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<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>The credit risk of the US banking industry exploded, BTC fell below $105,000, market panic intensified, a new 15-week low, and $1 billion in liquidation.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>BTC is supported at 107500 in the short term. If you are aggressive, you can long in batches with targets at 110000, 111500 and 113500, and stop loss at 106500. If the closing price falls below the stop loss point, you need to withdraw all the funds. It is suitable for a quick entry and exit with high leverage. If the volume breaks through 109254 at the same time, you can increase your position. If it does not break through, keep a light position and wait and see<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20861981"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/58ce43c44320a010f8d12aeed31d9d83.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20863687"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/822557d847e11d566d7c967c3bfee1ae.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.The daily structure has shown a correction signal. After three upward pushes, the short K-lines are dense. If it falls below the main trend line and forms a lower low, it will tend to fluctuate and fall. T will be done in the range, and stop loss will be set if it fails<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20863970"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/cfb25acc8ff4b1815976e4fa8ca01420.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20862220"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/cfb25acc8ff4b1815976e4fa8ca01420.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.Whales use 40x leverage to heavily position long orders. After short-term profits, they will take profits in batches and maintain the cost of the remaining positions. This is suitable for aggressive short-term traders and trend followers. If it retreats to 107800-107900, you can try to buy again with a stop loss of 105900<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20861045"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20860054"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/4ad0c7e0e6881ef25d942a9542bbf731.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.Gold is attracting strong funds, and Bitcoin may have a major shakeout in the short term. If gold continues to hit new highs and BTC falls below the 20-day line, you can follow the short position with a light position and take profit when it rebounds to around 112,000<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20861496"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/4b6925a4b51db3410485d02ad815a1c4.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20863463"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/865749418e7f3de4c821f6bd0d4700b9.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-18 09:40</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Analysis of the credit risk shock in the US banking industry: Is Bitcoin under pressure or a safe haven?</h1><h2> Key Points</h2><p> <strong>Banking Crisis</strong> : On October 16, Zions Bank and Western Alliance Bank disclosed approximately $150 million in total losses from nonperforming loans related to borrower fraud, triggering a sharp drop in regional bank stocks. <strong>Market Impact</strong> : The KBW Regional Bank Index plummeted 6.3%, safe-haven gold reached a new high, and Bitcoin fell below $105,000. <strong>Bitcoin Performance: In the short term, it exhibited risky asset characteristics, falling alongside the stock market. However, historically, digital assets</strong> often perform as safe-haven assets in the aftermath of banking crises.</p><h2> Banking crisis details</h2><h3> Core Events</h3><p> <strong>Zions Bank (ZION)</strong> disclosed that its subsidiary, California Bank &amp; Trust, had $60 million in commercial loans subject to &quot;clear misrepresentations and contractual breaches&quot; related to borrower fraud involving distressed commercial mortgage funds. The bank has decided to write off the full $50 million and initiate legal action to recover the funds.</p><p> <strong>Western Alliance Bank (WAL),</strong> which separately discloses exposure to the same or related borrowers, filed a lawsuit in August against Cantor Group V LLC, alleging fraud through false title policies that concealed prior liens and seeking to recover about $100 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-regional-bank-stocks-hit-by-zions-charge-off-fraud-allegations-2025-10-16/">million</a> .</p><h3> Market impact scale</h3><table><thead><tr><th> bank</th><th> Direct losses</th><th> Stock price decline</th><th> Market impact</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Zions Bank</td><td> $50 million write-off</td><td> -13.1%</td><td> Hit a 6-month low</td></tr><tr><td> Western Alliance</td><td> $100 million recovery</td><td> -10.8%</td><td> Erasing recent gains</td></tr><tr><td> Jefferies</td><td> Related exposure</td><td> -8-10%</td><td> Monthly drop of 25%</td></tr><tr><td> KBW Regional Bank Index</td><td> -</td><td> -6.3%</td><td> Biggest one-day drop since April</td></tr></tbody></table><h2> Performance of global safe-haven assets</h2><h3> Traditional safe-haven assets surged</h3><p> <strong>U.S. Treasury bonds</strong> : The 10-year yield plummeted from 4.05% to 3.95%, the lowest since April; the 2-year yield fell to 3.39%, a three-year low. Bond prices rose for three consecutive weeks <a href="https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-10-17/doc-infueany7473629.shtml?cre=tianyi&amp;mod=pchp&amp;loc=6&amp;r=0&amp;rfunc=14&amp;tj=cxvertical_pc_hp&amp;tr=12">as</a> investors flocked to the safest assets.</p><p> <strong>Precious metals soared</strong> : gold broke through a new record of $4,378/oz (+3.1%), rising 8.5% for the week, the biggest gain since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008; silver rose to $54.38/oz (+3.8%), breaking through the historical high in 1980.</p><p> <strong>Safe-haven currencies</strong> : The Japanese yen rose above 150 against the US dollar, the Swiss franc hit a 15-year high, and the US dollar index <a href="https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3031513">weakened</a> by 0.8%.