Short BOB: Technical Adjustment Opportunity Before Bithumb's Listing
TL;DR
BOB is currently in an extremely overbought state , and technical indicators suggest a 50-60% probability of a short-term pullback. However, the Bithumb listing has not yet occurred (planned listing at 06:00 UTC on December 3rd), and the listing catalyst could bring further gains. Short opportunities exist but caution is advised: it is recommended to wait for the RSI to fall below 70 and observe the price reaction after listing before entering the market , avoiding premature entry before the catalyst.
Core Analysis
Launch time and price performance
- Bithumb launch time : 2025-12-03 06:00 UTC (Not yet, approximately 2 hours from now)
- Current price : $0.01798 (as of 03:45 UTC on 2025-12-03)
- 24-hour increase : +61-62%, not the "continuous surge of 50%" mentioned by users.
- 7-day increase : +7%
- 30-day decline : -28% (rebound from the low)
Important Note : The listing event has not yet occurred. The current price increase is mainly a reaction to expectations of the listing. The actual listing may bring further volatility after 06:00 UTC. coinmarketcap.com
Technical Analysis: Extremely Overbought Signal
| index | 1 hour | 4 hours | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 85.28 | 71.69 | 🔴 Severe overbuying |
| Price vs. Bollinger Band Upper Rail | $0.0175 > $0.0150 | $0.0175 > $0.0153 | 🔴 Overstretching |
| MACD | 0.000763 (Bull) | -0.000419 (bullish crossover) | 🟡 Kinetic energy decreases |
| EMA(12) vs EMA(26) | Above | Below | 🟡 Trend divergence |
Technical conclusion :
- The 1-hour RSI is at 85.28, well above the 70 threshold, the highest level since November 2024, indicating a risk of extreme buying exhaustion.
- A price breakout above the upper Bollinger Band indicates short-term overextending and a high probability of mean reversion.
- Although the MACD remains bullish, the histogram is starting to narrow, indicating a clear weakening of momentum.
Derivatives Market Analysis
| Exchange | Open interest | 24-hour changes | Funding rates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $4.97M | +203.12% | -1.07% |
| Bitget | $1.29M | +532.21% | -1.20% |
| Gate | $0.68M | +821.85% | -1.11% |
| total | $7.24M | +235.51% | negative value |
Derivatives signals :
- The 235% surge in open interest indicates a large increase in speculative positions, raising volatility risk.
- Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying long positions, indicating a still bullish market structure that is unfavorable for short.
- 24-hour liquidation data : Short positions liquidated $122k vs. long positions $28k, indicating multiple previous short liquidations (short-term squeeze risk).
Distribution of liquidation risks :
- Downside long positions have been liquidated, accumulating $608k (down to the $0.0134 range).
- The short position liquidation exposure is only $108k (up to the $0.0196 range).
- Asymmetric risk : The chain reaction of liquidations triggered by a decline could be more severe.
Social sentiment analysis
- Launch announcement reaction : Bithumb officially announced the launch at 02:45 UTC, but the interaction was extremely low.
- KOL Discussion : As of 03:47 UTC, no high-quality KOL discussions regarding this launch event have been found.
- Emotional polarity : Neutral to indifferent , lacking the typical pre-launch FOMO atmosphere.
- Risk warning : Low attention may mean a lack of sustained buying support after launch, but it also reduces the risk of a pump-and-dump scenario.
An anomaly : The launch of the product on South Korea's second-largest exchange generated unusually low social media buzz, contrasting sharply with the 61% price increase. x.com
On-chain data analysis
- TVL : $86.74M (a considerable amount at the protocol level)
- Concentration of holdings : The top 10 addresses control 93.54% of the circulating supply.
- Number 1 address: 27.01%
- Top 5 addresses: 83.51%
- Major holders : Exchange addresses such as Coinbase hot wallet (20.05%) and Bitvavo hot wallet (11.22%) account for a high proportion.
On-chain risks : The extremely high concentration of holdings means that there is a significant risk of selling pressure from large holders. Once the token is launched, profit-taking may trigger a rapid decline.
Short strategy recommendations
Scenario 1: Aggressive short(not recommended)
Entry requirements :
- Price : $0.0175 (current price)
- Stop loss : $0.0185 (if the recent high is broken)
- Target : $0.0150 (support at the upper Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart)
- Risk-reward ratio : 2.50:1
- Success rate : 50-60% (Technical support, but high risk associated with catalysts)
Risk factors :
- The catalyst for Bithumb's listing has not yet materialized, and the price may continue to rise to $0.019+.
- Negative funding rates indicate that the market remains bullish.
- A surge in open interest could trigger a further short squeeze.
Scenario 2: Conservative Short(Recommended)
Waiting for signal :
- Post-launch observation : Wait for Bithumb to launch at 06:00 UTC and observe the price reaction for 1-2 hours.
- Technical confirmation :
- RSI fell from 85+ to below 70
- The price has fallen below $0.0169 (4-hour Bollinger Band middle line).
- MACD histogram turns negative
- Sentiment shift : Profit-taking discussions emerge on social media.
Entry requirements :
- Price : $0.0165-0.0169 (near the middle Bollinger Band)
- Stop loss : $0.0180 (retesting the high)
- Target 1 : $0.0150 (Upper Bollinger Band support)
- Target 2 : $0.0145 (SMA200 support)
- Risk-reward ratio : Approximately 3:1
- Success rate : 65-75% (subject to technical adjustments after catalyst activation)
Short channel restrictions
Exchanges where short is possible :
- ✅ Binance : BOB/USDT Perpetual Contract (Launch on 2025-11-21)
Short is not supported .
- ❌ Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid: No BOB products available.
- ❌ Bithumb: Spot trading only (after listing at 06:00 UTC)
Liquidity risk : Currently, only Binance offers perpetual contracts, and this single channel may lead to slippage and insufficient market depth issues.
in conclusion
Technical Analysis : The BOB is showing a textbook overbought condition (RSI 85+, price above the Bollinger Bands), indicating a high probability of a short-term correction and theoretically presenting short opportunities.
Catalyst Risk : The Bithumb listing event has not yet occurred (UTC 06:00). After listing, there may be "profit-taking" selling pressure, or the price may continue to rise due to buying interest in the Korean won. The current lukewarm social media response reduces FOMO risk, but it also means a lack of clear directional guidance.
On-chain risks : 93.54% of the tokens are concentrated in the top 10 addresses, and the risk of large holders taking profits cannot be ignored.
Final recommendation :
- 🔴 It is not recommended to short sell short ; wait for the catalyst to materialize upon the listing.
- 🟡Suggested observation strategy : Observe for 1-2 hours after 06:00 UTC. If the price rises and falls back and breaks below $0.0169, establish a short position near the Bollinger Band middle line.
- ⚠️Position Control : Even when entering a trade, it is recommended to use a small position (no more than 10% of the total position) and set a strict stop-loss of $0.018.
- 📊Continuous monitoring : Positive funding rates, RSI falling below 50, and declining open interest are strong bearish signals.
Risk Warning : Short highly volatile, small-cap tokens carries extremely high risk. Irrational price surges have frequently occurred on Korean exchanges since their listing history, so strict risk control is essential.