<div><style>
    .source {
      font-size: 0;
    }
    .source a {
      display: inline-block;
      vertical-align: bottom;
    }
    .source img {
      pointer-events: none;
      border-radius: 50%;
      vertical-align: bottom;
      padding: 2px;
      display: inline;
      margin: 0;
    }
  </style>
<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>Bitcoin fell below 109,000 USDT, and spot ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive days, leading to a cooling market sentiment and pressure on the liquidity of the liquidity pool. Ethereum also weakened, with institutional attention shifting to liquid staking derivatives.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>BTC daily line fell below the neckline and the trading volume shrank. The weekly M-top structure was not broken, and the rhythm was bearish. If it rebounded to 111600 without increasing volume, continue to test the short position with a stop loss at 112500. In the short term, you can be aggressive in the light position at 107900 and set a stop loss at 105800. Spot orders are placed in batches at 103666-101850, which is suitable for quick entry and exit or batch low-buying. The new high of US stocks is only temporarily driven, and the rebound is an escape window<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20946957"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/961b3faca4f77df32a2e3046b0411f9b.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20945072"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/cbdc573627d3dbc7551fa2cd72e53907.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20944158"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.ETH whale' high-leverage long orders are concentrated in the 4100-4120 range. If 4100 is held, you can long with the trend and set the stop loss below 4090. Short-term aggressive style is preferred, and range fluctuations are used to capture quick entry and exit opportunities. If it falls below 4100, wait and see<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20944160"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20941688"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=20940667"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/aaa17a48c14c826ec85fbc87e863a74b.png" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-21 06:14</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Crypto Market In-Depth Analysis: Prospects for a Rebound in a Pullback</h1><h2> Core Viewpoint</h2><p> <strong>Current market status</strong> : Bitcoin $108,275, Ethereum $3,879 (as of 2025-10-21 04:19 UTC), are in a consolidation phase after the sharp pullback in October. Technical indicators show oversold signals, and on-chain data shows signs of accumulation, but a large-scale rebound still needs to be confirmed at key support levels. <a href="https://followin.io/zh-Hans/trendingTopic/2125">Followin</a></p><h2> Market pullback analysis</h2><h3> Callback Amplitude and Timeline</h3><p> The crypto market experienced a significant correction in October, with Bitcoin falling from a high of $124,773 on October 6 to a low of $105,896 on October 10, a drop of approximately 15%. Ethereum also fell from $4,689 to $3,575 during <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/zh/markets/2025/10/20/crypto-markets-today-btc-reclaims-usd111k-eth-tops-usd4k-after-last-week-s-sell-off">the</a> same period, a drop of 24%.</p><table><thead><tr><th> assets</th><th> High price</th><th> Low price</th><th> Current Price</th><th> decline from high</th><th> Rebound from lows</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> BTC</td><td> $124,773</td><td> $105,896</td><td> $108,275</td><td> -13.2%</td><td> +2.2%</td></tr><tr><td> ETH</td><td> $4,689</td><td> $3,575</td><td> $3,879</td><td> -17.3%</td><td> +8.5%</td></tr></tbody></table><h3> Current Status of Technical Analysis</h3><p> <strong>Bitcoin technical analysis</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>RSI</strong> : 31.5 (oversold) on the 1-hour chart, 43.5 on the 4-hour chart, and 40.5 on the daily chart.</li><li> <strong>Key Support</strong> : $107,748 (strong support), $106,788 (medium support), $102,758 (weak support)</li><li> <strong>Resistance</strong> : $109,364 (medium), $114,192 (strong resistance) </li></ul><p><reference tool_id="call_31044814" category="heatmap" project="BTC" description="BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-21 04:19 UTC"/></p><p> <strong>Ethereum technical aspects</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>RSI</strong> : 29.1 (deeply oversold) on the 1-hour chart, 40.3 on the 4-hour chart, 41.6 on the daily chart</li><li> <strong>Key Support</strong> : $3,834 (strong support), $3,734 (medium support), $3,593 (weak support)</li><li> <strong>Resistance</strong> : $3,975 (medium resistance), $4,276 (strong resistance) </li></ul><p><reference tool_id="call_26993631" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="ETH" description="ETH liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-21 04:19 UTC"/></p><h2> On-chain data accumulation signal</h2><h3> Exchange fund flows</h3><p> <strong>Bitcoin net outflow</strong> (October 1-21):</p><ul><li> Binance: -22,427 BTC (approximately $2.4 billion)</li><li> Coinbase: -35,959 BTC (approximately $3.9 billion)</li><li> Total net outflow: approximately 59,072 BTC (approximately $6.4 billion)</li></ul><p> <strong>Ethereum net outflow</strong> (same period):</p><ul><li> Binance: -119,976 ETH (approximately $467 million)</li><li> Coinbase: -502,337 ETH (approximately $1.96 billion)</li><li> Total net outflow: approximately 695,832 ETH (approximately $2.7 billion)</li></ul><p> Net outflows indicate that large investors and institutions are accumulating and withdrawing assets from exchanges for self-custody, which is generally a bullish sign.