Arthur Hayes buys Altcoin: personal buy the dips or a market reversal?
Key points
Arthur Hayes did accumulate approximately $3.18 million worth of DeFi tokens in the past 48 hours, but technical and on-chain data show no significant shift in the overall market rhythm . BTC holdings remained stable at 59%, and Altcoin continued to perform weakly. Hayes' actions appear more like a buy the dips operation based on his personal macroeconomic judgment.
Hayes Purchase Details
| Tokens | Purchase quantity | Investment amount | average price | Total holdings | Strategy Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENA | 4.89M | $1.37 million | $0.28 | $1.37 million | I sold 5.02 million tokens at $0.275 two weeks ago and then bought them back. |
| ETHFI | 696K | $543,000 | $0.80 | $543,000 | Purchase via FalconX/Cumberland OTC |
| PENDLE | 436K | $1.13 million | $2.70 | $1.13 million | Focus on yield trading protocol |
Hayes' strategy focuses on real-yield DeFi protocols , including Ethena Synthetic USD, ether.fi liquidity staking, and Pendle yield trading, anticipating that the return of liquidity after the Fed QT ends will drive a recovery in the value of these protocols. lookonchain
Technical analysis: No obvious signs of rotation
BTC market share trend
- 24-hour period : Stable at 59.03%, with minimal fluctuations.
- On the 7th : the percentage dropped slightly from 61.4% to 59%, but this mainly reflects the rebound of BTC from $80,000 rather than the strength of Altcoin.
- Key level : Without breaking through the 58% support level, the signal for the start of the altcoin season is lacking.
Altcoin Performance Analysis
| index | BTC | ENA | ETHFI | Market Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D RSI | 40.5 | 43.2 | 43.4 | 🔴 Generally oversold but no rebound |
| Daily trend | bearish | bearish | bearish | 🔴 All are below key moving averages |
| MACD | Weak positive | Weak positive | Weak positive | 🟡 The market has stabilized at the bottom but has not broken through. |
Derivatives data
BTC futures market : Total open interest $59.5 billion (-2.39% 24h), deleveraging trend continues.
ETH futures market : Open interest is $35.8 billion (-3.81% 24h), and the negative funding rate indicates a short bias.
The biggest pain point for options : BTC is concentrated in the $90,000-$100,000 range, and the current price of $91,019 is close to the biggest pain point, while option liquidity is stable.
On-chain data: Fund flow analysis
ENA on-chain activities
- 24-hour trading volume : $50.27 million (5,713 transactions)
- DEX Trading : $2 million, with sell orders accounting for 54%.
- Large transfers : 12 transactions exceeding 1 million tokens each, with 60% flowing to non-exchange wallets.
ETHFI on-chain performance
- 24-hour trading volume : $3.62 million (1,180 transactions)
- DEX trading : $370,000, with buy orders accounting for 58%.
- Fund Flow : The agreement's treasury increased its holdings by $200,000, demonstrating the project team's confidence.
Compared to the overall daily trading volume of $800 million in the LST/staking sector, ENA/ETHFI only accounts for 0.2% of the total, a significant gap compared to Lido's $450 million and Rocket Pool's $120 million.
Social-emotional response: indifferent
Community Response
- Twitter discussion : Factual reports limited to on-chain data tracking accounts
- KOL's perspective : Lack of high-quality analysis; mainly neutral data sharing.
- Rotation Discussion : Zero- Related Content Discussion on Fund Rotation from BTC to Altcoin
Narrative Theme
- Re-entry signal : Hayes seen as a vote of confidence in DeFi projects
- Timing skepticism : Some viewpoints question the timing of the entry, considering the recent price retest.
- Lack of broad momentum : Fewer activities during the weekend period, failing to establish a trend-driving force.
in conclusion
Hayes's buying was primarily based on his personal macroeconomic judgment rather than signals of a market rhythm shift . Technical analysis shows:
- BTC share remains stable : the 59% level has not been broken or declined.
- Altcoin remain weak : ENA and ETHFI are both in a downtrend on the daily chart.
- Liquidity Neutral : Stablecoin inflows increased, but there was no large-scale influx of Altcoin.
- Social media lukewarm response : a lack of lively discussion about market rotation.
Hayes' strategy appears more like a forward-looking move based on the Fed's policy shift and the return of liquidity, rather than a reflection of the current structural transformation in the market. Investors should pay attention to whether the BTC share falls below 58% and whether Altcoin' RSI breaks through 50 on the daily chart, as key indicators for confirming rotation.