The cooling of the trade war has driven Bitcoin's strong rebound to above $110,000

Key Points

Driven by expectations of easing trade tensions, Bitcoin has rapidly rebounded from its mid-October low of $107,000 to above $110,000, and is currently consolidating around $109,846. The market directly attributes this rally to Trump's softening stance on China's trade policy and expectations of an upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders.

Trade development timeline

Phase of escalating tensions (October 10-16)

• October 10 : Trump threatens to impose 100% tariffs and export controls on China, claiming "we are already in a trade war," leading to the liquidation of approximately $19 billion in Bitcoin futures positions.
• October 15 : Trump officially "confirms" the trade war, reiterating his threat of 100% tariffs, and Bitcoin falls to $107,000.

Mitigation transition phase (October 17 to present)

• October 17 : Trump called 100% tariffs "unsustainable" in a Fox interview and said, "I think we're going to get along very well with China." The market interpreted this as a easing signal, and Bitcoin rose 2% that day. finance.yahoo
• October 19 : Economists expect "calmer heads will prevail" and believe a compromise will be reached in the negotiations .
• October 21-22 : Bitcoin regained $110,000 and fluctuated between $111,000 and $113,000.

Technical Analysis

Price Action and Key Levels

Current technical status :

• Short-term (1 hour) : RSI is at 61.6, showing healthy upward momentum, and the price is near the upper Bollinger Band.
• Medium-term (4-hour) : RSI is neutral at 52.9, and the MACD histogram is shrinking but still positive, indicating that the upward trend has slowed but not weakened.
• Long-term (daily) : RSI is at 44.4, indicating a bearish trend. MACD is deeply negative, indicating that it will take more time to digest the gains.

Derivatives Market Signals

• Futures open interest : $69.3 billion (+0.01% in 24 hours), with a positive funding rate indicating bullish sentiment.
• Options data : Total holdings are $64.8 billion, with the biggest pain points concentrated in the $109,000-114,000 range, corresponding to recently expiring contracts.
• Liquidation risk : The total liquidation in 24 hours was US$117 million, with long liquidations accounting for 76%, indicating passive selling pressure during the pullback.

On-chain data analysis

Exchange Fund Flows (October 16-23)

Key findings :

• Net outflow pattern : The four major exchanges saw a net outflow of 76 BTC, indicating that holders tend to withdraw their coins to cold wallets.
• Regional differences : US centralized exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) saw net outflows, while Asian exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex) saw net inflows, reflecting the need to hedge against geopolitical risks.
• Institutional stability : MicroStrategy's holdings remained unchanged at 468,452.57 BTC, with no selling during the rally.

Social sentiment analysis

Mainstream narrative themes

Bitcoin as a Geopolitical Hedge :

• Well-known KOLs such as Tim Draper and Michael Saylor see the trade war as a catalyst for the devaluation of fiat currencies, emphasizing the advantages of Bitcoin as a "neutral reserve asset."
• Citing historical precedent, institutional analysts believe that trade conflicts will accelerate the printing of money by central banks, which will benefit hard assets such as Bitcoin.
• Macro analysts such as Preston Pysh anticipate a "Plaza Accord 2.0" scenario, with financial wars driving Bitcoin higher.

Mitigating expected market reactions :

• The easing of Sino-US tensions was interpreted as positive for risk assets, with Bitcoin being the first to react due to its 24/7 trading characteristics.
• Community discussion is focused on the upcoming Seoul summit (October 31st), with the suggestion that a symbolic tariff pause could propel Bitcoin past $120,000.

Market Outlook

Upcoming Catalysts

• October 31st US-China summit : If positive results are achieved, analysts predict Bitcoin could hit the CME gap of $114,000-116,000
• Technical Breakout Conditions : A close above $110,000 would confirm continued gains, targeting the $112,000-$120,000 range.
• Risk factors : A failed meeting or new export control measures could retest the $104,000-107,000 support area.

Trading strategy recommendations

• Bullish breakout : Long in the $109,800-$110,000 range, target $112,000, stop loss $108,500
• Risk Management : It is recommended to use leverage below 5x, considering the distribution of liquidation clusters and increased volatility.

in conclusion

Bitcoin's rapid rebound from $107,000 to above $110,000 directly reflects market expectations of easing Sino-US trade tensions. Technically, short-term momentum is healthy, but a break above $110,000 is needed to confirm the trend's continuation. On-chain data indicates net outflows and steady institutional holdings supporting the rally. Social sentiment is positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. A key focus is the Seoul summit on October 31st, as positive developments could catalyze the next leg of the rally towards the $120,000 region.