Trade war easing drives Bitcoin's strong rebound to $115,000

Core Summary

Bitcoin successfully broke through the $115,000 mark on October 27, 2025 (UTC), marking its strongest performance since mid-October. This strong rebound was driven by significant progress in US-China trade negotiations, with the two sides reaching a preliminary consensus in Kuala Lumpur, effectively easing trade war tensions. Technically, BTC has risen approximately 7% from its October 22 low of $107,000, accompanied by strong on-chain accumulation signals and institutional inflows.

Key progress in easing the trade war

Kuala Lumpur Negotiations

US and Chinese negotiators held two days of high-level trade talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 25-26. The talks involved US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, US Trade Representative Jameson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two sides focused on de-escalating the ongoing tariff dispute and addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in the areas of critical minerals and technology.

Contents of the preliminary framework agreement

The initial framework agreed upon includes the following key measures:

• Tariff Suspension : Agreeing to a pause in further escalation, avoiding the imposition of 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods (as high as 157% in some sectors) and reciprocal 125% tariffs on U.S. goods by China
• Rare Earths and Export Controls : Agreed to ease China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals, effective since September 2025, restoring critical supply flows to the U.S. technology and defense industries; in exchange, the U.S. agreed to review export licenses for advanced semiconductors to China.
• Other areas : Progress in curbing the shipment of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China to the United States, reducing transportation costs along bilateral trade routes, and procuring soybeans.

Technical analysis: Strong momentum to break through 115K

Key Price Levels

Multi-time frame signals

The current price of $115,029 has successfully broken through the key resistance level, and technical indicators have turned strong across the board:

• Short-term (15 minutes/1 hour) : RSI reaches 67-79 (overbought but trend intact), MACD histogram continues to rise
• Medium-term (4-hour) : RSI 74.3, strong MACD histogram, super trend bullish
• Long-term (daily) : RSI neutral at 55, MACD showing bullish divergence

Derivatives market analysis

Open interest rose 4.89% to $75 billion, indicating growing confidence in the upward trend.

• Funding rate : +0.006% to +0.01% (8-hour interval), longs pay shorts but leverage risk is lower
• Biggest pain points for options : $114,000 (nearest expiration 10/31); $115,000 (longer expiration 11/28)
• Liquidation risk : $169 million total over 24 hours (mostly shorts $157 million vs longs $12 million)

On-chain data support

Exchange Fund Flow

Between October 25th and 27th, Bitcoin continued to flow out of exchanges, reducing sell-side liquidity:

• Net outflow : Early outflows supported price increases, while small inflows later indicated cautious sentiment.
• Large investor activity : bc1qd3 address accumulated $356 million (approximately 3,200 BTC) in 5 hours, indicating institutional-level accumulation

Accumulation distribution pattern

"Dolphin" holders (100-1,000 BTC) added 681,000 BTC this year, controlling 26% of the supply, indicating medium-term institutional accumulation. Long-term holders (155 days+) sold an average of 22,000 BTC per day, but the overall accumulation trend remained positive.

Social sentiment analysis

Twitter/X community reaction

Social media is showing strong excitement over Bitcoin's breakout above $115,000. Influencers are highlighting the price's breakout above the key resistance range of $ 115,000-116,000 , viewing it as confirmation of upward momentum. The community is describing the rise as a "clean rebound" that signals a trend turning point.

Trade Progress Response

Reactions to reports of progress in US-China trade have been overwhelmingly positive among crypto users. Community members expressed relief that escalatory measures such as 100% tariffs or rare earth export restrictions have been avoided, linking them to broader risk appetite flows.

Comparison of influencer opinions

Analysts generally link Bitcoin's rise to trade easing, arguing that the US-China consensus directly triggered a breakout above $115,000 by reducing geopolitical uncertainty. However, Peter Schiff raised a counter-argument, questioning Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" because it rose while gold fell on the same positive trade news .

Market Outlook and Risk Assessment

Positive factors

• MVRV ratio of 2.26 (historically, >2 indicates relative undervaluation)
• Exchange reserves fall by $4.8 billion, supply tightens
• Institutional accumulation trend is clear, and ETF inflows are strong

Risk factors

• Long-term holders continue to distribute, with an average of 22,000 BTC per day
• Signs of slowing capital inflows
• Options and derivatives show rising hedging demand

Technical goals

After breaking through $115,027, the next target is $116,000. If the trade deal is finalized, technical support could lead to a further rise to $118,000. Key support is $114,787, below which $113,000 could be retested.

in conclusion

The significant de-escalation of the US-China trade war provided a strong catalyst for Bitcoin, propelling it back towards the $115,000 mark. The technical breakout was supported by institutional accumulation, exchange outflows, and a healthy derivatives market. While there are risks such as long-term holder distribution, the overall trend remains bullish. If trade negotiations are finally confirmed at the Trump-Xi meeting, Bitcoin is expected to continue its march towards the $120,000 region.