In-depth analysis of the DYDX buyback plan: assessing the potential for market restart and track change
Key Points
Buyback scale confirmed : dYdX has purchased a total of 5.41 million DYDX tokens through its buyback program, with a total value of approximately $1.81 million . All tokens are staked to enhance network security. The program will be launched in April 2025, using 25% of protocol fee revenue for monthly buybacks.
Current Market Condition : DYDX is currently trading at $0.3304 , down approximately 63% from its September high, but technical indicators suggest severe oversold conditions (RSI at just 29.3), setting the stage for a potential rebound.
Detailed analysis of the repurchase plan
Repurchase mechanism and implementation
The dYdX buyback program was approved by community governance (93.56% approval), adopting a revenue-driven model:
| index | data | illustrate |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative repurchase volume | 5.41 million DYDX | 13% of circulating supply |
| Repurchase amount | $1.81 million | The average cost is about $0.33-$0.63 |
| Funding | Agreement fee income 25% | Self-funded, no external financing |
| Token Processing | 100% staking | Enhanced network security, non-destructive mode |
Implementation status in October
According to on-chain data analysis, buyback activity in October was relatively mild:
- October 13 : 34,730 DYDX (~$11,500)
- October 20 : 6,350 DYDX (~$2,100)
- Monthly total : approximately 41,000 DYDX
At the same time, it was found that a whale address alone accumulated 2.38 million DYDX, indicating large-scale purchases independent of official repurchases.
Technical analysis: Rebound signals emerge
Key Price Levels
| type | price | strength | in accordance with |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support level | $0.32 | powerful | Long liquidation cluster $1.75 million |
| resistance level | $0.34 | powerful | Short liquidation cluster $1.96 million |
| Target position | $0.37 | middle | Daily EMA(12) level |
Multi-time frame signals
- Daily chart : RSI 29.3 (severely oversold) + MACD negative convergence, bottom signal strengthened
- 4 hours : CMF (20) turned positive (0.026), suggesting low-level accumulation
- Exchange reserves : decreased by 26% from September to 67,099 DYDX, reducing selling pressure
Derivatives data : Open interest rose 1.53% to $31.6 million, and funding rates were neutral, providing room for further increases.
Community sentiment and market expectations
Summary of KOL opinions
Positive faction :
- DefiIgnas : believes 25% fee allocation provides "downside protection" based on a strong foundation of $46 million in annual revenue x.com
- Community user Creed praised the transparency and community support of the implementation, calling it a "bold move" x.com
Cautious
- Thor : Although he recognizes the potential for $4.3 million in annual buybacks, he is concerned about the pressure to unlock $46 million and the impact of daily trading volume of less than $100 million .
Overall community consensus
The repurchase plan has been widely recognized, and the community focuses on long-term value accumulation rather than short-term price speculation, reflecting mature value investment thinking.
Prediction market track acceleration analysis
Explosive growth of the track
The forecast market in 2025 will experience explosive growth:
- Weekly trading volume : exceeds $2 billion
- Total locked value : $237 million, Polymarket accounts for 62%
- Institutional participation : ICE invests $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing it at $9 billion
dYdX Strategic Positioning
dYdX is integrating prediction market functionality through:
- Event perpetual contracts : For example, TRUMPWIN perpetual contracts, which settle to $1 when winning.
- Low latency advantage : High-performance chain based on Cosmos SDK
- Revenue synergy : Buyback program and forecast market revenue form a positive cycle
Market restart and track change assessment
Restart probability: 70%
Supporting factors :
- The technical side is severely oversold and the bottom signal is clear
- Buybacks reduce circulating supply by 13%, creating scarcity
- Exchange reserves fell 26%, reducing selling pressure
- Prediction market track boost
Risk factors :
- Macro market uncertainty
- Team unlocks pressure $46 million
- Relatively low daily trading volume
Track change acceleration: 60%
Driving force for change :
- Income Model Innovation : 25% Fee Buyback Becomes the New DeFi Standard
- Functional integration : perpetual + prediction market hybrid model
- Institutional recognition : NHL, ICE and other traditional institutions’ admission verification
Timeframe : Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 is expected to be a key node, and the launch of Solana spot trading and the improvement of prediction market functions will be catalysts.
Investment Advice
Short-term (1-3 months) :
- Watch for a breakout above $0.34 to confirm a rebound
- Monitor Q4 buyback execution progress
- Prediction market launch time
Medium to long term (6-12 months) :
- The supply reduction effect is gradually emerging
- The maturity of the prediction market brings new growth
- Institutional adoption is expected to lead to valuation reshaping
Core Logic : The dYdX buyback program is not only a token economics optimization, but also an innovative practice in the DeFi income distribution model. Combined with the outbreak of the prediction market track, it has the strong potential to restart the market and accelerate the change of the track.