Bitcoin's December rebound potential analysis
Key points
Current situation : Bitcoin fell back to $87,086 after failing to break through the $90,000 resistance level. However, multiple technical indicators show oversold conditions, and on-chain data shows institutional accumulation signals. Experts generally favor a rebound potential in December. Historical data shows an average increase of 8.42% in December, coupled with expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, making a strong rebound highly probable.
Technical Analysis
Multi-timeframe metrics
| Timeframe | RSI(14) | MACD status | Key signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 16.53 | Extremely oversold, -338.70 | Deeply oversold, high probability of short-term rebound. |
| 4 hours | 30.41 | Bearish but weakening, -387.17 | Approaching oversold territory, there is room for recovery. |
| Daily chart | 33.94 | 629.98 (for official employment) | Early bullish divergence signal |
| Weekly chart | 37.11 | Deeply bearish, -4,025.55 | Neutral to bearish but not excessively overbought |
Key support and resistance levels
- Core support : $84,000-$86,000 (Clearing Cluster Area)
- Immediate resistance : $89,000-$90,000 (the biggest pain point for options)
- Target resistance : $91,000-$92,000 (area of heavy short selling).
Derivatives Market
Futures open interest was $57.1 billion, down 2.8% in 24 hours, indicating reduced leverage and potential stabilization.
In terms of options, the biggest pain point for options expiring on December 5th and December 12th is concentrated around $91,000, which forms a magnetic resistance level.
Expert forecasts and market expectations
Renowned analysts predict
| Analyst | December target price | Core Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Hayes | $250,000 (end of year) | $80,600 is the bottom; basis trading positions are closed. |
| Tom Lee | $100,000+ | Seasonal recovery, new highs broken |
| Joseph Raczynski | $151,000 | Institutional demand continues |
| BTIG | $100,000 | The seasonal bottom has appeared on November 26. |
Macroeconomic environment support
- Federal Reserve policy shift : 84.7% probability of a rate cut on December 9-10; quantitative tightening to end on December 1.
- Institutional benefits : Executive order on strategic Bitcoin reserves and stablecoin framework bill passed.
- ETF Fund Flows : Net inflow of 618,000 BTC ($122.5 billion) year-to-date; although there was a net outflow in November, overall demand remained strong.
On-chain data analysis
The accumulated signal is obvious
- Exchange reserves decreased : from 2.39 million BTC to 1.83 million BTC in November, a reduction of 560,000 BTC (a 23% decrease).
- Whale Behavior Shift : Net accumulation of 45,000 BTC at the end of November, with an accumulation trend score of 0.8.
- Increase in long-term holders : UTXO accumulation fills supply gap in the $108,000-$116,000 range.
Key Indicators
| index | numerical values | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Net outflow on 7 days | -13,000 BTC | Distribution speed slowed down |
| 30-day net outflow | -140,000 BTC | Overall accumulation trend |
| Number of whale entities | 1,436 (an increase of 44) | Institutional confidence recovers |
| MVRV Z-Score | historical low | Deeply oversold, similar to the bottoms of 2018/2022. |
Historical performance reference
December seasonal performance (2015-2024)
- Average increase : 8.42% (median 1.69%)
- Positive return years : 2015 (+14%), 2016 (+29%), 2017 (+39%), 2020 (+48%), 2023 (+12%)
- "Christmas rally" : Historically, December has a relatively high probability of seeing price increases of 20-22%.
Similar cases of rebound after pullback
- March-July 2021 : Full recovery within 4 months from a -48% pullback.
- Current situation : A 30% pullback from the October high of $126,000, indicating oversold conditions exceeding historical lows.
Social sentiment analysis
Market sentiment shift
- Dominant Narrative : Institutions accumulate below $90,000, Fed policy shift is favorable.
- Influencer opinions : Michael Saylor predicts $150,000 by year-end, while Ash Crypto maintains its target of $130,000-$150,000.
- Technical consensus : The $86,000 support level is crucial; a monthly closing price above $90,000 would confirm a bottom.
Bullish signals dominate
- ETF inflows resume; BlackRock confirms Bitcoin products as top revenue source.
- Whales have shifted from a bearish to a bullish stance, with institutions such as Harvard increasing their ETF holdings.
- Expectations of macro liquidity injections (early 2026) are correlated with historical Bitcoin price rallies.
Rebound Scenario Analysis
Basic scenario (probability 60%)
- Target price : $90,000-$91,000
- Driving factors : Oversold rebound, declining reserves, and the biggest pain point for options.
- Timeframe : Early to mid-December
Optimistic scenario (probability 30%)
- Target price : $95,000-$100,000
- Triggering conditions : Weekly RSI breaks through 50, funding rates are confirmed, and the Federal Reserve's easing measures exceed expectations.
- Catalysts : Large institutional purchases and significant inflows into ETFs
Risk scenario (probability 10%)
- Downside risk : A break below $84,000 support, followed by a retest of $80,000.
- Risk factors : Increased macroeconomic risks, unexpected regulatory developments, and technical breakdowns.
in conclusion
Based on oversold signals from technical analysis, accumulated evidence from on-chain data, optimistic expert predictions, and historical December performance, Bitcoin has a high probability of a strong rebound in December . The key support level of $86,000-$87,000 must hold; a break above $90,000 would open up upside potential to the $95,000-$100,000 range.
We suggest paying attention to : the FOMC meeting on December 9-10, changes in ETF fund flows, and a valid confirmation of a breakout above the $90,000 resistance level.