Comprehensive Analysis Report on TRADOOR's 70% Plunge

TL;DR

After hitting an all-time high of $6.12 on December 1st, Trader plummeted 77% to $1.47 within 24 hours, wiping out a total market capitalization of $21.2 million. On-chain data shows that a single address controls 75% of the supply, and the top 10 holders account for 89.3%, typical of a highly centralized project. Technical indicators show short-term oversold conditions (1-hour RSI 29.61), but the medium-term trend remains bearish. Recommendation: This is an extremely high-risk investment; it is not recommended for ordinary investors. If considering a rebound, strictly control your position size to ≤2% and set a stop-loss order.

Core Analysis

Details of the crash

After reaching an all-time high of $6.12-$6.26 on December 1, 2025, the TRADOOR token experienced a precipitous drop.

Abnormal trading volume characteristics :

• 24-hour trading volume: $125M-161M USD cryptorank
• Relative market capitalization ratio: 6-8 times (far exceeding the normal 1-2 times)
• Note: Abnormally high turnover rates are usually accompanied by large-scale selling or high-leverage liquidation.

Analysis of the reasons for the sharp drop

1. Risks arising from highly concentrated supply have materialized.

A single address, 0x010e2f2a..., holds 44,826,000 tokens (75% of the total supply), indicating a lack of liquidity in the market. (morality)

2. Fragile liquidity structure

• Total DEX liquidity: <$1M USD (primarily on PancakeSwap V3)
• CEX Liquidity: Binance holds only 3.44% of the circulating supply.
• Insufficient market depth led to large sell orders triggering a price crash.

3. Accumulation of negative events

• The airdrop has been delayed until February 2026 (originally scheduled for earlier) . x.com
• A third-party staking scam occurred, and the project team's establishment of a victim fund triggered a crisis of trust . (x.com)

On-chain analysis

Cryptocurrency concentration (as of 2025-12-02 UTC)

Key risk points :

• The largest address is likely the team's vault or that of an early investor; there is no publicly disclosed lock-up plan.
• The top three non-exchange addresses collectively hold 51.49% of the shares, giving them the ability to manipulate the market.
• The DEX liquidity is insufficient to handle large sell orders (only $680K).

Recent trading patterns (November 2, 2025 to December 2, 2025)

Characteristics of large transfers :

• More than 50 transactions exceeding $100,000 USD each, primarily flowing to CEX bscscan.
• On December 1st (ATH): 43,935 TRADOOR orders flowed into PancakeSwap (approximately $65,000 USD in sell orders).
• There are no signs of large-scale selling at vault addresses, but smaller whales continue to reduce their holdings.

Liquidation cascade effect :

• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: $5.19M USD (long positions $2.29M, short positions $2.90M)
• Short sellers have a slight advantage, but the near 1:1 ratio of long to short positions suggests potential margin calls in both directions.

Social sentiment analysis

Community Response Overview

Sentiment : Mixed bearish (approximately 60% bearish vs. 40% bullish)

Negative factors :

• The delayed airdrop sparked discontent among token holders, despite compensation of 5,000+ $DOOR holders plus a 25% bonus to their points at x.com.
• The staking scam incident damaged the project's credibility; the official Discord platform has launched a new site , x.com, aimed at rebuilding trust.
• Social media lacks high-quality discussions (no in-depth analytical posts with 100+ likes were found).

Positive factors :

• Perps V4 platform upgrade and Pyth oracle integration improve trading efficiency. (x.com)
• Whales are accumulating shares below $1.45 (a low-level accumulation signal) on Kucoin.

Key points of contention

Key evidence supporting the "market maker's profit-taking" claim :

• Twitter has been accused of manipulation (unverified, low engagement) . x.com
• No official response or third-party audit confirmation.
• The price movement conforms to the "pump-dump" pattern, but there is a lack of direct evidence of insider trading.

Technical Analysis

Price movements across multiple timeframes (as of 01:50 UTC, December 2, 2025)

Key support/resistance levels

Support level :

1. $1.44-1.45 : Current price range, liquidation cluster (198K USD long position liquidation risk)
2. $1.33 : The lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart; after breaking through, the price accelerated its downward movement.
3. $0.835 : Lower Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart, in an extremely oversold area.

Resistance level :

1. $1.83 : Short-term resistance; short positions near 390K USD are being liquidated.
2. $2.24 : Daily EMA (12), medium-term moving average resistance.
3. $3.70 : 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line, rebound target.

Derivatives Market Data

Key signal :

• A sharp drop of nearly 50% in OI indicates a contraction in market participation and a decrease in selling pressure.
• Positive funding rates indicate that long positions still need to pay short positions, and excessively leveraged long positions face further liquidation risks.
• The long-short liquidation ratio is 1.27:1.00 (shorts have a slight advantage), and the two-way liquidation has not created unilateral pressure.

in conclusion

risk assessment

Extremely high risk factor (🔴) :

1. Dangerous concentration of holdings : A single address controls 74.71% of the market, posing a potential risk of a price crash.
2. Liquidity Depletion : DEX with only $680K available cannot handle large sell orders.
3. Project Trust Crisis : Airdrop Delay + Staking Scam Strikes in Succession
4. Technical breakdown : The price has fallen below all key moving averages, and the trend is clearly downward.

Potential opportunity factors (🟢) :

1. Short-term oversold : The 1-hour RSI has entered the oversold zone at 29.61, indicating a possibility of a technical rebound.
2. Whale accumulation : Signs of organic accumulation at low levels, potentially brewing a second wave of price increases.
3. Platform upgrade : Perps V4 and oracle optimizations provide fundamental support.
4. OI decline : a sign of selling pressure exhaustion and weakening bearish momentum.

Entry suggestions

Not recommended for the following groups :

• Risk-averse investors
• For those with larger capital (>$10,000 investment)
• Traders who lack stop-loss discipline

Consider the following conditions for small-scale game theory :

• Position size should be strictly controlled at ≤2% of total capital.
• Stop-loss setting: Exit immediately if the price falls below $1.30 (maximum loss -10%).
• Profit target: $1.80-$2.00 (return +25%-40%)
• Entry timing: Wait for the 1-hour RSI to rebound to 35+ and for trading volume to confirm this.

Overall rating : 3.5/10 (Extremely high risk, not suitable for most investors)

Final conclusion : Trader is currently exhibiting a typical "post-harvest consolidation" pattern. While a technical rebound is possible, its high degree of centralization and project trust issues make it a high-risk gamble. It is recommended to wait and see for further confirmation signals, or allocate a very small position for short-term speculation; avoid heavy buy the dips.