XPL Price Analysis: Clarifying Launch Rumors and Assessing the Likelihood of Stabilization
Key Clarifications
XPL is not listed on Coinbase's spot trading platform . Coinbase only added Plasma (XPL) to its listing roadmap on November 13, 2025, but official trading has not yet been confirmed and is still pending market maker support and technical readiness. x.com
Price Status Analysis
Market performance
Current price : $0.18019 USD (as of 2025-12-01)
- 24-hour decline: -14.24%
- 30-day decline: -39.59%
- 60-day decline: -81.24%
- All-time low : $0.1735 (reached on December 1, 2025) coingecko.com
- All-time high : $1.69 (September 28, 2025), currently down 89.3% from ATH.
Technical Analysis: Oversold Signals Emerging
| Timeframe | RSI | Technical signals | Key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 36.75 | Neutral to bearish, with room for a rebound. | Support at $0.1712 |
| 4 hours | 30.66 | Oversold , potential rebound | Resistance at $0.1915 |
| Daily chart | 32.00 | Oversold , a sign of stabilization | Key resistance level: $0.2115 |
Key Technology Observations :
- RSI indicators across all timeframes are showing oversold conditions, suggesting that downward momentum may be exhausted.
- The daily MACD histogram has turned positive (+0.0086), suggesting an earlier bullish divergence.
- Prices are below all major moving averages, but have found support near the lower Bollinger Band.
Derivatives Market Data
- Open interest : $190M, down 9.74% in the last 24 hours, indicating the progress of deleveraging.
- 24-hour liquidation : $2.35M (longs $2.29M vs. shorts $60K), indicating that the weak long positions have been shaken out.
- Funding rates : Binance is positive (0.005%), Bybit is negative (-0.015%), indicating neutral sentiment.
Downside risk factors
Upcoming token unlock
Important unlocks on December 25th :
- Unlocked quantity: 88.89 million XPL (approximately 4.52% of the current circulating supply)
- Impact on market capitalization: At the current price, approximately $15.67 million, representing 4.94% of the $355M market capitalization.
- Historical lesson : A similar unlocking event on November 25th triggered an 82% drop in DEX trading volume, and prices subsequently fell 33% in the following week. (fastbull.com )
On-chain data alerts
- Whales are concentrated in a single location : the top 10 addresses control over 81% of the total supply.
- Recent whale selling : Major pre-sale investors transferred 54 million XPL (approximately $63 million) to Binance, exacerbating selling pressure.
- Low network activity : Only 137 daily active users, and on-chain transactions are mainly concentrated on stablecoin transfers rather than real-world applications.
Social sentiment and market expectations
Key opinion leader perspectives
- Altcoin Sherpa : Claims XPL faces "immense selling pressure," down 70% since bottoming out . x.com
- Follis : Called the XPL chart "one of the worst in cryptocurrencies," but speculated it might be nearing its bottom due to the excessive drop . (x.com)
- Reetika : Warning of "bottomless abyss" dynamics; capitulation selling could lead to further declines . x.com
Community sentiment
The overall sentiment is pessimistic, expressing disappointment at the fading hype after launch and the continued pressure to unlock more tokens. Some potential reversal signals, such as the "cup and handle" pattern, have emerged in technical analysis discussions, but these have been overshadowed by capitulationist narratives and comparisons to failed projects.
Stabilization probability assessment
Supporting factors
- Technically oversold : RSI indicators across multiple timeframes show severe oversold conditions; historically, such levels have often been accompanied by rebounds.
- Liquidation and shakeout : The recent large-scale liquidation of long positions may have cleared out weak funds.
- Deleveraging : The decline in open interest indicates the withdrawal of speculative funds, which is conducive to price stability.
Risk factors
- Supply pressure : Unlocking on December 25th will increase circulating supply by 4.52%.
- Weak fundamentals : TVL fell from $8.4 billion to $2.7 billion, indicating insufficient actual application demand.
- Whale selling pressure : Highly concentrated cash holdings pose a risk of large-scale selling.
in conclusion
XPL is currently technically oversold, and a short-term technical rebound is possible, with key support around $0.1736 . However, the upcoming token unlock on December 25th, continued whale selling pressure, and insufficient fundamental demand pose significant downside risks.
Probability of stabilization assessment : Moderate to low. Although technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, structural issues (supply pressure, insufficient demand) may hinder sustained stabilization. Investors should pay attention to whether the $0.1736 support level can be held, and the market's absorption capacity after the unlocking.