</p><h3> DeFi Ecosystem Health </h3><p><reference tool_id="call_62741528" item_id="eead9e0f-241a-4bcc-8b04-32a76a7f6532" category="bar_tvl" project="Aave" description="Aave protocol TVL from 2025-10-01 to 2025-10-21"/></p><p> <strong>Major protocol TVL changes</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Aave</strong> : $43.3 billion → $39.9 billion (-8%)</li><li> <strong>Uniswap</strong> : $5.6 billion → $5.9 billion (+5.7%)</li><li> <strong>Lido</strong> : $35.4 billion → $34.3 billion (-3.2%)</li></ul><p> &lt;reference tool_id=&quot;call_36985313&quot; item_id=8707f7ef-b9fc-4243-9cdb-b011e6220df8&quot; category=&quot;line_tvl&quot; project=&quot;Ethereum&quot; description=&quot;Ethereum chain TVL from 2025-10-01 to 2025-10-21&quot;/&gt;</p><p> Overall DeFi TVL fell from approximately $120 billion to $115 billion, a decrease of approximately 4.2%, but the core protocol remained stable. </p><p><reference tool_id="call_61221227" item_id="bb723e80-c61c-459b-9c51-86b214d72d84" category="bar_volume" project="Uniswap" description="Uniswap protocol DEX volume from 2025-10-21 to 2025-10-21"/></p><h2> Market sentiment and expert opinions</h2><h3> Social media sentiment</h3><p> The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the mainstream view that this is a healthy mid-term adjustment rather <a href="https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1978469035269661157">than</a> a trend reversal. The community generally views this decline as a necessary process to clean out weak hands and prepare for subsequent gains.</p><h3> Experts predict divergence</h3><p> <strong>Bullish view</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Michael Saylor</strong> : Expected to reach a new high by the end of 2025</li><li> <strong>JPMorgan</strong> : Target price $165,000</li><li> <strong>TD Cowen</strong> : December target $141,000</li><li> <strong>Arca analyst</strong> : The rebound is not a &quot;dead cat bounce&quot;, key indicators show signs of recovery <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/zh/markets/2025/10/20/bitcoin-bounce-stalls-as-xrp-zcash-lead-gains-arca-says-rally-not-a-dead-cat-bounce">coindesk</a></li></ul><p> <strong>Bearish view</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Elliott Wave analyst Jon Glover</strong> : The bull market is over and the market is expected to fall to $70,000-$80,000</li><li> <strong>Peter Schiff</strong> : Bitcoin is weak against gold and is expected to fall to lower levels <a href="https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1978855411840135332">x.com</a></li></ul><h2> Derivatives Market Signals</h2><h3> Options and Futures Data </h3><p><reference tool_id="call_13510269" category="mix_bar_line_options" project="BTC" description="BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date"/></p><p> <strong>Open Interest</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Bitcoin OI</strong> : $70.2 billion (down 0.91% in 24 hours)</li><li> <strong>Ethereum OI</strong> : $43 billion (down 3.94% in 24 hours)</li></ul><p> <strong>Funding Rate</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Bitcoin</strong> : Binance -0.005% (shorts pay longs), Bybit +0.0019%</li><li> <strong>Ethereum</strong> : Generally positive, Binance +0.0042%, Bybit +0.0055% </li></ul><p><reference tool_id="call_20893151" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="BTC" description="BTC liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-21 04:19 UTC"/></p><h2> Rebound Prospects Assessment</h2><h3> Possibility of a short-term rebound (next 1-2 weeks)</h3><p> <strong>Probability: 60%</strong></p><p> <strong>Supporting factors</strong> :</p><ul><li> RSI is deeply oversold, and there is a strong demand for a technical rebound.</li><li> Net outflows from exchanges show accumulation behavior</li><li> 4-hour MACD shows a bullish crossover</li><li> The Fear and Greed Index is at 30, approaching extreme fear territory.</li></ul><p> <strong>Key conditions</strong> :</p><ul><li> Bitcoin needs to hold the $107,748 support level</li><li> Ethereum needs to hold the $3,834 support level</li><li> Increased trading volume confirms the authenticity of the rebound</li></ul><h3> Medium-term Outlook (Q4 2025)</h3><p> <strong>Expectations of a massive rebound</strong> : Based on historical &quot;Uptober&quot; patterns and the recovery of institutional ETF inflows, we expect Q4 to see weekly gains of 20%+. Key <a href="https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/100000-or-120000-bitcoins-next-big-break-could-shock-crypto-investors/articleshow/124672816.cms">catalysts</a> include the Fed&#39;s policy shift and easing of US-China trade relations.</p><p> <strong>Target price</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Bitcoin</strong> : $115,000-$120,000 (ETF inflows resume)</li><li> <strong>Ethereum</strong> : $4,500 (breakout of channel resistance)</li></ul><h2> Risk Warning</h2><h3> Downside risks</h3><p> <strong>Bitcoin</strong> : A break below $105,000 could trigger a waterfall drop to the psychological level of $100,000 <strong>Ethereum</strong> : A loss of $3,734 could test the $3,500 area</p><h3> Macro factors</h3><ul><li> US-China trade tensions</li><li> Hawkish Fed policy</li><li> Global liquidity tightening</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> The crypto market is currently at a critical inflection point. Technical oversold signals and accumulating on-chain data corroborate the probability of a short-term rebound. However, a large-scale rebound still requires confirmation of key support levels and an improvement in the macroeconomic environment. Investors should closely monitor price performance in the $108,000/$3,900 area, as this will determine the subsequent trend.</p><p> Based on multi-dimensional analysis, <strong>it is estimated that it will take another 1-2 weeks to complete the bottom confirmation</strong> , after which a stronger rebound is expected to begin.</p>
