IRYS IPO Analysis: Has it peaked?
TL;DR
IRYS did indeed list on several major exchanges after TGE on November 25th, but Bithumb has not yet confirmed its listing . Technical indicators show that upward momentum remains, with the RSI at 66 not reaching overbought levels, and a 567% increase in futures open interest supporting bullish sentiment. However, there is controversy within the community regarding the airdrop distribution, coupled with a highly concentrated holding structure (the top four wallets account for 75%), which may lead to profit-taking pressure in the short term.
Core Analysis
Stock Exchange Listings
| Exchange | Product Type | Trading Pair | Release date (UTC) | state |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binance Alpha | Spot goods | IRYS/USDT, IRYS/USDC | 2025-11-25 11:00 | In the transaction |
| Binance | Perpetual Contract | IRYS/USDT | 2025-11-26 16:00 | In the transaction |
| Coinbase | Spot goods | IRYS/USD | 2025-11-25 00:00 | In the transaction |
| Bitget | Spot goods | IRYS/USDT | 2025-11-25 13:00 | Bitget in transactions |
| KuCoin | Spot goods | IRYS/USDT | 2025-11-25 13:00 | KuCoin in the transaction |
Key findings :
- Binance : Spot trading is only available on the Alpha platform; trading is primarily conducted through futures contracts.
- Bithumb : Launch unconfirmed , only unofficial rumors exist.
- Major exchanges such as Coinbase and KuCoin already support spot trading.
Technical Analysis
Current price structure :
- Price : $0.0524 (08:00 UTC on the 27th)
- Key resistance : $0.0592 (Upper Bollinger Band)
- Key support : $0.0421 (1-hour EMA26)
| Timeframe | trend | RSI | Signal evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | bullish | 66 | 🟢 Momentum remains intact, price is above the moving average. |
| 4 hours | bullish | N/A | 🟢 Early upward trend |
| Daily chart | bullish | N/A | 🟢 Strong performance after listing, supported by moving averages |
Derivatives Market Signals :
- Open interest surged 567% to $12.7M in 24 hours, indicating strong market interest.
- Funding fees : Binance -0.058%, Bybit +0.005% (short sellers pay long sellers).
- Forced liquidation data : Short liquidation at $0.61M vs. long liquidation at $0.43M, reflecting short squeeze.
On-chain activity analysis
Cash holdings distribution (as of November 27):
- Total holders : 6,603 addresses (grown from 0 in 3 days)
- Concentration : The top 4 wallets control 75% of the circulating supply.
- Exchange wallets : Bitget 5%, KuCoin 0.3%, Coinbase 0.3%
Activity metrics :
- Transfer events : 30,639 (since launch)
- 24-hour change : -53% (indicating a decrease in activity)
- Airdrop distribution : Approximately 10,000 users received an allocation of 279-1,440 tokens each.
Social sentiment analysis
KOLs have differing opinions :
| position | Representative figures | Key points | Impact Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| bullish | @ripchillpill | "The technical team is excellent; TGE is the starting line." x.com | Technical Builder Support |
| bearish | @HODLguy_ | "Unfair airdrop distribution, ignoring testnet users" x.com | Community oversight voices |
| neutral | @irys_xyz | Official mainnet launch announcement, warning against fake cryptocurrency site x.com | Project stability maintenance |
Community Controversy Points :
- The airdrop was only distributed to the first 10,000 users, with testnet contributors receiving fewer rewards.
- Only 8% of the total supply is used for incentives, raising questions about the lack of transparency in the allocation mechanism.
Valuation Assessment
| index | Current value | Market Comparison | Risk signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | ~$102M | The new L1 project is at a medium level. | 🟡 |
| circulation rate | 20% | 80% pending unlocking (48 months) | 🔴 High unlocking pressure |
| Daily trading volume | $70-116M | Exceeding market capitalization, obvious speculation. | 🔴 |
| Concentration of cash holdings | 75% (Top 4 wallets) | Extreme concentration | 🔴 Selling pressure risk |
in conclusion
IRYS has not yet clearly peaked , and technical indicators show that upward momentum remains, with bulls dominating the futures market. However, the project faces three major risks:
- The rumor of Bithumb going public is false ; its actual network coverage is limited.
- The extremely high concentration (75% of the chips are in the top 4 wallets) poses a significant threat of selling pressure.
- Divided community sentiment and controversy over airdrops could affect long-term adoption.
The short-term technical target is $0.0592, but investors should be wary of the risk of a break below the $0.0421 support level. It is recommended to pay attention to the unlocking schedule (starting December 25th) and changes in the distribution of holdings.