<div><style>
    .source {
      font-size: 0;
    }
    .source a {
      display: inline-block;
      vertical-align: bottom;
    }
    .source img {
      pointer-events: none;
      border-radius: 50%;
      vertical-align: bottom;
      padding: 2px;
      display: inline;
      margin: 0;
    }
  </style>
<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>Bitcoin once returned to $110,000, ETF funds outflowed significantly, market volatility intensified, whales increased their short positions, and market sentiment diverged.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>In the short term, BTC uses the 106800-107500 range as a long position test, with a stop loss of 107300 and a take profit of 109000. An aggressive style can use high leverage for quick entry and exit. If it falls below 107300, stop loss and exit the market. The rebound is the escape window. At present, there is a large divergence between long and short positions, and whale are hedging long and short with high leverage, which is suitable for short-term swing trading<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20919025"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/d28dc8a9494c4f0cb9720cade3fc0839.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20918363"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20917124"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.If it falls back to the range of 101000-98971, you can try to buy with a light position, and set the stop loss at 97800. It is suitable for a stable style to be arranged in batches to avoid chasing high levels. The position is recommended to be within 2%, and it is recommended to move the stop loss to the principal protection level at night<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20915902"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/41cfb5513bc8296ac7f40f9c333da1ff.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20915308"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/41cfb5513bc8296ac7f40f9c333da1ff.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20919025"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/d28dc8a9494c4f0cb9720cade3fc0839.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.The current structure is volatile, and the bear market signal is not sufficient. MEME and altcoins may rebound by the end of the year. BTC has limited upward space, and the low point for the year is expected to be around 100,000, which is suitable for swing low buying<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20920426"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/8a374ed90fffa00efff221f11ab27889.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20911341"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/ee75b388163599abea6747bba4bcd3bc.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-21 04:03</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Bitcoin Rally Analysis: Can $110,000 Support Continue the Bull Run?</h1><h2> Summary of key points</h2><p> Bitcoin is currently testing the upper edge of a key support area near $110,400. Technicals suggest a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart, but caution on the daily chart. <strong>Strong on-chain data supports a rebound</strong> : continued net outflows, whale accumulation, and exchange reserves hitting a six-year low. Social sentiment is optimistic, with analysts generally viewing $110,000 as a key bull market support. <strong>The rebound has a 70% probability of continuation</strong> , targeting the $114,000-$115,000 resistance level, but confirmation is required by a break above $110.5,000.</p><h2> Core Analysis</h2><h3> Technical structure assessment</h3><p> <strong>The current price is</strong> $110,429 (as of 05:13 UTC on October 20, 2025). It is testing the upper edge of the $107K-$110K support range and has regained its footing after a brief pullback.</p><p> <strong>Multi-period signal comparison</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> Timeframe</th><th> RSI</th><th> MACD Status</th><th> Key moving average positions</th><th> ADX Strength</th><th> Trend Assessment</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> 4 hours</td><td> 59 (Neutral to Bullish)</td><td> Golden Cross Signal (+617)</td><td> Breaking through the upper limit of $110,159</td><td> 35 (medium)</td><td> Short-term bullish</td></tr><tr><td> 1st</td><td> 44 (Neutral to Bearish)</td><td> Death Cross Status (-1,020)</td><td> Blocked by EMA12 $111,500</td><td> 34 (weakened)</td><td> Cautious wait-and-see</td></tr><tr><td> 3rd</td><td> Consolidation trend</td><td> Sideways consolidation</td><td> SMA200 support at $107,873</td><td> Stablize</td><td> Structural integrity</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Key price analysis</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> type</th><th> Price</th><th> strength</th><th> Technical basis</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Strong support</td><td> <strong>$107,500</strong></td><td> Very strong</td><td> Daily SMA200+4H middle track+liquidation cluster $900M</td></tr><tr><td> Secondary support</td><td> $104,900</td><td> medium</td><td> 4H lower track + oversold extension</td></tr><tr><td> Strong resistance</td><td> <strong>$114,200</strong></td><td> Very strong</td><td> Daily SMA50+ short liquidation cluster $260M</td></tr><tr><td> Secondary resistance</td><td> $115,800</td><td> powerful</td><td> Daily middle line + $115K area mentioned by users</td></tr></tbody></table><p> Bitcoin formed an ascending triangle pattern near $110K. The breakthrough of the upper track of the 4-hour Bollinger Band showed short-term momentum, but the death cross of the daily MACD suggested that we should be cautious about the risk of a deeper correction.