$ENA December 2nd Unlock Analysis: Mild Pressure Window, Technically Weak
TL;DR
On December 2nd, ENA unlocked 40.625 million tokens (approximately $9.75 million USD , representing 0.58% of the circulating supply). While the scale was relatively modest, the technical outlook was significantly weak. Although recent actions by whales and Ethena Labs have offset about 20% of the unlocking pressure, the price still faces a 5-8% downside risk to the $0.23 support level. Coupled with negative funding rates and a $12.21 million long liquidation cluster, a short-term pressure window is indeed approaching. The key turning point is a breakout above the $0.243 resistance level.
Core unlock data
Unlocking Scale and Value
| index | numerical values | Percentage/Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Unlock quantity | 40.625M ENA | Authoritative source: Munn/Tokenomist |
| Unlocking Value | $9.76M | Calculated at the current price of $0.24 |
| account for total supply | 0.27% | Total supply of 15 billion fixed |
| account for the distribution supply | 0.58% | 6.986 billion before unlocking, 7.027 billion after unlocking |
| Unlock categories | Ecosystem/Monthly Release | Linear release after 36 months following a 1-year lock-up period |
Data authority clarification : There are conflicting reports in the market regarding release amounts of 94.19M and 212.5M. After cross-validation, we used on-chain tracking data from Munn (40.625M represents the single-day release on December 2nd, and 212.5M represents the periodic summary from December 2nd to 5th). tokenomist.ai dropstab.com
On-chain holder analysis
Top 10 holders concentration (as of December 2)
| Ranking | Address type | Open interest | Proportion of circulation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Personal wallet | 852M ENA | 10.66% |
| 2 | Personal wallet | 685M ENA | 8.56% |
| 3 | Personal wallet | 657M ENA | 8.21% |
| 5 | sENA Pledge Contract | 511M ENA | 6.38% |
| 8-9 | Binance Wallet (Total) | 469M ENA | 5.86% |
| Top 10 Total | Multiple types | ~4.4B ENA | ~55% |
Concentration Risk : The top 10 investors control 55% of the circulating supply, with an estimated Gini coefficient of 0.75+. This highly concentrated structure increases the risk of coordinated sell-offs. (tokenomist.ai)
Large transfers in the past 7 days (November 25 - December 2)
Accumulated signals :
- Ethena Labs officially announced : 25M ENA (~$7.05M) withdrawn from Binance/Bybit, increasing holdings to 355M+.
- Whale account : Used 13.11M USDC to buy 17.76M ENA (~$5.1M), increasing holdings to 39.88M.
Distribute signals :
- Arthur Hayes' associated address : Sold approximately $5M ENA to the exchange.
- Unlock and release : 40.625M ENA transferred from the Ecosystem Release Contract
Net effect : Accumulation dominates, with whale buying (42.76M ENA) offsetting approximately 20% of the unlocking pressure , but Hayes selling and negative net spot flows reflect ongoing exit actions. ambcrypto.com kucoin.com
Technical Analysis and Derivatives Market
Technical indicators snapshot (as of 02:00 UTC, December 2)
| index | 1 hour | 4 hours | 1st | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $0.2391 | $0.2391 | $0.2391 | - |
| RSI(14) | 37.1 (Neutral) | 30.4 (Oversold) | 34.2 (Oversold) | A short-term rebound is possible. |
| MACD histogram | +0.0013 | -0.0040 | +0.0046 | Hybrid kinetic energy |
| Price vs EMA12 | Below $0.241 | Below $0.252 | Below $0.264 | Bearish across the board |
| ADX(14) | 38.4 (Strong Trend) | 26.4 (Moderate) | 34.4 (Strong Trend) | Confirming the downward trend |
| Bollinger Bands Position | Near the lower rail at $0.237 | Near the lower rail at $0.226 | Near the lower rail at $0.228 | Fluctuation contraction |
Key support/resistance :
- Immediate support levels : $0.236 (1h Bollinger Band lower band) → $0.228 (4h/1d lower band + liquidation cluster) → $0.215 (major long liquidation zone)
- Immediate resistance levels : $0.243 (1h Bollinger Band upper line) → $0.250 (Supertrend + EMA crossover) → $0.265 (4h Bollinger Band middle line)
Derivatives Market Data
| index | numerical values | 24-hour changes | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total open interest | $328.23M | -1.08% | The decline in OI reflects position closing. |
| Funding fees (Binance) | -0.0126% (8h) | negative value | Short sellers paying long positions, potential bullish signal |
| Funding rates (Bybit) | -0.0059% (8h) | negative value | The market is bearish but there are expectations of a reversal. |
| 24-hour settlement | $1.18M | 93% of long positions | Multi-head extrusion pressure concentration |
Liquidation Risk Map
Downward clearing cluster (long risk):
- $0.23 : $9.81M Long Position Liquidation
- $0.228 : $0.73M cumulative
- $0.215 : The starting point for liquidation of a cumulative $12.21M (high cascading risk)
Upstream clearing cluster (short risk):
- $0.245 : $2.03M short liquidation
- $0.250 : $1.19M cumulative
- $0.268 : Total $130.69M
Risk Assessment : A break below $0.23 would trigger a liquidation of nearly $10 million in long positions, potentially leading to a chain reaction down to $0.215 (a total of $12 million+), which, combined with the selling pressure from unlocking, would constitute a 5-8% downside risk.
