Monad (MON) Valuation Analysis: Is an FDV of nearly $5 billion an overvaluation?
TL;DR
Monex currently has a FDV of approximately $4.76 billion, representing an 86% increase from its public offering price, indicating a significant risk of overvaluation . Despite rapid growth in on-chain activity since the mainnet launch (TVL reaching $118 million), its valuation is 2-3 times higher than comparable L1 blockchains, leading to widespread community skepticism. Technical indicators suggest severe overbuying. While short-term momentum remains strong, the risk of a pullback should be carefully considered.
Core Valuation Analysis
Current Valuation Overview
| index | numerical values | state | Evaluate |
|---|---|---|---|
| price | $0.047 | +86% vs. offering price ($0.025) | 🔴 Overestimated |
| FDV | $4.76 billion | Approaching the target of 5 billion | 🔴 Too high |
| Market capitalization | $515 million | Circulation rate: 10.8% | 🟡 Moderate |
| 24-hour increase | +44% | Recent surge | 🔴 Overheating |
MON experienced a brief dip below its initial offering price (falling to $0.022) after its mainnet launch on November 24th, before rebounding strongly, with a gain of over 110% in three days. (coindesk)
Comparison with similar L1 valuations
| L1 Project | Mainnet time | Startup phase FDV | Current FDV | Monad comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monad | November 2025 | $4.76 billion | $4.76 billion | - |
| Sui | May 2023 | ~$2 billion | ~$15 billion | 2.4 times higher |
| Aptos | October 2022 | $1-2 billion | ~$21 billion | 2-5 times higher |
| Sei | August 2023 | ~$1.4 billion | ~$1.4 billion | 3.4 times higher |
Conclusion : Monad's initial FDV was significantly higher than similar projects, indicating a potential valuation bubble risk. surf
On-chain activity analysis
Network growth metrics
Monad mainnet has only been online for 3 days, but it has already shown strong growth momentum:
- TVL growth : surged from $960,000 to $118 million (+12,000%), primarily driven by bridging and DeFi applications.
- Daily active users : Approximately 25,000 (day 3), a growth of +25%.
- Transaction volume : 360,000 transactions in total, with an average of 200,000 transactions per day.
- Ecosystem Applications : 234 dApps launched, 20 active applications
Top application usage
| application | Active users | Number of transactions | TVL | type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nad.fun | 11,181 | 123,665 | $5 million | Startup Platform |
| Uniswap | 17,299 | 84,700 | $20 million | DEX |
| OpenSea | 9,901 | 13,542 | $2 million | The NFT Market |
| GMGN.Ai | 3,355 | 104,299 | $1 million | Analysis tools |
On-chain data shows good early adoption, but it is still in its early stages, with most TVL coming from liquidity bridging rather than organic growth.
Community sentiment analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
The community generally holds a cautious view on Monad's valuation, with the main concerns being:
Bullish view :
- The mainnet demonstrated excellent technical performance after startup (parallel EVM execution).
- Rapid ecosystem development and key integrations (Wormhole, Caldera)
- Historically, L1 projects have all faced similar skepticism in their early stages.
Bearish view :
- The FDV is too high, lacking a clear advantage compared to competitors such as Sei.
- VC-led token distribution limits profit potential for retail investors.
- L1 track fatigue makes it difficult for new projects to stand out.
Key opinion leader perspectives
| KOL | position | Key points |
|---|---|---|
| Nansen | bullish activities | First-day metrics exceeded the typical performance of new blockchains (x.com). |
| Andrew Moh | Relatively bearish | Monad overhyped vs. Sei's established performance (x.com) |
| Mad Vincent | Defensive bullish | Early price fluctuations are normal; patience is required . (x.com) |
Overall sentiment is cautiously bearish , with valuation concerns outweighing technical optimism.
Technical Analysis
Price trends and key levels
Current technical status :
- Price : $0.047 (close to resistance level $0.048)
- RSI : 87.4 (4 hours) - Severely overbought
- Trend : Strong upward trend, but overextended.
Derivatives data
- Open interest : $175 million (a 69.6% surge in 24 hours)
- Funding rate : Bybit is negative (-0.041%), indicating that short sellers are paying long sellers.
- Liquidation risk : $4 million in long positions could be liquidated below $0.046, and $2.6 million in short positions could be liquidated above $0.050.
Technical indicators show strong momentum, but overbought signals are evident, and there is a risk of a pullback to the $0.045 support level.
Token unlocking risk
Unlock Schedule
| category | percentage | quantity | Unlock time | Risk rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecological development | 38.5% | 38.5 billion | Unlocked (Foundation Management) | 🟡 Medium |
| team | 27% | 27 billion | Starting November 2026 (1-year lock-up period) | 🟢 Low risk |
| investor | 19.7% | 19.7 billion | 4-year lock-in, 1-year cliff period | 🟢 Low risk |
| Public offering sales | 7.5% | 7.5 billion | Unlocked | 🔴 Released |
Key risk : Although most tokens are still locked up, 38.5% of the ecosystem tokens have been unlocked and are controlled by the foundation, posing a potential selling pressure.
in conclusion
Valuation assessment: Overvalued
Core judgment :
- FDV is too high : 2-5 times higher than the valuation at startup of similar L1 systems.
- There is a clear element of speculation : 86% of the gains were driven primarily by speculation rather than fundamentals.
- Technically overbought : RSI above 85, consolidation needed.
- Community skepticism : Market widely doubts valuation
Investment advice
Short term (1-2 weeks) :
- 🔴High Risk : Technical indicators are severely overbought, with a high probability of a pullback.
- Key level : Hold the $0.045 support; a break below this level would target $0.040.
Mid-term (1-3 months) :
- 🟡Observational Attitude : Focus on ecological development and actual adoption.
- Reasonable FDV : Referring to the Sei level, approximately $2-3 billion is reasonable.
Risk Warning : Factors such as token unlocking pressure, intense L1 competition, and shifts in market sentiment may lead to a significant pullback. It is recommended to wait for a more reasonable entry point.