In-depth analysis of the MegaETH public sale event
TL;DR
MegaETH ($MEGA) attracted over 50,000 wallets to its 72-hour public auction held from October 27th to 30th, with effective subscriptions reaching $1.391 billion , representing a 27.8-fold oversubscription of the $50 million hard cap. The project team will announce the final winning list and lock-up options on November 5th (UTC); token distribution is expected to take place from November 19th to 21st, with TGE (transactions available) as early as December 2025. This sale was completed at a liquidation price of 0.0999 USDT , implying a $999 million FDV , and offered a one-year 10% discount lock-up option.
Core Analysis
1. Key Sales Indicators
| index | Numerical | illustrate |
|---|---|---|
| Fundraising amount | 50 million USDT | Reaching the hard top |
| Valid subscription | 1.391 billion USDT | 27.8 × Oversubscription bankless |
| liquidation price | 0.0999 USDT / MEGA | Corresponding FDV of $999 million icodrops |
| Participate in wallet | ≈53,000 | 59,497 on-chain transactions (tradingview) |
| Minimum guarantee | 5,000 units of 2,650 USDT quota | Chaincatcher for the core community |
2. Important Timeline
| Date (UTC) | event | detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10-27 21:00 | English auction begins | 5% supply (500 million units) |
| 10-30 21:00 | Auction ended | Oversubscription of 27.8× |
| 10-30–11-05 | Allocation calculation | Core supporters are given priority, and the remainder is allocated proportionally. |
| 11-05 | Announcement of winning bids/lock-up options | Refund initiated simultaneously |
| 11-19–11-21 | Token Distribution | Unlocked portion can be withdrawn |
| ≥12-09 | Earliest TGE estimate | On the stock exchange and in circulation, enable the drop tab. |
3. Lock-up and Discount Scheme
| Participants | Is it mandatory? | Lock-up period | Discount | Percentage of public sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-US investors | voluntary | 12 months | 10% (converted price 0.0899) | not disclosed |
| US compliant investors | Forced | 12 months | 10% | not disclosed |
| Other investors | No lock-up | 0 months | 0% | main body |
This design encourages long-term holding while maintaining a secondary liquidity window. (coinmarketcap)
4. Valuation and Market Impact
- Auction FDV: $999 million, a relatively conservative price for similar L2 (Arbitrum TGE FDV ≈ $3 billion).
- Off-exchange premium: Hyperliquid's pre-market price is 0.42–0.50 USDT, implying a potential FDV of 4–5 times (≈4–5 billion) , but there is a risk of a pullback. (blocktempo)
- Supply and demand structure: Only 5% is immediately available, and the lock-up discount absorbs some of the selling pressure; the team/investors will release the shares linearly over 1–4 years.
- Key risks: The L2 track is crowded, and there are controversies surrounding the decentralization of single Sequencer. If the mainnet is delayed or the TPS target is not met, the premium may evaporate quickly.
On-chain dynamics
- Auction contract (0xab02…8461):
• 59,497 successful transactions, 53,411 unique addresses.
• Deposited 1.391 B USDT , and has initially refunded 17,000 USDT. (tradingview) - Fluff SBT NFT: 5,000 tokens minted, holders receive a +5% allocation bonus; not tradable on the secondary market, floor price approximately 0.7 ETH. (chaincatcher)
- Testnet metrics: 1.2 million cumulative transactions, 25,000 active addresses, and a benchmark of 10-20k TPS, demonstrating an active developer ecosystem. (token.megaeth.com)
Social sentiment analysis
| theme | mainstream view | temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Oversubscription Analysis | Ethereum's ultimate L2 technology has gained market endorsement. | 🔥🔥🔥 |
| Distribution anxiety | Concerns about low lottery success rates and KYC privacy controversies | 🔥🔥 |
| Centralization Question | A single Sequencer is referred to as "mega-centralized". | 🔥 |
| Lock-up discount | Long-term friendly, but lacks short-term liquidity. | 🔥 |
Overall sentiment is optimistic, but unfair distribution on November 5th could trigger public opinion fluctuations.
in conclusion
The MegaETH public sale, with its 27.8x oversubscription and nearly $1.4 billion in subscriptions, demonstrates the strong market demand for high-performance Ethereum L2. The relatively restrained $999 million FDV pricing, coupled with only 5% immediate circulation and a voluntary lock-up discount, provides support for short-term supply and demand. However, intense competition in the sector, centralization controversies, and high premium expectations increase volatility risks. The allocation announcement on November 5th and the TGE after December will be key windows for price discovery; close attention should be paid to mainnet progress and community sentiment.