</p><h2> Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Market Performance</h2><h3> Price trend analysis</h3><p> <strong>Current Level</strong> : $104,926 (below the key moving average, down about 6% from the $111,500 high) <strong>Trend Status</strong> : Bearish momentum in the short and medium term, the price fell below the daily SMA200 ($107,000), confirming bearish control</p><table><thead><tr><th> Timeframe</th><th> RSI levels</th><th> MACD Status</th><th> Key signals</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> 1 hour</td><td> 24.5 (deeply oversold)</td><td> Bear Market Spread (-330)</td><td> Close to the lower Bollinger Band support</td></tr><tr><td> 4 hours</td><td> 27.6 (oversold)</td><td> Depth negative value (-457)</td><td> ADX 45.2 confirms a strong bearish trend</td></tr><tr><td> Daily Line</td><td> 33.3 (nearly oversold)</td><td> Strong Bearish (-1,610)</td><td> Testing SMA200 support </td></tr></tbody></table><p><reference tool_id="call_96489518" category="heatmap" project="BTC" description="BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-17 09:56 UTC"/></p><h3> Support and resistance level analysis</h3><table><thead><tr><th> type</th><th> Price</th><th> strength</th><th> in accordance with</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>support</strong></td><td> $105,000</td><td> powerful</td><td> The lower bands of the Bollinger Bands on multiple time frames are converging.</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>support</strong></td><td> $104,000</td><td> middle</td><td> Extending downside targets, long liquidation gathers</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>resistance</strong></td><td> $107,000</td><td> powerful</td><td> Daily SMA200, short liquidation area</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>resistance</strong></td><td> $110,000</td><td> middle</td><td> 4H Bollinger Bands middle track, the biggest pain point position </td></tr></tbody></table><p><reference tool_id="call_52120772" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="BTC" description="BTC liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-17 09:56 UTC"/></p><h3> Derivatives market data</h3><p> <strong>Futures sentiment</strong> : Open interest fell 1.77% to $71 billion, in line with the price drop (weak hands exited the market); funding rates were slightly positive but the amplitude was small, indicating balanced leverage.</p><p> <strong>Options Flows</strong> : Total open interest is $54.9 billion (-5.1%), with the biggest pain point around $111,000, with put options dominating near-term contracts. <reference tool_id="call_26337527" category="mix_bar_line_options" project="BTC" description="BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date"/></p><p> <strong>Liquidation Risk</strong> : Total 24-hour liquidations of $370 million (83% long), confirming the cascading effect from the $111,500 high.</p><h2> Social Sentiment and Market Narratives</h2><h3> Community Response Analysis</h3><p> <strong>Short-term bearishness dominates</strong> : Users are disappointed with Bitcoin&#39;s performance during banking stress, highlighting its characteristics as a risk-on asset rather than a safe haven. The &quot;digital gold&quot; narrative is being questioned as Bitcoin&#39;s decline is in line with the stock market, while gold reaches new highs.</p><p> <strong>Expectations of institutional adoption</strong> : Optimism points to the potential for institutional entry, with BBVA launching Bitcoin buying and selling services for millions of European clients and JPMorgan setting a target price of $165,000. MicroStrategy&#39;s Bitcoin-backed stable income product has been hailed as a &quot;Trojan Horse&quot; to attract pension funds and sovereign capital.</p><p> <strong>Relevance controversy</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Bearish view</strong> : Critics like Jesse Colombo point to Bitcoin&#39;s plunge vs. gold&#39;s surge as evidence of its speculative nature</li><li> <strong>Bullish View</strong> : Anthony Pompliano believes geopolitical uncertainty should drive Bitcoin buying, not selling</li><li> <strong>Neutral View</strong> : VanEck predicts Bitcoin could become a global reserve asset by 2050</li></ul><h2> Historical Comparison: Crypto Performance During Banking Stress Events</h2><h3> 2023 SVB Crisis Comparison</h3><p> <strong>Initial Reaction</strong> : Bitcoin initially plummeted 20% (from ~$22,000 to $17,500), sending USDC de-pegging to $0.87 and a 10-15% loss in total market capitalization.</p><p> <strong>Later Performance</strong> : However, BTC rebounded 50% to $28,000 within a few weeks, outperforming gold (+8%) and the stock market (S&amp;P 500 -5%). Research shows that Bitcoin exhibits &quot;partial safe-haven&quot; properties during bank-specific stress.</p><p> <strong>Current divergence</strong> : The 2025 scenario shows similar initial risk asset behavior, but ETF inflows and institutional services suggest a potential future decline in correlation with traditional markets.</p><h2> Conclusion and Outlook</h2><p> <strong>Short-term Outlook</strong> : Bitcoin is currently acting as a risk-on asset, falling in tandem with the stock market amidst pressure in the banking sector. Technically, it appears to be deeply oversold. If support at $105,000 holds, it could trigger a technical rally towards resistance at $107,000.</p><p> <strong>Mid-term outlook</strong> : Historically, Bitcoin exhibits risk-on characteristics in the early stages of a banking crisis, but as trust in the traditional financial system declines, it often transitions to a digital safe-haven asset. Current institutional adoption trends (ETFs, banking services) may accelerate this shift.</p><p> <strong>Key observations</strong> :</p><ul><li> Will the key support of $105,000 be maintained?</li><li> RSI divergence signal confirmation (price is making new low but RSI is moving higher)</li><li> Exchange reserves further outflow (down 5.5% on the 30th)</li><li> Traditional safe-haven assets continue to perform</li></ul><p> The market is at a critical point where the characteristics of risky assets and safe-haven assets are transitioning. It will be under pressure in the short term but may benefit from the structural shift in the medium and long term due to the declining trust in the traditional banking system.</p>
