Privacy Coin Concept Analysis: Can ZEC and DASH Continue Their Rise?

Core Viewpoint

The probability of ZEC breaking through the historical high : 60%, target $300 The probability of DASH continuing to rise : 70%, target $53-70 The overall concept of privacy : short-term bullish, medium-term regulatory risks need to be cautious

Current performance data

Price performance comparison

ZEC surged from around $50 in September to $268, hitting a four-year high and approaching its all-time high of $297. DASH also performed strongly, rising from $23 to $48, successfully breaking through its 968-day downward trend line.

Technical Analysis Outlook

ZEC Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe signals :

• 4-hour chart: RSI 65.3 (neutral to bullish), MACD positive, price around the upper Bollinger Band of $273
• Daily : RSI 69.7 (close to overbought), price well above all moving averages, ADX 52.2 indicates a strong trend.
• Weekly : RSI 85.6 (severely overbought), MACD strongly bullish, but there is a risk of a pullback

Key points :

• Support : $262 (strong support, liquidation cluster $0.26M), $257 (minor support)
• Resistance : $273 (upper Bollinger band for 4 hours), $280-300 (target range)

DASH Technical Analysis

Technical indicators are more balanced :

• RSI daily line 65.5 (healthy bullish range), weekly line 68.2 (slightly overbought)
• MACD positive on all time frames, no divergence signals
• The price breaks through all key moving averages, and the trend is established.

Trade setup : 70% probability of upside, target $53, stop loss $45

Fundamental drivers

Institutional capital inflows

Strong institutional demand for ZEC :

• Grayscale ZEC Trust saw an additional $46 million in inflows in October
• Futures open interest is $170 million, up 25% week-over-week.
• Privacy addresses hold 4.4 million ZEC (26% of total supply)

DASH Whale Activity :

• The top 100 addresses hold 36% of the supply (up from 25% at the beginning of the year)
• Masternodes lock up 7 million DASH (37% of the circulating supply)
• Network activity continues to grow, with governance transactions increasing by 10-15%.

Privacy narrative resurrected

The privacy coin sector is expected to rise by 71.6% by 2025, surpassing Bitcoin (+45%) and Ethereum (+32%). Key drivers include:

• Regulatory hedging needs : KOLs such as Naval Ravikant position ZEC as "regulatory insurance"
• Technology Upgrade : ZK-SNARKs and Quantum Resistance Improvement
• Payment practicality : DASH’s instant send and private send features gain recognition

phemex finance.yahoo.com

Community sentiment analysis

Market narrative strength

Community discussions centered around the "privacy track," emphasizing the importance of digital financial sovereignty. ZEC gained recognition thanks to its zk-SNARKs technology, while DASH garnered attention for its hybrid privacy model.

KOL Opinion

Analysts are generally bullish on ZEC's technical setup, believing it could reach new highs after consolidation. DASH's breakout from a multi-year downtrend is seen as a sector rotation signal. Overall sentiment is more cautious but resolute than the broader market.

Risk factor assessment

Technical risks

• ZEC is at risk of overbought : Weekly RSI at 85.6, suggesting a 20% pullback.
• Leverage risk : ZEC holdings are $170 million, and fluctuations in funding rates could trigger liquidations

Regulatory threats

• EU AML regulations take effect in 2027 and may ban anonymous tokens
• Multiple exchanges have delisted XMR, putting privacy coins under pressure to comply with regulations.
• US policy shift may ease, but uncertainty remains

Market structure risks

• Active address growth is limited, mainly driven by speculation
• Whale holdings are highly concentrated, posing a risk of sell-offs
• The nature of sector rotation is questionable in terms of sustainability

Price Targets and Probabilities

ZEC Outlook

• Bullish target : $300-320 (analyst consensus)
• Probability assessment : 60% (based on technical analysis and capital flow)
• Risk scenario : pullback to $200-230 range

DASH Outlook

• Bullish target : $70-100 (expected by the end of the year)
• Probability assessment : 70% (more balanced technically)
• Support level : $44-45 key support

in conclusion

Short-term (1-2 weeks) : Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies still have room to rise, with ZEC targeting $300 and DASH targeting $53-70. Institutional capital inflows and technical breakthroughs are supporting the upward trend.

Medium-term (1-3 months) : Focus on regulatory risks and overbought technical indicators. ZEC's extreme overbought state increases the probability of a pullback, while DASH is relatively more stable.

Investment advice :

• Aggressive investors can participate in ZEC's momentum trade as it breaks through $273
• Conservative investors can focus on DASH's relative value opportunities
• Strictly set stop-loss, privacy concept has high volatility characteristics

The "second spring" of privacy coins has arrived, but it needs to find a balance between narrative hype and fundamental realities. ccn.com ainvest.com