ZEC continues to rise potential analysis

Core Conclusion

ZEC has the foundation to continue rising, but faces the risk of a short-term correction . Technically, it shows clear overbought signals, but fundamental catalysts are strong. It is expected that after consolidating at the $350 support level, it will continue to move towards the $400-500 target.

Key figures at a glance

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe signals

Key price analysis

Support level :

• $350 - Medium Strength (4-hour Bollinger middle band, long position closing zone)
• $340 - Strong Support (Cumulative long position liquidation $8 million risk exposure)
• $314 - 4-hour EMA12, recent pullback low

Resistance Level :

• $370 - Strong resistance (short closing cluster, psychological level)
• $380 - Cumulative short position closing of $8 million exposure
• $386 - Strong resistance ($10 million risk on short position closing at upper end)

Fundamental Catalysts

Shielded pool growth

Privacy adoption surges : 4.5M+ ZEC enters shielded pool ( 28% of circulating supply), valued at approximately $1.6B at current prices.Coincentral sees a net inflow of +1M ZEC in the last three weeks, locking up long-term supply.

Halving effect

Halving in November 2025 : The third halving will reduce the block reward from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC, and the daily new supply will be halved to approximately 1,600 ZEC. Historically, there has been a supply shock-driven rally 3-6 months before the halving.

Network activity

• Trading volume : 10,466 transactions in 24 hours, a 20% increase compared to September
• Active addresses : 0.5-0.8k daily, up 30% from the July low
• Hashrate : 10.49 GH/s remains stable

Market position analysis

Privacy coin sector performance

The privacy coin sector is expected to increase by 71.6% in 2025, outperforming Bitcoin (27.1%) and Ethereum (33.4%). Yellow ZEC leads the pack with a 694% annual increase , significantly surpassing:

• Monero (XMR) : +129% year-over-year growth, market cap $6.37 billion (#32)
• Dash (DASH) : +86% year-over-year growth, market cap $658 million

Arthur Hayes $10,000 Prediction

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that ZEC could reach $10,000 , arguing that its zero-knowledge proof technology and optional privacy features offer advantages for mainstream adoption in a regulated environment. Following KuCoin 's prediction, ZEC's price immediately surged 20.8% to $332.52.

Social sentiment analysis

Community engagement

ZEC discussions on the X platform are dominated by bullish sentiment , with users emphasizing technical strength and breakout patterns. Key narratives include:

• The upcoming November halving catalyst
• Advantages of Zero-Knowledge Proof Technology over Monero Ring Signatures
• The Compliance Advantages of Optional Privacy

Influencer Viewpoint

Analysts are generally bullish:

• @gainzy222 predicts a price squeeze and the next round of market leadership
• @AltcoinSherpa calls it an "extremely strong chart"
• @ThorTorrens repeatedly highlights JPMorgan's historical support

Risk factors

Technical risks

• Extremely overbought : Weekly RSI reaches 90, which historically is usually accompanied by a 10-20% pullback.
• Leverage risk : Futures open interest surged 66.64% to $566 million, raising the risk of excessive leverage.

Regulatory risks

• EU Ban : MiCA Regulation Will Ban Privacy Coin Transactions in July 2027
• Exchange delisting : Binance, Kraken, and others have delisted some privacy coins

Market risks

• Liquidity risk : Daily trading volume is only 10,000 transactions, and large-scale selling may cause severe fluctuations
• Whales reduce their holdings : Recent net outflow of $4 million, whales take profits

Price Prediction

Short-term (1-3 months)

Target price : $400-500

• Based on halving catalysts and technological breakthroughs
• A break above $370 resistance is needed to trigger a short squeeze

Risk of pullback : $340-350

• Overbought correction and profit-taking pressure
• Key support level testing

Medium to long term (6-12 months)

Optimistic scenario : $600-1000

• The halving effect is fully fermented
• Shielding pool utilization rate reaches 40%+
• Institutional product promotion

Conservative scenario : $250-400

• Regulatory pressure continues
• Impact of the overall market correction

Investment Advice

Conditions for continued bullishness

✅Shielded pool inflow maintains >500,000 ZEC/month ✅Active addresses exceed 1,000+
✅Healthy growth in futures open interest ✅Breaking through $370 triggers a short squeeze

warning sign

⚠️ Reserves surge or trading volume falls below 5,000 transactions/day ⚠️ RSI divergence appears on the 4-hour/daily chart ⚠️ Breaking below the $340 support level ⚠️ Funding rate exceeds 0.05% (over-leverage)

Trading strategies

Aggressive strategy : Enter at the current price of $362, target $380, stop loss $350 (risk-reward ratio 1.5:1)

Conservative strategy : Wait for a pullback to the $340-350 range to enter the market, target $450-500, stop loss $320

Probability Assessment :

• Continued rise to $400+: 70%
• Pullback followed by rise: 20%
• Deep adjustment below $250: 10%

As the leading privacy coin, ZEC continues to rise, driven by multiple positive factors including the halving catalyst, shielded pool growth, and institutional attention. However, technical overbought signals warn investors of the risk of a short-term correction and suggest building positions in batches or waiting for a better entry point.