WLFI Investment Analysis: The Truth Behind the Rebound and Risk Assessment
Key points
WLFI's actual increase over the past week was +17.73% (not 50%), and the current price of $0.1704 shows a short-term technical bullish trend, but it faces highly concentrated position risk and mixed community sentiment. Caution is advised, with close attention paid to the key support level of $0.1510.
Price performance analysis
Actual price change data correction
| Time period | Starting price | End Price | Change | User claims |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The past 7 days (November 19 to November 26) | $0.14055 | $0.16548 | +17.73% | >50% |
| In the past 24 hours | - | $0.1704 | +10.05% | - |
The 50% increase mentioned by users is inaccurate ; the actual 7-day increase was 17.73%, which, while good, is far lower than the claimed figure. (coingecko)
Current market data
- Current price : $0.1704 (2025-11-26 04:48 UTC)
- Market capitalization : $4.64 billion (based on circulating supply)
- Fully diluted valuation : $17.04 billion
- Circulation rate : 27.24% (27.24 billion / 100 billion total supply)
Technical Analysis
Multi-timeframe technical indicators
| Timeframe | trend | RSI(14) | MACD | Bollinger Bands Position | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | bullish | 66.8 | +0.00115 (Golden Cross) | Approaching the upper rail | 🟢 Powerful kinetic energy |
| 4 hours | bullish | 65.8 | +0.00140 (Expansion) | Touching the upper rail | 🟢 Complete Trend |
| Daily chart | bullish | 65.0 | +0.00368 (Strong bullish trend) | Approaching the upper rail | 🟢 Bullish on daily chart |
| Weekly chart | neutral | 43.8 | N/A | N/A | 🟡 Sorting out biases |
Key price level
- Strong support : $0.1510 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower line + moving average cluster)
- Resistance level : $0.1710 (Upper Bollinger Band)
- Strong resistance : $0.1730 (Short liquidation cluster)
Short-term technical indicators suggest continued upward momentum , but the RSI is approaching overbought territory, so it's important to watch whether the $0.1510 support level can hold.
Derivatives and Fund Flow Analysis
Futures market sentiment
- Open interest : Up 15.6% in the last 24 hours to $309 million.
- Funding rates : All major exchanges have negative rates (-0.068% Binance, -0.088% Bybit).
- Liquidation status : Total $1.06 million in 24 hours (48% long / 52% short)
The increase in open interest coupled with rising prices indicates a strong bullish sentiment , and the negative funding rate means that short sellers have to pay long positions, which is beneficial to holders.
On-chain risk analysis
Extremely concentrated portfolio structure
| Holdings Ranking | Address type | Open interest | Proportion of circulation | Risk rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1-2 | World Liberty Fi entity | 26.9 billion | ~108% | 🔴 Extremely high |
| Top 3-5 | Big House | 8.9 billion | ~36% | 🔴 High |
| Top 10 | total | 39 billion | ~63% | 🔴 Extremely high |
Serious warning : The top 10 holders control 63% of the circulating supply, and the holdings of project-related entities are extremely concentrated, posing a huge risk of a sell-off .
Recent large transfers
- 2025-11-25: 55.69 million tokens flowed out of the treasury.
- 2025-11-21: 80.44 million tokens transferred internally within the exchange.
- A total of over 2 billion tokens have been circulating recently, primarily for unlocking and distribution.
Community sentiment analysis
Public opinion is clearly divided.
Bullish view:
- Project buybacks and whale accumulation are supporting price increases . (x.com)
- The new wallet used 25 million USD to purchase 165 million WLFI from x.com within 3 days.
- Trump's family background is a catalyst for crypto policy.
Bearish concerns:
- The concentration of 80% of supply and insider dominance has been cited as "maximum extraction" by x.com.
- Justin Sun money transfer led to his being blacklisted and accusations of indirectly causing a market crash (x.com).
- Trump family ties spark panic over divestment and insider trading . (x.com)
Transaction feasibility
Major exchanges covered
| Exchange | spot trading pairs | futures | 24-hour spot volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | WLFI/USDT, USDC, etc. | ✅ | $43 million+ | excellent |
| Bybit | WLFI/USDT | ✅ | $7 million+ | good |
| OKX | WLFI/USDT,USD | ✅ | $14 million | good |
| Coinbase | WLFI/USD | ❌ | Moderate | generally |
All major exchanges support trading, with Binance dominating trading volume and offering ample liquidity to support large transactions.
Investment advice
risk assessment
🔴High-risk factors:
- Extremely concentrated holdings structure (the top 2 holders hold 108% of the circulating shares).
- The project team controls a large number of tokens, posing an extremely high risk of a sell-off.
- The community is highly divided and rife with controversy.
- It has fallen 48% from ATH $0.331, but is still at a high level.
🟡Medium risk factors:
- While the technical outlook is bullish in the short term, the RSI is nearing overbought levels.
- Derivatives funding rates are negative, giving short sellers an advantage.
- The unlocking process continues, and supply pressure remains.
🟢Positive Factors:
- Short-term technical indicators are strong, and the outlook is bullish across multiple timeframes.
- Increased open interest indicates institutional interest
- Coverage of all major exchanges, ample liquidity
Conclusions and operational recommendations
Large-position entry is not recommended . If you are considering participating, the following is suggested:
- Small position trial : maximum 1-3% of assets allocated, with strict stop-loss.
- Key level trading : Wait for a pullback to the $0.1510 support level before considering any action; exit immediately if it breaks through.
- Short-term thinking : Utilize technical indicators for upward movement but avoid long-term holding.
- Closely monitor : Pay attention to the movements of large investors and the unlocking process.
Overall assessment : WLFI is more suitable for experienced short-term speculators, while ordinary investors should prioritize more diversified and lower-risk crypto assets.