Analysis of Bitcoin Selling Pressure on Mt. Gox: Assessing Market Readiness

Core Conclusion

As of October 20, 2025, Mentougou still holds 34,689 BTC (approximately $3.9 billion) and faces a final repayment deadline on October 31. While there is theoretically a potential sell-off of $2.4 billion, multiple indicators suggest the market is well prepared: exchange reserves continue to decline by 5.5%, on-chain capital outflows dominate, and technical indicators show accumulation signals. Social sentiment dismisses this as "exaggerated FUD," but historical data suggests the 2024 distribution will not have a significant impact. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around $108,600, providing the foundation to absorb potential selling pressure.

Analysis of the current situation in Mentougou

Remaining positions

• Current holdings : 34,689 BTC, valued at approximately $3.9 billion (based on a BTC price of $112,500)
• Distribution progress : Since July 2024, approximately 107,000 BTC have been distributed (75% of the total recovery pool of 142,000 BTC)
• Key timeline : October 31, 2025 is the final deadline for base repayments, early lump-sum payments, and interim payments

Historical distribution impact

During the repayment process that began in July 2024, although a large amount of BTC was distributed through exchanges such as Kraken and Bitstamp, the price of Bitcoin actually broke through the $100,000 mark during the distribution period, indicating that the market was fully prepared for this expected supply increase.

Market technical analysis

Price Action and Support and Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,640, with a neutral to slightly bearish technical outlook:

• Key Support : $107,864 (200-day moving average) and $103,000-107,000 range
• Resistance : $111,000-112,000, with stronger resistance at $115,000-116,000
• Technical indicators : Daily RSI is 40 (close to oversold), MACD histogram is negative but the downward momentum is weakening

Exchange liquidity analysis

• Reserves Decline : Exchange BTC reserves have fallen from 2.56 million to 2.42 million (-5.5%) over the past 30 days, indicating that holders are moving BTC to cold storage.
• Capital Flows : There was a net outflow on 4 of the past 7 days, with a net outflow of 1,075 BTC on October 19, indicating no acute selling pressure.
• Volume Pattern : Average daily volume is $7.9 billion, and CMF (Money Flow Indicator) is positive, indicating net accumulation.

Derivatives Market Conditions

• Open interest : Totaling $70 billion, up 2.18% over 24 hours, indicating building positions but stable prices, suggesting accumulation rather than speculative frenzy
• Funding rate : Slightly positive (0.005% on Binance/Bybit), longs slightly overleveraged but not to extreme levels
• Liquidation risk : Liquidation risk is low around $108,800, but a drop below $107,000 could trigger the liquidation of $515 million in long positions

Social sentiment and market reaction

Trader sentiment

Discussions on social media show that traders' concerns about the Mentougou distribution have shifted from initial panic to relative optimism. The main narratives include:

• "Exaggerated FUD" : Market participants generally believe that the selling pressure in Mentougou is overhyped
• Absorption capacity : Emphasizes that the current market value of US$2.2 trillion has greater absorption capacity than the US$140 billion in 2018
• Holding behavior : Most creditors choose to hold for the long term rather than sell

KOL opinion summary

Well-known analysts generally take a bullish stance: x.com

• Most people view Mentougou and other FUD (such as geopolitical tensions) as noise.
• Structural bull market logic underscoring Bitcoin's monthly upward trend
• It is believed that the selling pressure has been basically absorbed and the remaining distribution is unlikely to overwhelm demand.

Historical comparison and market maturity

2018 vs 2024 comparison

• 2017-2018 : Trustees sold 35,841 BTC ($360 million), triggering a 50% drop in the $140 billion market cap.
• Distribution in 2024 : 100,000 BTC distributed through exchanges, but Bitcoin price breaks all-time high
• Market maturity : The current market capitalization is more than 15 times that of 2018, with daily trading volume reaching tens of billions of US dollars and significantly enhanced absorption capacity.

Quantitative analysis of selling pressure

Based on historical patterns, it is estimated that approximately 64% (22,253 BTC) of the remaining 34,689 BTC may be sold through exchanges, representing approximately $2.5 billion at current prices. However, the phased distribution and OTC channels are expected to significantly reduce the impact on the spot market.

Risk Assessment and Conclusion

Short-term risk factors

• Concentrated selling possible before the October 31 deadline
• Macroeconomic pressures (US-China trade tensions, $1.2 billion in ETF outflows)
• A technical breakdown below $108,000 could trigger a move down to $107,000.

Positive factors

• The continued decline in exchange reserves indicates a long-term holding trend
• On-chain accumulation signals are stronger than distribution signals
• Historical experience shows that the market has effectively absorbed such supply shocks
• Fed's dovish signals may provide liquidity support

Final Assessment

While the remaining Bitcoin in Mentougou theoretically creates selling pressure, the actual impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited, given the increasing maturity of the market, the phased distribution mechanism, creditor holding preferences, and the current accumulation of technical signals. Bitcoin is expected to absorb this last remaining historical supply pressure within the $105,000-112,000 range.