Polymarket US version launched: Predicting market growth potential analysis

TL;DR

Polymarket officially launched its iOS app to US waiting list users on December 3, 2025, focusing on the sports betting market. This marks its first compliant return to the US market since being banned by the CFTC in 2022. Although initial on-chain data showed a decline in average daily transaction volume and active users compared to November (-8.61% and -19.99% respectively), a 13.15% increase in TVL, over 200,000 waiting list users, and a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (valuing the company at $9 billion) indicate the platform's strong growth potential. The prediction market sector is reaching a critical turning point towards compliance and mainstreaming, with the entry into sports betting, partnerships with traditional financial institutions, and the expansion roadmap of "everything can be predicted" opening up new growth opportunities for the industry.

Core Development Dynamics

US version launch details

Release timeline :

• July 9, 2025 : Acquired CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) status through the acquisition of QCX exchange.
• November 25, 2025 : The CFTC amended its designated order to allow the mediated U.S. transactions, enhance surveillance, and improve Part 16 reporting.
• December 3, 2025 : Official rollout of the iOS app to users on the waiting list begins in batches.
• December 4, 2025 : Launch global MetaMask wallet integration.

Core features :

• Initially focused on the real-time, real-money sports betting market, supporting in-game trading and instant transactions.
• Compared to traditional betting platforms: lower spreads, lower fees, no house advantage, no betting limits, and higher payouts.
• The iOS app has received a 4.8/5 star rating on the Apple App Store (29,000 reviews).
• The US version requires phone number verification; the global version supports Coinbase wallet integration.

Regulatory compliance :

• Operating as QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, it is a DCM regulated by the CFTC.
• Compliant with U.S. Commodity Exchange Act and operating legally in all 50 states.
• Background: In 2022, the company was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC and forced to withdraw from the US market for failing to register event contracts.

Market performance and user adoption

User growth :

• The waiting list has more than 200,000 users (as of December 3, 2025).
• After its release, the iOS app briefly topped the US App Store's free sports app chart, then maintained its third position, surpassing FanDuel, DraftKings, and ESPN.
• The global user base exceeded 30 million before the US relaunch.

Transaction volume comparison :

Key findings :

• Global trading volume reached $3.7 billion in November, a 22% increase from October, bringing the cumulative trading volume over the past year to $18.5 billion.
• Following its US launch from December 3-5, on-chain daily activity declined (transaction volume -19.40%, users -33.60% vs. November average), potentially reflecting initial market adjustments or user wait-and-see attitudes.
• TVL increased from an average of $251 million in November to an average of $284 million from December 1-5 (+13.15%), indicating continued liquidity growth.
• Protocol revenue data shows $0 (DeFiLlama data), while historical fees are approximately $62,000, indicating that the fee structure needs optimization.

Analysis of Predicting New Market Growth Points

Strategic positioning and competitive landscape

Market entry strategy : Polymarket chose to enter the US market through sports betting , a strategy with multiple advantages:

1. Sports betting has been widely legalized in the United States and enjoys high user acceptance.
2. Its differentiated advantages compared to traditional betting platforms (no house advantage, higher payouts) are highly attractive.
3. It can directly compete with traditional giants DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as emerging rival Kalshi (valued at $11 billion).

Competitive comparison :

• Polymarket : November trading volume of $3.7 billion, valuation of $9 billion (pre-money), global platform, blockchain native.
• Kalshi : November trading volume of $5.8 billion (+32% MoM), valuation of $11 billion, a US compliance pioneer.
• Traditional sports betting : Market leaders include DraftKings and FanDuel, but they lack the advantages of decentralization and low fees.

Growth drivers

1. Regulatory compliance breakthrough

• The CFTC's approval of a federal compliance path for prediction markets could influence state regulatory policies.
• Intermediation of transaction structures and enhanced monitoring and reporting mechanisms improve market transparency and consumer protection.

2. Capital and Strategic Cooperation

• Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the NYSE) invests $2 billion in a strategic deal , valuing the company at $9 billion in pre-money terms.
• The data partnership with ICE can support event data distribution and tokenization initiatives.
• Expanding the ecosystem through integration with PrizePicks and collaboration with DraftKings as a clearinghouse

3. Product Expansion Roadmap Planned for phased rollout:

• Sports event contract (current phase)
• Segmenting the betting market
• Geopolitics, elections, news events
• Markets where "everything is predictable," including technology and culture.
• Enhanced Oracle (MOOV2) enables faster settlement.
• X/Twitter data integration provides market insights.

