 billion record (Bitwise forecast)
- Institutions such as pension funds began to allocate directly
Market value comparison and future potential
Current market value gap
- Total gold market value : approximately $24-28 trillion
- Bitcoin's total market capitalization : approximately $2.3-2.5 trillion
- Market capitalization ratio : Gold is about 10 times larger than Bitcoin
Catch-up space analysis
For Bitcoin to reach gold market parity, the price would need to reach approximately $1.44 million per coin. While this may seem unrealistic, considering:
- Bitcoin's market capitalization grew from 0 to $2.5 trillion in 15 years
- Digital trends and preferences of younger generations
- Advantages of convenient institutional configuration
In the long run, there is still substantial room for growth.
Correlation analysis: from synchronization to differentiation
Bitcoin's 30-day rolling correlation with gold experienced significant volatility in 2025:
- The correlation reached a high of 0.85 during the period of abundant liquidity
- There has been a clear divergence recently, with gold performing better in risk aversion.
- Breaking the traditional narrative of "digital gold" rising synchronously
This divergence reflects the nuanced roles of the two in investors' minds: gold is more of a defensive safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is seen as an offensive growth asset.
Conclusion: The status of digital gold has not been overturned
In the short term , gold has indeed surpassed Bitcoin in 2025, with a 59% increase far exceeding Bitcoin's 18%. This is mainly due to:
- Global geopolitical tensions drive demand for traditional safe-haven assets
- The central bank's large-scale gold purchases provide fundamental support
- Bitcoin faces technical adjustments and capital outflow pressure
From a long-term perspective , Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" has not been fundamentally shaken:
- Institutional recognition continues to grow : ETF inflows reached $62.45 billion, approaching gold levels
- Obvious technological advantages : programmability, portability, 24/7 trading
- Generational shift trend : Young investors prefer digital assets
- Supply scarcity : 21 million cap vs. continued gold mining
Investment Implications : Under current market conditions, a rational strategy might be to build a portfolio of gold and Bitcoin, rather than choosing one over the other. Gold provides a stable safe-haven foundation, while Bitcoin offers growth resilience. Both have value in the context of the "currency devaluation trade."
While Bitcoin has temporarily lagged behind, its long-term narrative as "digital gold" remains intact. The key lies in breaking through the $110,000 technical resistance and regaining market confidence.