Bitcoin's Current Status Analysis: Is there still a chance it will reach $100,000 by the end of the year?
Key points
Current price : $91,279 (closing price UTC on November 28), market capitalization $1.812 trillion. It does face upward resistance, but technical and fundamental factors suggest that there is still a 60-70% probability of returning to $100,000 by the end of the year.
Recent performance analysis
Price Trend Review
Bitcoin has indeed experienced a significant correction. It plummeted 22% from a high of $103,000 on November 13th to a low of $81,000 on November 22nd. It subsequently rebounded to its current price of $91,279, representing a net monthly decline of 11%. This correction was primarily driven by the following factors:
- Massive ETF outflows : November saw a record net outflow of $3.79 billion, the worst monthly performance on record (coindesk).
- Technical correction : A 28% pullback from the October ATH $126,000 level is a healthy cyclical correction.
Technical signals
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical position, with multiple indicators suggesting a potential reversal:
| Time period | RSI | MACD | Trend Status | Key position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 48 (Neutral) | bearish | Test lower rail support | $90,673 support |
| 4 hours | 61 (Slightly higher) | bullish | Momentum recovery | Breaking through the key $91,883 |
| Daily chart | 40 (Slightly bearish) | Under improvement | Awaiting confirmation | $93,395 resistance |
| Weekly chart | 39 (Slightly bearish) | Deep adjustment | Long-term downtrend | $100,000 psychological threshold |
Key breakout level : $91,883 - Once broken, the target is $100,000.
In-depth market analysis
Derivatives Market Situation
The futures market is showing positive signs:
- Open interest : $59.3 billion, down 3.24% in 24 hours, indicating that leverage clearing is complete.
- Funding rates : Neutral to bullish
- The biggest pain point for options : concentrated in the $90,000-$100,000 range, creating a magnetic effect.
Positive signals from on-chain data
Strong players continue to accumulate :
- Experienced long-term holders net increased their holdings by 375,000 BTC (CryptoQuant data).
- Exchange reserves fell 25% to 1.84 million BTC, a multi-month low.
- Whale addresses (>1K BTC) control 36% of the total supply, resulting in a stable structure.
Liquidity indicators :
- A net outflow of approximately 100,000 BTC over 30 days indicates off-chain accumulation.
- Although the number of active addresses dropped to 690,000 (reflecting the retail downturn), activity from large customers increased.
Social Emotions and Expert Opinions
Market sentiment
- Twitter/X : Cautiously optimistic, emphasizing this is a "healthy consolidation" rather than the start of a bear market . x.com
- Professional analyst Tom Lee maintains his forecast that the price will likely break through $100,000 by the end of the year. (markets.com )
- Trader survey : Approximately 52% believe it can reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
Key catalysts
The macroeconomic environment is improving :
- The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is as high as 80-85% (Forbes).
- Quantitative tightening ends on December 1st.
- Expectations of liquidity injections boost risk assets
Year-end target assessment of $100,000
Supporting factors (70% weight)
- Technical Analysis : Reverse head and shoulders bottom pattern, neckline at $92,000, projected target $100,000+.
- Fundamentals : Strong accumulation of buyers + depletion of exchange reserves
- Macroeconomic factors : Fed policy shift + improved liquidity
- Historical Pattern : The year-end rebound after the correction is in line with historical patterns.
Risk factors (weight 30%)
- ETF outflows : Confirmation of institutional fund inflows is needed.
- Retail Absence : Declining Active Addresses Reflect Lack of Retail Investor Confidence
- Technical resistance : Multiple timeframes remain in a downtrend.
in conclusion
Bitcoin's current "stagnation" seems more like a consolidation phase before a major surge. This can be analyzed from multiple perspectives:
Probability assessment : 60-70% chance of returning to $100,000 by the end of the year.
- Key breakout level: $91,883
- Time window: After the December Fed meeting
- Risk-reward ratio: 2.42:1 (Excellent)
Investment strategy recommendations :
- Consider entering a position around the support level of $90,673.
- After breaking through $91,883, it rose to $100,000.
- A stop-loss order was set at $87,000 to control risk.
Overall, the current consolidation is a healthy adjustment. Continued accumulation by strong players and an improving macroeconomic environment provide a solid foundation for a move towards $100,000 by the end of the year. Patience is key; simply wait for a breakout confirmation signal.