ETH Rebound Target Analysis
TL;DR
ETH is currently priced at $3,216, with short-term targets of $3,255-$3,300, a medium-term bullish target of $5,000, and a long-term target of $7,000-$9,000. Technically, the 1-hour and 4-hour RSIs are overbought, but the daily chart is neutral. The MACD is bullish across multiple timeframes, and short-selling in the derivatives market, with liquidations reaching $115.56 million, supports further upside. The Fusaka upgrade catalyst and institutional accumulation (a net outflow of 250,000 ETH over 30 days) provide fundamental support, but Layer 2 value diversion and a 12.9% drop in TVL pose risks.
Core Technology Analysis
Multi-period technical indicators
Current price : $3,216.56 (as of 2025-12-04 UTC)
| Time period | RSI(14) | MACD status | Bollinger Bands Position | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 83.42 | Bullish crossover (55.34/49.75) | Touched the upper rail (3216.70) | Overbought, risk of pullback |
| 4 hours | 74.51 | Strong bullish outlook (58.59/22.67) | Approaching the upper rail (3243.52) | Support continued rise |
| 1st | 53.01 | Bullish divergence (-94.79/-153.98) | Above the upper rail (3255.50) | Neutral to more |
| 1 week | 45.86 | Bearish (9.68/207.29) | Below the middle band (3958.22) | Long-term stress |
Moving averages : The 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily EMA(12) are all above the EMA(26), confirming a short-to-medium-term bullish trend. The price has broken above the 1-hour and 4-hour SMA(50) but remains below the daily SMA(50) at $3,423.
Key support and resistance levels
| Price range | type | in accordance with | strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,900 | Main support | Rebound starting point + weekly lower trendline $2,832 | powerful |
| $3,100-$3,115 | Secondary support | 1-hour lower boundary + long position liquidation zone $876M | middle |
| $3,255 | Instantaneous resistance | Daily upper rail + short-term liquidation starting point | middle |
| $3,300 | Key resistance | The biggest pain point of options trading + areas with high concentration of liquidations | powerful |
| $3,400-$3,500 | target area | Upward channel extension + Analyst target | Pending confirmation |
Derivatives Market Signals
Futures open interest : Total $39.01 billion, up 8.13% in 24 hours, indicating a surge in participation.
Options Market : Total open interest is $11.39 billion, up 1.57% in the last 24 hours. Deribit accounts for 70% of the market ($7.97 billion). The biggest hurdle is $2,950 for the December 4th expiry date and $3,000 for the December 5th expiry date.
Liquidation data : Total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours was $137.66M, with short liquidation at $115.56M vs. long liquidation at $22.10M, indicating a significant short squeeze effect. The liquidation risk chart shows that the cumulative short exposure above $3,318 is $364M, while the cumulative long exposure below $3,093 is $876M, constituting asymmetric upward momentum.
Funding rates : Binance pays 0.0066% to long positions and 0 to short positions, a positive rate indicating long sentiment in the market.
Fundamental catalysts
Fusaka upgrade effect
Upgrade details : Activated on December 3, 2025, increasing the block gas limit and introducing PeerDAS (Data Availability Sampling) to reduce Layer 2 and validator costs. Improves L2 settlement efficiency through partial blob verification.
Historical comparison : Similar to the 50% increase following the Pectra upgrade in May 2025, analysts expect a short-term target of $5,000.
Institutional Trends
BitMine Immersion Technologies continues to accumulate ETH to its target of 5% of the total supply, backed by institutions including ARK Invest and Pantera. In early 2025, BlackRock and Apollo Global Management are advancing their tokenization partnership.
Analyst target price
| source | Short-term goals | Medium-term goals | Long-term goals | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fusaka upgrade expected | $5,000 | - | - | short term |
| Tom Lee | $2,500 (rebound) | $7,000-$9,000 | - | Early 2026 |
| Institutional demand forecast | - | $7,000+ | $10,000+ | 2026 / Within 2 years |
On-chain data analysis
Exchange liquidity trends
30-day net outflow : Cumulative net outflow of approximately 250,000 ETH (18-day net outflow), with a maximum single-day outflow of -187,306 ETH (November 28, 2025). The average daily inflow is 1.1 million ETH, and the average daily outflow is 1.15 million ETH, indicating continuous accumulation.
Reserve changes : From 17.11 million ETH on November 4, 2025 to 16.56 million ETH on December 3, a decrease of 3.1% (USD value decreased from $61.58 billion to $49.69 billion), a signal of tightening supply.
