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<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>FTT is the platform currency of FTX exchange. Affected by the expectation of SBF pardon, it encountered resistance after a short-term rise, and its capital flow is still affected by the custody of the law firm.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>Driven by events, pay attention to the pardon news. If it fails to break through $2.1, it will be under short-term pressure. The main risk is that the law firm’s funds have not returned.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-24 10:24</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Analysis of rising expectations for SBF pardon: Interpretation of FTT&#39;s short-term rise followed by pressure</h1><h2> TL;DR</h2><p> The overall probability of a SBF pardon is low (Polymarket only 3%), primarily driven by social media rumors and political speculation. FTT did exhibit a typical &quot;short-term rally followed by pressure&quot; pattern, rebounding from a low of $0.536 on October 11th to a high of $0.832 on October 16th (a 55% increase), before consolidating within the $0.80-0.85 range. Technical analysis shows the RSI entering overbought territory, and social sentiment regarding the pardon is primarily negative and skeptical. On-chain data indicates increased trading activity during the rally, but no significant abnormal behavior by large investors.</p><h2> Core Analysis</h2><h3> SBF amnesty expectations</h3><p> Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for orchestrating a $9 billion fraud scheme. Expectations of a pardon stem primarily from social media speculation rather than official confirmation. On October 14, 2025, conservative activist Laura Loomer claimed that a &quot;highly mobilized and well-funded&quot; Republican lobbying group was attempting to secure a pardon for SBF, but <a href="https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/1899527894701081018">this</a> claim lacked concrete evidence.</p><p> <strong>Political environment analysis</strong> :</p><ul><li> The Trump administration has indeed shown a lenient attitude towards the crypto sector, pardoning the co-founder of BitMEX in March and former Binance CEO CZ(CZ) in October.</li><li> But the SBF case involved systematic fraud, which was fundamentally different from Ulbricht&#39;s liberal-leaning operations.</li><li> The Ministry of Justice&#39;s 2025 pardon list does not include SBF, and there is no relevant lobbying registration record.</li></ul><p> <strong>Probability assessment</strong> : Polymarket&#39;s prediction market shows that the probability of SBF being pardoned is only 3%, much lower than that of CZ who has been pardoned (previously 9%).</p><h3> FTT technical trend analysis</h3><p> The FTT price perfectly presents the technical pattern of &quot;short-term rise followed by pressure&quot;:</p><p> <strong>Price trend review</strong> :</p><ul><li> The low was $0.536 on October 11.</li><li> On October 16, it quickly rose to a high of $0.832 (+55%).</li><li> Currently, it is under pressure in the range of $0.80-0.85.</li></ul><p> <strong>Current status of technical indicators</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>RSI is overbought</strong> : The 1-hour chart RSI reached 68.67, close to the overbought warning line</li><li> <strong>MACD divergence</strong> : Short-term momentum indicator is positive but showing signs of fatigue</li><li> <strong>Bollinger Bands</strong> : The price broke through the upper band and then fell back, indicating a short-term over-growth</li></ul><p> <strong>Key support and resistance levels</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> type</th><th> Price</th><th> strength</th><th> in accordance with</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> support</td><td> $0.783</td><td> powerful</td><td> Bollinger Band Middle Track + SMA50 Confluence Point</td></tr><tr><td> support</td><td> $0.735</td><td> medium</td><td> Bollinger Band Lower Track + EMA26 Support</td></tr><tr><td> resistance</td><td> $0.831</td><td> medium</td><td> Bollinger Band upper pressure zone</td></tr><tr><td> resistance</td><td> $0.851</td><td> powerful</td><td> Daily SMA50+ psychological barrier</td></tr></tbody></table><p> Technical indicators indicate that short-term upward momentum is fading and a pullback to test the $0.783 support level is expected. <reference tool_id="call_56717599" category="heatmap" project="FTT" description="FTT OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-23 17:20 UTC"/></p><h3> Social sentiment analysis</h3><p> Social media discussions on the expected SBF pardon were dominated by negative sentiment:</p><p> <strong>Main narrative themes</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Justice vs. political bargaining</strong> : Most users believe a pardon would be a betrayal of the victims</li><li> <strong>Historical Trauma Alert</strong> : The community recalls the history of FTT being used for price manipulation during the FTX crash</li><li> <strong>Dead Cat Bounce Bounce</strong> : Viewing the Current Price Rally as Unsustainable Speculation</li></ul><p> <strong>Key opinion leaders’ views</strong> :</p><ul><li> Laura Loomer strongly opposed the pardon, calling SBF a &quot;crypto scammer&quot; and the second-largest donor to the Democratic Party.</li><li> Coffeezilla mocks SBF&#39;s pardon hopes with meme</li><li> Several crypto influencers warned of the speculative nature of the FTT backlash and stressed the priority of accountability.</li></ul><p> The overall community attitude has shifted from outright rejection following the FTX crash to hope for a gradual recovery, but remains dominated by a skeptical framework. Users are generally managing expectations, emphasizing self-custody improvements and avoiding repeating past mistakes.</p><h3> On-chain data analysis</h3><p> FTT’s on-chain activity on the Solana network shows unusual patterns associated with price pumps:</p><p> <strong>Changes in trading activity</strong> :</p><ul><li> Peak activity reached on October 17th: 923 transfers (+104% compared to the previous day)</li><li> A secondary peak occurred on October 21st: 592 transfers, possibly involving large-scale transactions</li><li> Overall activity increased by approximately 30% compared to baseline levels</li></ul><p> <strong>Capital flow characteristics</strong> :</p><ul><li> The number of unique senders/receivers increases during the pullback</li><li> No obvious large-value transfers (&gt;1 million FTT) or abnormal selling behavior were found</li><li> Activity patterns tend to favor distribution rather than net accumulation</li></ul><p> <strong>DEX Liquidity</strong> :</p><ul><li> FTT has relatively low liquidity on Solana DEX (~$100K-1M TVL)</li><li> The price increase is mainly driven by centralized exchanges, with DEX trading volume accounting for less than 5%.</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> Expectations of a SBF pardon are primarily based on social media speculation and political speculation, with an extremely low probability (3%). FTT&#39;s brief rally does align with technical analysis, but the subsequent downward pressure suggests a lack of fundamental support. Technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, with a pullback to the key support level of $0.783 expected. Social sentiment is primarily skeptical, and while on-chain data indicates increased activity, there is no unusual activity by large investors. Investors should be wary of speculation based on the expectation of a pardon and monitor key dates such as the SBF appeal hearing on November 4th.</p>
