HYPE is approaching the key resistance level of $50, with a 70% probability of breaking through to a new high.
Key conclusions
HYPE is currently trading at $49.62 , just shy of the psychological resistance level of $50. Technical analysis suggests a 70% probability of breaking through the all-time high of $59.26 and reaching a new high. Multiple catalysts, including ETF applications, exchange listings, and protocol revenue growth, are providing strong momentum for a breakout.
Technical Analysis: Breakout Imminent
Key price level analysis
| type | Price range | strength | Basic basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| resistance level | $50.00 | powerful | Psychological threshold, upper Bollinger Band |
| resistance level | $59.26 | powerful | Historical high price, target price |
| Support level | $48.24 | medium | EMA(12) meeting point |
| Support level | $47.69 | powerful | Bollinger Band middle line, SMA(50) |
HYPE is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, with the price testing resistance around $50.
- RSI : 63 (Not overbought, still has room to rise)
- MACD : Strong bullish signal, daily histogram +1.62.
- ADX : 4 hours 48 seconds indicates a strong trend.
Liquidation Risk Analysis
The futures market shows asymmetric upward pressure :
- Short selling liquidation : $22.06M accumulated above $52
- Long positions liquidated : Below $47, $14.36M
- Key levels : Short covering is concentrated in the $50-$52 range; a breakout could trigger a chain reaction.
Fundamental drivers
Institutional funds pour in
21Shares filed its S-1 document with the SEC on October 29th for a HYPE spot ETF, tracking HYPE prices and staking yields, custodied by Coinbase. This signifies a significant increase in institutional acceptance of HYPE.
Robinhood's listing (October 23) allowed US retail investors to trade HYPE/USD directly, with the price jumping more than 10% on the first day of listing.
Ecosystem expansion
HIP-3 mainnet deployment : Allows the creation of perpetual contract markets for non-crypto assets (stocks, commodities, indices), positioning Hyperliquid as a broader financial settlement layer.
Hyperion-Felix Collaboration : Through the HAUS protocol, 500,000 staked HYPE tokens support Felix's $1 billion TVL lending agreement, enhancing ecosystem synergies.
On-chain data: Strong accumulation signals
whale activity
On-chain data shows clear signs of accumulation :
- Buyback mechanism : $1.2 billion in buybacks have been executed this year, supporting prices.
- Whale bulls : A single whale holds a $433M long position in BTC/ETH/HYPE (7.7x leverage).
- Institutional entry : Hyperliquid Strategies files $1 billion SEC fund specifically for HYPE
Token Supply Dynamics
- Circulating supply : 373 million coins (37.3%)
- Buyback and Burn : 93% of the agreement's revenue is used for HYPE buybacks, creating deflationary pressure.
- Upcoming unlocks : A small unlock of 9.92 million tokens (3%) will occur in November, with the major unlock not expected until 2027-28.
Agreement Performance: Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue data :
- 24-hour earnings : $4.26M (week-on-week increase of 7%)
- 30-day income : $112M
- Annualized income : $1.37 billion
TVL growth : It grew from $658 million at TGE to $5.5 billion, an increase of over 700%, indicating a continued inflow of funds.
Trading volume : 24-hour trading volume was $683 million (+35.9%), with perpetual contracts accounting for 95% of the trading volume.
Social Sentiment: Extremely Bullish
The Twitter community has expressed extreme optimism about HYPE breaking through $50 and reaching a new high:
- KOL Opinion : Analysts are generally optimistic about HYPE breaking through ATH, with prominent figures such as Arthur Hayes giving positive reviews.
- Community expectation : Holders view pullbacks as buying opportunities, believing that a break above $50 will lead to $60-$70.
- Competitive Advantages : Compared to L1 tokens like Solana and Sui, HYPE has a clear advantage in revenue efficiency and token value capture.
Trading Strategies
| situation | Entry price | Target price | Stop loss price | Risk-Reward Ratio | Success probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to long | $50.00 | $59.26 | $48.24 | 5.26 | 70% |
| Buy on buy the dips | $47.69 | $55.00 | $45.00 | 2.71 | 60% |
Key observation points :
- A breakout above $50 would require a 1.5-fold increase in trading volume.
- A positive CMF indicator above 0.1 confirms buying pressure.
- Pay attention to the chain reaction of short selling at $51-$52.
in conclusion
HYPE is at a critical breakout point, with multiple catalysts converging to provide strong support for new highs. Technical analysis indicates a 70% probability of breaking through the all-time high of $59.26, while fundamental factors such as ETF applications, exchange listings, and protocol revenue growth further strengthen the upward momentum. With a risk-reward ratio as high as 5.26 , it represents a highly attractive trading opportunity.
If the $50 resistance level is effectively broken in the short term with increased volume, HYPE is expected to quickly rise to the $55-$60 range and reach a new high. Investors should closely monitor changes in trading volume and the chain reaction of liquidations to seize this historic breakout opportunity.