Position distribution
| Holder type | ETH amount | percentage | feature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Staking Contract | 73,162,934 | 60.62% | Validator Lock |
| Wrapped Ether | 2,676,953 | 2.22% | DeFi interoperability |
| Binance | 1,996,008 | 1.65% | Exchange Reserves |
| Robinhood | 1,177,794 | 0.98% | Retail Investor Platform |
| Top 10 addresses | ~68% | - | Highly concentrated |
Total circulating supply : 120,695,554 ETH, with approximately 1.2 million addresses holding ≥1 ETH.
Network activity
Active addresses increased from 385,266 on November 23 to 629,443 on December 3, averaging 500,000 over 30 days, indicating increased participation.
Trading volume : 60 million ETH (approximately $180 billion) over 30 days, with a daily average of 2 million ETH and a peak of 4,737,599 ETH (November 23).
Protocol usage metrics
TVL Changes : Ethereum Chain TVL dropped 12.9% from $80.70B on November 4th to $70.29B on December 4th. The lowest point was $65.07B (November 23rd), after which it recovered to $70.82B (December 3rd).
Staking agreements : Lido TVL decreased from $30.89B to $27.20B (-11.8%), and Rocket Pool decreased from $2.26B to $1.89B (-16.0%).
Risk signal : TVL contraction indicates declining DeFi usage, which may limit the sustainability of the rebound.
Social sentiment analysis
Overall mood
Bullish sentiment prevails, driven by expectations of technological recovery and the Fusaka upgrade. The community focuses on long-term structural improvements, viewing ETH as relatively undervalued in terms of ecosystem growth. Concerns about Layer 2 value diversion exist but are offset by arguments for network dominance.
KOL Opinions
| Analyst | position | Core arguments |
|---|---|---|
| @lukebelmar | Strongly bullish | Compared to 2021, with better infrastructure and institutional adoption, undervaluation will outperform BTC. |
| @MerlijnTrader | bullish | The ETH/BTC ratio is showing a bullish reversal pattern, similar to the start of a historical altcoin season. |
| @3orovik | Strongly bullish | Fusaka represents a transformative upgrade in cost/speed, with a significant price increase expected. |
| @astronomer_zero | bullish | Historical sweep patterns and liquidity dynamics support higher goals |
| @aleabitoreddit | bearish | Layer 2 captures activity but does not return value to mainnet validators. |
Key topics
Upgrade Momentum : Fusaka improves scalability and reduces fees, positioning itself to improve DeFi and dApp performance with ETH.
Technical Recovery : The narrative of recovering support levels suggests that the upward trend will continue if the structure is maintained, combined with hopes for a seasonal rebound.
vs BTC performance : ETH led the Altcoin rotation, signaling a reversal of BTC's dominance and suggesting a shift towards Ethereum-centric growth.
Institutional inflows : Net inflows into ETH products are interpreted as an improvement in sentiment and a confirmation of its leading position in the rebound.
in conclusion
Short-term target (1-2 weeks) : $3,255-$3,300 range, based on the upper Bollinger Band resistance on the daily chart and the biggest pain point for options. A break above $3,255 has a 70% probability of reaching $3,300, supported by the $364M short-selling concentration zone. The risk of a pullback lies in the $3,100-$3,115 support zone.
Medium-term target (1-3 months) : $5,000 level, based on the Fusaka upgrade catalyst and historical post-upgrade gains (referencing the 50% gain after the Pectra upgrade). The condition is a break above $3,300 and maintaining a daily RSI above 60.
Long-term target (2026) : $7,000-$9,000 range, driven by institutional demand and tokenization trends. A more aggressive forecast of $10,000+ would require a 2-year timeframe.
Risk factors : (1) The continued decline of TVL by 12.9% indicates a contraction in protocol usage; (2) Layer 2 value diversion may limit the appreciation of mainnet tokens; (3) Weekly technical indicators still show long-term bearish pressure; (4) A staking concentration of 60% brings dynamic risks to validators.
Trading Recommendations : A conservative strategy suggests entering on a pullback to $3,200-$3,220, with an initial target of $3,255 and a secondary target of $3,300-$3,350. A stop-loss should be placed at $3,100, resulting in a risk-reward ratio of 1.27. An aggressive strategy could consider chasing the price higher, but caution is advised given the 1-hour RSI is at 83.42, indicating an overbought condition and potential pullback. Net outflows of 250,000 ETH and short liquidation at $115.56 million support a slightly bullish bias, but risk management should limit stop-loss to no more than 1% of capital.