SAHARA Token Plummet Analysis Report
TL;DR
SAHARA recorded a sharp drop of 55% at around 16:00 UTC on November 29, 2025, with its market value falling to $108M-$112M, well below the public offering price of $600M. The main factors were the unlocking of 84.27 million tokens (3.4% of the total circulating supply) on November 26th and the decrease in liquidity due to the delisting from Binance on November 21st.
Details of the price crash
The timing and magnitude of the crash
The sharp drop at 16:00 UTC on November 29th :
- Open: $0.071208, High: $0.075025, Low: $0.036785, Close: $0.042935 coingecko
- Decrease in 1 hour: Approximately 51% ($0.075 → $0.036785)
- Largest drop from 24-hour high: Approximately 55% ($0.078 → $0.036785) coinmarketcap
Current market situation (as of 2025-11-29 16:16 UTC):
| index | value | 24-hour fluctuation |
|---|---|---|
| price | $0.0455-$0.0457 | -41.4% to -41.7% |
| Market value | $108M-$112M | Significant decrease |
| 24-hour volume | $169M-$195M | +666% |
| Distribution supply amount | ~2.46B SAHARA | - |
Comparison with public offering price
Offering terms : IDO on June 14, 2025 at $0.06, raising $8.5M, initial market value $122M-$600M FDV chainbroker
Current Price vs. IPO Price : $0.0457 (-24%) - Trading below the IPO price
The main reasons for the sudden drop
1. Selling pressure due to token unlock
Big Unlock on November 26 :
- Unlocked amount: 84.27 million SAHARA (approximately 3.4% of circulating supply, equivalent to $6.59M)
- Unlock target: Ecosystem/Community/Airdrop related coinmarketcal
- Cumulative circulating supply: Reached 2.51 billion tokens
Similar past cases : The previous unlock in July 2025 also saw a 60% price drop (coinmarketcap)
2. Impact of delisting from the exchange
Binance Delisting : SAHARA/FDUSD and SAHARA/BNB spot trading pairs will be discontinued on November 21, 2025sosovalue
Impact on liquidity : De-listing from major exchanges reduces liquidity and increases vulnerability to price volatility
3. Ownership concentration risk
High concentration : The top two holders control approximately 54.55% of the total supply
- Largest holder: 34.80% (3.48 billion tokens)
- Second largest holder: 19.75% (1.975 billion tokens)
Technical Analysis
Status of technical indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index) :
- Hourly: 11.67 (deeply oversold)
- 4-hour: 13.71 (also oversold)
MACD :
- Hourly: Histogram -0.00255 (Strong Downward Momentum)
- 48 hours ago it was at +0.00021, but now it is showing a strong bearish turn.
Clearing and Derivatives Data
24-hour liquidation status :
- Total liquidation amount: $2.03 million (mainly long liquidations of $1.58 million vs. short liquidations of $460,000)
- Open interest: Down 40.19% to $39.97 million
Liquidation Risk Map :
- Downside risk: If the price falls to $0.0329, there is a risk of a cumulative long liquidation of $1.89 million.
- Upside resistance: Accumulated short liquidation of $420,000 at $0.0509 level
Social Sentiment Analysis
Community response
Limited Reaction : No significant discussion or reaction was found on Twitter/X in the past 24-48 hours, indicating relatively low community interest.
Official account : @SaharaLabsAI posted a neutral message on November 27th announcing the "announcement in five days"
Influencer Opinions : No specific comments or analysis from major KOLs
conclusion
SAHARA's 55% plunge was primarily due to structural selling pressure from the planned token unlock , exacerbated by market vulnerabilities (high holder concentration, exchange delisting). The current price of $0.0457 is 24% below the public offering price of $0.06, and the market value of $108M-$112M is well below the target of $600M. Technical indicators indicate a deep oversold state, but the risk of further downside liquidation remains.