Bitcoin Rally Analysis: Can $110,000 Support Continue the Bull Run?
Summary of key points
Bitcoin is currently testing the upper edge of a key support area near $110,400. Technicals suggest a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart, but caution on the daily chart. Strong on-chain data supports a rebound : continued net outflows, whale accumulation, and exchange reserves hitting a six-year low. Social sentiment is optimistic, with analysts generally viewing $110,000 as a key bull market support. The rebound has a 70% probability of continuation , targeting the $114,000-$115,000 resistance level, but confirmation is required by a break above $110.5,000.
Core Analysis
Technical structure assessment
The current price is $110,429 (as of 05:13 UTC on October 20, 2025). It is testing the upper edge of the $107K-$110K support range and has regained its footing after a brief pullback.
Multi-period signal comparison :
| Timeframe | RSI | MACD Status | Key moving average positions | ADX Strength | Trend Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 hours | 59 (Neutral to Bullish) | Golden Cross Signal (+617) | Breaking through the upper limit of $110,159 | 35 (medium) | Short-term bullish |
| 1st | 44 (Neutral to Bearish) | Death Cross Status (-1,020) | Blocked by EMA12 $111,500 | 34 (weakened) | Cautious wait-and-see |
| 3rd | Consolidation trend | Sideways consolidation | SMA200 support at $107,873 | Stablize | Structural integrity |
Key price analysis :
| type | Price | strength | Technical basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong support | $107,500 | Very strong | Daily SMA200+4H middle track+liquidation cluster $900M |
| Secondary support | $104,900 | medium | 4H lower track + oversold extension |
| Strong resistance | $114,200 | Very strong | Daily SMA50+ short liquidation cluster $260M |
| Secondary resistance | $115,800 | powerful | Daily middle line + $115K area mentioned by users |
Bitcoin formed an ascending triangle pattern near $110K. The breakthrough of the upper track of the 4-hour Bollinger Band showed short-term momentum, but the death cross of the daily MACD suggested that we should be cautious about the risk of a deeper correction.
Derivatives and Capital Flows
Futures Market Performance : Open interest stands at $70.96B (+3.26% in the past 24 hours), with increased leverage supporting the upward trend. Funding rates are generally positive (0.0055% on Binance, 0.0083% on Bybit), with longs paying shorts – a bullish sign, but caution against excessive leverage.
Options data : Total open interest $60.91B, maximum pain level $108,000 (October 20 expiration) - current price above this level relieves expiration pressure.
Liquidation Risk Map : 24-hour liquidations totaled $153.6M, with short liquidations dominating ($115.9M vs. long $37.7M), confirming that bullish pressure comes from short squeezes.
On-chain fundamental analysis
Exchange flows : Net outflows of approximately 45,000 BTC (~$4.8 billion) have occurred over the past 14 days, with an average daily outflow of 3,200-5,400 BTC. Exchange reserves have fallen to 2.4-2.8M BTC (a 6-7 year low), a significant decrease from 3.5M in 2020. This supply squeeze provides fundamental support for price rebounds.
Whale Behavior : Addresses holding >1K BTC accumulated a net 26,500 BTC during the decline, and long-term holders (>155 days) saw a tenfold surge in inflows to Binance. Short-term holders panic-sold (averaging $750M in daily losses), providing whales with opportunities to enter positions at low prices.
Valuation Metrics : The MVRV ratio is ~2.0-2.26, below the historically overvalued range (>3.5). The realized price of $107,144 is close to the current price, indicating a fair valuation. The 30-day MVRV is -7.56%, placing it in buy range.
Social Sentiment and Market Narratives
Summary of KOL opinions :
- @mrofwallstreet describes $110K as the "golden line" and bull market base, ready to add to positions on a test of that level
- @CryptoJelleNL highlights $110K forming a higher low, support moving towards $120K
- @PeterSchiff warns of a "brutal" bear market, but is in the minority
The prevailing narrative : A trifecta of positive factors: institutional adoption (MicroStrategy's STRC product), regulatory clarity (Sweden's proposal to exempt small payments), and a weaker dollar supporting hard assets. The community generally views any pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a cyclical reversal.
Rebound Prospects Assessment
Scenario Analysis
| scene | Probability | Price Target | Key conditions | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull market continues | 70% | $114K-$125K | Hold $110K, break $110.5K | 1-4 weeks |
| Range oscillation | 20% | $107K-$115K | $110K gains and losses | 2-6 weeks |
| Depth callback | 10% | $97K-$105K | Falling below $107K support | Immediate Risk |
Key catalysts :
Positive factors :
- Fed rate cut expectations (CME shows 91% probability)
- ETF fund outflow (currently in technical outflow)
- Seasonal factors (November historical average +42%)
- Technical oversold rebound
Risk factors :
- US-China trade tensions escalate
- Continued large ETF outflows ($536M on October 17)
- Macro market risk transmission
Trading strategy recommendations
Multi-head setup (recommended):
- Entry: $110,400-$110,500
- Target: $114,200 (Risk-Reward Ratio 1.27)
- Stop Loss: $107,500
- Success rate: 70%
Key monitoring points :
- The 4-hour closing price holds steady at $110,500, confirming a bullish trend.
- Is the funding rate higher than 0.01% (excessive leverage warning)?
- Whether the net flow direction turns to inflow (reversal signal)
- Is there a divergence in the daily MACD?
in conclusion
Bitcoin is showing strong technical and fundamental support at $110,000, with a 70% probability of a rebound continuation , mainly based on: continued net outflows from exchanges, whale accumulation behavior, exchange reserves at a 6-year low, and a bullish breakout signal on the 4-hour technical level.
Near-term target : First, test the $114K resistance level. A breakout could lead to a move towards the $120K-$125K range. Risk management : If the price falls below the key support level of $107.5K, be wary of a potential pullback towards the $97K-$105K range.
The current structure still supports the bull market continuation narrative. It is recommended to buy on dips around $110K, targeting the $115K-$120K resistance area, and strictly implement the $107.5K stop-loss strategy.