Analysis of HYPE Robinhood's launch and $1 billion fundraising
TL;DR
HYPE successfully listed on Robinhood on October 23, 2025. On the same day, Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. filed its S-1 with the SEC, planning to raise $1 billion (not $100 million). These two positive developments pushed the price above $40, a 10% increase. Technical analysis suggests strong short-term bullish momentum, and the protocol's fundamentals are excellent (with $4.7 billion TVL and market leadership in the perpetual DEX market). However, there are concerns about the team token unlocking in November.
Core Analysis
Impact of Robinhood's launch
Listing details : Robinhood officially launched HYPE spot trading on October 23, 2025, opening access to millions of American retail investors. After the announcement of CryptoRank's listing, HYPE's price immediately soared 9-10%, breaking through the $40 mark, the first time since mid-October.
Market reaction : 24-hour trading volume surged 15% to approximately $700 million, showing strong liquidity injection and mainstream adoption signals. Coingape whales reopened long positions, with as many as 70% of whales turning bullish. Cryptorank
US$1 billion fundraising plan
S-1 filing details : Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. filed an S-1 form with the SEC on October 23rd, planning to raise up to $1 billion by issuing 160 million shares of common stock. The company currently holds approximately 12.6 million HYPE tokens (valued at approximately $470 million) and $305 million in cash reserves.
Use of Funds : Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate operations, enhancing the liquidity provision on the Hyperliquid DEX, and selectively accumulating HYPE tokens to strengthen the ecosystem treasury.
Technical Analysis
| Timeframe | trend | RSI | MACD | Key Levels | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | Bullish | 60 | Bearish histogram (-0.07) | $40.65 (Bollinger Band upper limit) | 🟢 Momentum is above EMA and close to the upper Bollinger Band |
| 4 hours | Bullish | 62 | Bullish histogram (+0.44) | $40.65 (Bollinger Band upper limit) | 🟢 Strong histogram expansion, price above moving average |
| Daily Line | neutral | 47 | Bullish histogram (+0.34) | $48.05 (Bollinger Band upper limit) | 🟡 Recovery mode, below EMA26 but histogram turns positive |
Key price :
- Support : $39.00 (medium strength), $38.00 (strong support, important liquidation cluster)
- Resistance : $41.00 (strong resistance, EMA26 daily line confluence), $48.00 (medium resistance, Bollinger Band upper daily line)
Derivatives data : Open interest rose 11.61% to $1.63 billion, and funding rates were slightly higher (0.00125%-0.01%), indicating moderate bullish sentiment but no signs of overheating.
Protocol fundamentals analysis
TVL performance : The current TVL is US$4.71 billion, ranking among the top three perpetual DEXs.
Income indicators :
- 24-hour cost: $4.26 million; revenue: $3.97 million
- Monthly revenue: $114.6 million ($1.24 billion annualized)
- Total costs: $721 million; Total revenue: $675 million
Trading volume advantage : 24-hour trading volume is US$292.7 million, monthly trading volume is US$15.68 billion, and it occupies 70-80% market share in perpetual DEX.
Token Economics
Supply structure :
- Total supply: 1 billion HYPE
- Circulating Supply: 373.1 million HYPE (37.3%)
- Current market capitalization: $10.84 billion
- Fully diluted valuation: Approximately $40 billion
Unlocking risk : Core Contributor Tokens (238 million, 23.8%) will begin to be unlocked in November 2025 (after a 1-year lock-up period), followed by a linear release over the next 24 months, at approximately 10 million tokens per month.
Social sentiment analysis
Key Opinion : Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang sees Hyperliquid's 2025 revenue surge as a key evolution in crypto infrastructure, similar to Solana's early L1 boom. Maelstrom Fund predicts a valuation of $5.2 trillion by 2028, based on stablecoin adoption and fee generation in high-volume markets.
Competitive Advantage : The community ranks Hyperliquid #1 among perpetual DEXs, ahead of GMX (9th) and dYdX (10th), primarily based on superior liquidity depth, on-chain transparency, and censorship resistance.
Market Outlook
Bullish factors
- Institutionalization Accelerates : Robinhood Launches to Bridge CeFi and DeFi, Raising $1 Billion in Funds Demonstrates Institutional Confidence
- Obvious technical advantages : self-built L1 chain, 100,000 orders/second processing capacity, sub-second confirmation
- Robust revenue model : $1.24 billion in annual revenue, 70% of which is used for token buybacks to support value
- Leading market share : Dominates the perpetual DEX space with a deep moat
Risk factors
- Unlocking pressure : Large-scale token unlocking will begin in November, with potential selling pressure of approximately $5 million per month
- High valuation : FDV's $40 billion valuation is a premium compared to similar projects
- Intensified competition : Rivals such as Aster and Lighter are growing rapidly
- Market volatility : Technical indicators suggest a short-term pullback to the $38 support level is possible
Price Target
- Short-term (1-3 months) : $41-48 range, the key is to break through the $41 resistance
- Medium term (3-6 months) : If fundamentals continue to improve, target $60 (previous high)
- Long term (6-12 months) : Depends on the unlocking and digestion situation and the overall market environment
in conclusion
HYPE's Robinhood listing and $1 billion fundraising plan have laid a solid foundation for its long-term growth, and short-term technicals suggest a healthy bullish structure. Despite the pressure of token unlocking, the protocol's strong fundamentals and market leadership support its potential for value growth. Investors should watch for a break above the key resistance level of $41 to confirm continued upward momentum, while remaining vigilant to potential short-term volatility from the November unlocking event.