Social sentiment and market expectations
Main narrative (December 1-2)
Core theme :
- Unlocking was framed as a structural necessity within a multi-year release plan , rather than a design flaw.
- The discussion focused on "liquidity stress testing," placed within the context of overall supply expansion in Q4.
- The narrative will unlock the possibility of being placed alongside projects like SUI and EIGEN, diluting the focus on a single entity.
Influencer perspectives :
- The cautious approach emphasizes supply-side risks; if demand cannot absorb the volatility, it will amplify the volatility .
- Comparative perspective : Analogous to the expiration of traditional financial lock-up periods, this typically leads to short-term repricing. (x.com)
- Optimists : Unlocking successful digestion may boost ecosystem confidence and is seen as a growth milestone . (x.com)
Emotional polarity and discussion volume
| Dimension | Evaluate | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Overall polarity | Mixed and cautious | Concerns about supply pressure coexist with optimism regarding policy releases. |
| Discussion volume | Low | High-quality mentions are rare within 24-48 hours; most are factual updates. |
| Community Response | dull | Lack of strong emotional response, and no widespread debate. |
Forecasting Missing : No clear, falsifiable price forecasts were found; the discussion focuses on the "absorption capacity" assumption scenario. x.com
Comprehensive assessment of pressure window
Short-term risk matrix (next 24-72 hours)
| Risk factors | Weight | stress level | Supporting factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unlock selling pressure | middle | 0.58% increase in supply | The scale was moderate, and the whales' accumulation offset 20%. |
| Technical aspects | high | Price below all moving averages, ADX in strong downward trend | RSI oversold, daily MACD histogram |
| Liquidation risk | high | $0.23 $9.81M multi-head cluster | Negative funding rates suggest a reversal expectation |
| Holder behavior | middle | Hayes sells $5 million, resulting in negative net cash flow. | Labs+ whales have accumulated 42.76M ENA. |
| Market sentiment | Low | Low discussion volume, cautious tone | No panic selling narrative |
Price impact forecast
Baseline scenario (probability 60-70%):
- Downside target : $0.228-$0.23 (-4.5% to -3.5%)
- Triggering condition : A surge in sell orders and increased trading volume occurs 6-12 hours after unlocking.
- Stop-loss recommendation : Long positions should avoid setting stop-loss orders near the $0.23 liquidation cluster to prevent being stopped out.
Stressful scenarios (probability 25-30%):
- Further decline : $0.215 (-10%)
- Triggering conditions : A break below the $0.23 support level triggers a chain reaction of liquidation, coupled with whale-driven sell-offs.
- Sustainability : Monthly releases continue until 2027, with approximately 172 million NA per month creating structural pressure.
Rebound scenario (probability 10-15%):
- Upward breakout : $0.243 resistance, target $0.250
- Triggering conditions : Unlocking is quickly absorbed, RSI oversold rebound + negative funding rate reversal.
- Confirmation signal : Daily closing price stabilizes above $0.243, OBV positive divergence continues.
in conclusion
The pressure window is indeed approaching , but the pressure level is mild to moderate .
Sources of stress :
- The technical outlook is significantly weak (all indicators are below the moving average, and the ADX is trending downwards).
- The $12.21M long liquidation cluster below poses a cascading risk.
- The continued monthly release of supply will create long-term supply pressure (until April 2027).
Mitigating factors :
- The unlocking scale is only 0.58% of the circulating supply, which is relatively mild.
- The whale and official accumulation of 42.76M ENA offset approximately 20% of the pressure.
- Negative funding rates and oversold RSI suggest a possible short-term rebound.
- The agreement has strong fundamentals (TVL $10.2 billion, weekly revenue $53 million).
Operation suggestions :
- Bulls : Wait for confirmation of stabilization in the $0.228-$0.23 range, with a stop-loss order placed below $0.215.
- Short position : Short in the $0.243-$0.250 range, with a stop loss at $0.255.
- Watch : If $0.243 is effectively broken and the OI (Online Indicator) rebounds, it will turn into a bullish signal.
Key monitoring points :
- Exchange net inflow/outflow data 6-12 hours after unlocking
- Change in trading volume during the $0.23 support test
- Market sentiment ahead of the next unlock (December 5th, 171.88 M ENA)