</p><h3> Derivatives and Capital Flows</h3><p> <strong>Futures Market Performance</strong> : Open interest stands at $70.96B (+3.26% in the past 24 hours), with increased leverage supporting the upward trend. Funding rates are generally positive (0.0055% on Binance, 0.0083% on Bybit), with longs paying shorts – a bullish sign, but caution against excessive leverage. <reference tool_id="call_11534727" category="heatmap" project="BTC" description="BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-20 05:13 UTC"/></p><p> <strong>Options data</strong> : Total open interest $60.91B, maximum pain level $108,000 (October 20 expiration) - current price above this level relieves expiration pressure. <reference tool_id="call_34738537" category="mix_bar_line_options" project="BTC" description="BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date"/></p><p> <strong>Liquidation Risk Map</strong> : 24-hour liquidations totaled $153.6M, with short liquidations dominating ($115.9M vs. long $37.7M), confirming that bullish pressure comes from short squeezes. <reference tool_id="call_86614966" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="BTC" description="BTC liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-20 05:13 UTC"/></p><h3> On-chain fundamental analysis</h3><p> <strong>Exchange flows</strong> : Net outflows of approximately 45,000 BTC (~$4.8 billion) have occurred over the past 14 days, with an average daily outflow of 3,200-5,400 BTC. Exchange reserves have fallen to 2.4-2.8M BTC (a 6-7 year low), a significant decrease from 3.5M in 2020. This supply squeeze provides fundamental support for price rebounds.</p><p> <strong>Whale Behavior</strong> : Addresses holding &gt;1K BTC accumulated a net 26,500 BTC during the decline, and long-term holders (&gt;155 days) saw a tenfold surge in inflows to Binance. Short-term holders panic-sold (averaging $750M in daily losses), providing whales with opportunities to enter positions at low prices.</p><p> <strong>Valuation Metrics</strong> : The MVRV ratio is ~2.0-2.26, below the historically overvalued range (&gt;3.5). The realized price of $107,144 is close to the current price, indicating a fair valuation. The 30-day MVRV is -7.56%, placing it in buy range.</p><h3> Social Sentiment and Market Narratives</h3><p> <strong>Summary of KOL opinions</strong> :</p><ul><li> @mrofwallstreet describes $110K as the &quot;golden line&quot; and bull market base, ready to add to positions on a test of that level</li><li> @CryptoJelleNL highlights $110K forming a higher low, support moving towards $120K</li><li> @PeterSchiff warns of a &quot;brutal&quot; bear market, but is in the minority</li></ul><p> <strong>The prevailing narrative</strong> : A trifecta of positive factors: institutional adoption (MicroStrategy&#39;s STRC product), regulatory clarity (Sweden&#39;s proposal to exempt small payments), and a weaker dollar supporting hard assets. The community generally views any pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a cyclical reversal.</p><h2> Rebound Prospects Assessment</h2><h3> Scenario Analysis</h3><table><thead><tr><th> scene</th><th> Probability</th><th> Price Target</th><th> Key conditions</th><th> Timeframe</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>Bull market continues</strong></td><td> 70%</td><td> $114K-$125K</td><td> Hold $110K, break $110.5K</td><td> 1-4 weeks</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Range oscillation</strong></td><td> 20%</td><td> $107K-$115K</td><td> $110K gains and losses</td><td> 2-6 weeks</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Depth callback</strong></td><td> 10%</td><td> $97K-$105K</td><td> Falling below $107K support</td><td> Immediate Risk</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Key catalysts</strong> :</p><p> <strong>Positive factors</strong> :</p><ul><li> Fed rate cut expectations (CME shows 91% probability)</li><li> ETF fund outflow (currently in technical outflow)</li><li> Seasonal factors (November historical average +42%)</li><li> Technical oversold rebound</li></ul><p> <strong>Risk factors</strong> :</p><ul><li> US-China trade tensions escalate</li><li> Continued large ETF outflows ($536M on October 17)</li><li> Macro market risk transmission</li></ul><h3> Trading strategy recommendations</h3><p> <strong>Multi-head setup</strong> (recommended):</p><ul><li> Entry: $110,400-$110,500</li><li> Target: $114,200 (Risk-Reward Ratio 1.27)</li><li> Stop Loss: $107,500</li><li> Success rate: 70%</li></ul><p> <strong>Key monitoring points</strong> :</p><ul><li class="task-list-item"><input class="task-list-item-checkbox" type="checkbox" disabled/>The 4-hour closing price holds steady at $110,500, confirming a bullish trend.</li><li class="task-list-item"><input class="task-list-item-checkbox" type="checkbox" disabled/> Is the funding rate higher than 0.01% (excessive leverage warning)?</li><li class="task-list-item"><input class="task-list-item-checkbox" type="checkbox" disabled/> Whether the net flow direction turns to inflow (reversal signal)</li><li class="task-list-item"><input class="task-list-item-checkbox" type="checkbox" disabled/> Is there a divergence in the daily MACD?</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> Bitcoin is showing strong technical and fundamental support at $110,000, <strong>with a 70% probability of a rebound continuation</strong> , mainly based on: continued net outflows from exchanges, whale accumulation behavior, exchange reserves at a 6-year low, and a bullish breakout signal on the 4-hour technical level.</p><p> <strong>Near-term target</strong> : First, test the $114K resistance level. A breakout could lead to a move towards the $120K-$125K range. <strong>Risk management</strong> : If the price falls below the key support level of $107.5K, be wary of a potential pullback towards the $97K-$105K range.</p><p> The current structure still supports the bull market continuation narrative. It is recommended to buy on dips around $110K, targeting the $115K-$120K resistance area, and strictly implement the $107.5K stop-loss strategy.</p>