4. Mainstream infrastructure

• MetaMask mobile app integration (launching December 4th) lowers the barrier to cryptocurrency use.
• Direct in-wallet prediction functionality simplifies the user experience.
• A high iOS app rating (4.8/5) and chart ranking validate a product's market fit.

Risk Factors and Challenges

Regulatory uncertainty :

• Despite receiving approval from the federal CFTC, state-level regulatory challenges may still be present.
• Political affiliations (such as Trump Jr. joining the advisory council) raise questions about regulatory influence.
• Consumer protection and market integrity issues at the intersection of sports and political markets

Market manipulation risk :

• Crypto platforms with low barriers to entry may become breeding grounds for insider trading.
• Case studies show that traders can profit by using Google search results to gain prior knowledge.
• Lack of strict oversight mechanisms in traditional financial markets

Competitive pressure :

• Kalshi has established a first-mover advantage in the US compliant prediction market (November trading volume: $5.8 billion vs. Polymarket: $3.7 billion).
• The brand recognition and user base advantages of traditional sports betting giants
• Continuous innovation and differentiation are needed to maintain competitiveness.

Initial adoption challenges :

• On-chain data from December 3-5 showed a decrease in activity, which may reflect:
  • Friction during the transition of US users from VPN access to compliant applications
  • The temporary slowdown caused by the phased release of the waiting list
  • Market adaptation period to the new regulatory environment

Growth potential assessment

Market size opportunity

US sports betting market :

• More than 30 states in the United States have legalized sports betting.
• The traditional gambling market is worth tens of billions of dollars, and Polymarket's low-fee, unlimited betting model can capture a considerable share.

Predicting overall market potential :

• The 2025 election cycle validated the mainstream acceptance of prediction markets.
• The concept that "everything is predictable" can expand the market to infinite scenarios beyond sports.
• Globalization and 24/7 market advantages enabled by blockchain technology

Valuation and Investment Signals

Current valuation :

• Pre-money was valued at $9 billion, and its potential valuation after ICE's investment could reach $15 billion.
• Compared to competitor Kalshi's $11 billion valuation, there is room for growth.

Investor quality :

• Intercontinental Exchange's strategic investment (by a global financial infrastructure giant) not only provides funding, but also brings:
  • Traditional financial market data and technical support
  • Compliance and regulatory relationship network
  • Endorsement effect of mainstream financial institutions

Industry catalysts

Predicting market sector trends :

1. The wave of compliance : The CFTC's regulatory framework for event contracts is gradually becoming clearer.
2. Traditional institutions entering the market : Investment signals from traditional financial giants such as the NYSE's parent company.
3. Mature technological infrastructure : Blockchain, stablecoins, and wallet integration lower the barrier to entry.
4. Increased social acceptance : The 2024-2025 election cycle validates the practicality and accuracy of the forecasting market.

in conclusion

The launch of Polymarket's US version signifies a new phase for the prediction market, characterized by compliance, mainstream adoption, and scaling . Although initial on-chain data showed activity levels were adjusted, a waiting list of over 200,000, a $2 billion strategic investment from ICE, a CFTC compliance framework, and an expansion roadmap of "predictable everything" collectively form a strong foundation for growth.

Focus on New Growth Drivers :

1. Sports betting entry : Leveraging differentiated advantages (low fees, unlimited bets) to challenge traditional giants and tap into a multi-billion dollar market.
2. Traditional financial cooperation : Institutional partners such as ICE bring data, technology, and endorsement, accelerating mainstream adoption.
3. Well-developed infrastructure : MetaMask integration, iOS applications, etc., lower the barrier to entry and expand the user base.
4. Scenario expansion : From sports to elections, geopolitics, news, culture, and other comprehensive prediction markets.

Key risks require continued monitoring: state-level regulatory challenges, prevention of market manipulation, competitor pressure, and the speed of user adoption. Overall, the launch of Polymarket's US version has opened up new growth opportunities for the prediction market sector, and its success will depend on the combined effectiveness of regulatory adaptation, product iteration, and market education.