AERO Market Dynamics Analysis: 801K Repurchase Lock-up and Exchange Listing Status
TL;DR
Robinhood Listing Status : As of December 4, 2025, there is no evidence that AERO is listed on Robinhood . AERO is currently traded on 9 exchanges, including Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit, but Robinhood is not among them. 801K Buyback Lock : The Aerodrome Public Goods Fund (PGF) completed the purchase and maximum lock of 801,000 AERO on December 3, bringing the cumulative buyback to over 150 million AERO, reducing the circulating supply by 0.07%. This, combined with the Slipstream liquidity rewards (up to 2,091% APR), strengthens the protocol's value capture mechanism.
Core Analysis
Robinhood listing status check
Official listing confirmed :
Current exchange coverage : AERO is listed on 9 exchanges with a total of 13 trading pairs, including:
- Spot trading : Coinbase (AERO/USD, listed on 2024-02-06), Binance Alpha (AERO/USDC, listed on 2025-04-17), Upbit (AERO/KRW, listed on 2025-08-22)
- Perpetual contracts : Binance (AERO/USDT, 2024-12-18), Hyperliquid (AERO/USD, 2025-11-11), OKX (AERO/USDT, 2025-07-03)
Robinhood's current situation :
- No evidence was found that AERO was engaging in spot or perpetual trading on Robinhood.
- Robinhood's cryptocurrency product line includes major cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, but there are no announcements related to AERO.
- In June 2025, Robinhood expanded to include EU perpetual futures and tokenized stocks, but did not include AERO.
Market data (as of December 4, 2025):
- Price : $0.70 USD
- Market capitalization : $638 million
- 24-hour trading volume : $33.23 million
- Contract address : 0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 (Base chain)
Detailed Explanation of 801K Buyback Lock-up Event
Repurchase execution details :
| Dimension | data |
|---|---|
| Single repurchase volume | 801,000 AERO |
| Execution time | 2025-12-03 |
| Implementing entity | Aerodrome Public Goods Fund (PGF) |
| Cumulative repurchase | Over 150 million AEROs (via PGF, Flight School, Relay) |
| Buyback mechanism | Programmatic market perception model |
| Locking method | Maximum lock (max-lock) |
Supply impact analysis :
- Reduced circulating supply : 801,000 coins / 1.179 billion coins in circulation = 0.07% reduction
- Total Locked : Based on a total supply of 1.793 billion AERO minus a circulating supply of 1.179 billion AERO, the estimated total locked is approximately 614 million AERO (34.3% of the total supply).
- PGF Holdings : 105 million AERO tokens automatically locked (5.9% of total supply)
Impact of token economics :
- Supply structure optimization : 66% of total supply allocated to locked or attribution categories (airdrops, public goods, teams, grants).
- Increased scarcity : Over 150 million veAERO tokens have been repurchased to enhance voting power concentration.
- Inflation hedging : With an annualized inflation rate of approximately 8%, the repurchase mechanism helps to mitigate and release pressure.
- Price support : Following the 609K repurchase announcement on November 24, the price immediately rebounded 1.47% to $0.707.
On-chain holder dynamics
Top holder distribution :
| entity | Holding | Total supply share | state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Goods Fund (PGF) | 105 million AERO | 5.9% | Maximum Lock |
| Development Team/Foundation | 169 million AERO | 9.4% | Partial Lock |
| Airdrop Pool (veVELO Locker) | 200 million AERO | 11.2% | Locked for up to 4 years |
| Voting Incentive Pool | 40 million AERO | 2.2% | TGE unlock |
| Agreement grant | 50 million AERO | 2.8% | locking |
| Rebase mechanism | 105 million AERO | 5.9% | veAERO rewards |
| Gauge release (ongoing) | 1.266 billion AERO | 70.6% | LP distribution |
Liquidity reward catalyst :
Slipstream liquidity mining, launched in conjunction with the buyback program (December 2, 2025), offers extremely high APR incentives:
| pond | APR | effect |
|---|---|---|
| WETH-cbETH | 2,091% | Attracting funds from the ETH ecosystem |
| USDC-ZORA | 937% | Stablecoin liquidity deepening |
| USDC-WETH | 388% | Core trading pair support |
| wstETH-AERO | 358% | Protocol Token Lock-up Incentives |
Technical Analysis
Price movements across multiple timeframes (as of December 4, 2025, UTC)
Current price : $0.6953 (Bybit)
| Time period | Trend signals | Key position |
|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | Short-term upside (price > EMA12 $0.6910, > EMA26 $0.6826) | Upper resistance level: $0.7069 |
| 4 hours | Medium-term bullish (Price > EMA12 $0.6743, > EMA26 $0.6651) | Upper resistance level: $0.7258 |
| Daily chart | Stabilizing within a long-term downtrend (Price <EMA26 $0.7537, <SMA50 $0.8380, <SMA200 $0.9124) | Support level: $0.5825 |
Technical Indicator Matrix
Momentum Indicator :
| index | 1 hour | 4 hours | Daily chart | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 57.91 | 62.38 | 43.96 | Neutral to mildly bullish, no overbought or oversold conditions. |
| MACD | +0.00037 | +0.00747 | +0.00357 | Full-cycle positive histogram, bullish momentum accumulating. |
| ADX(14) | 26.37 | 25.57 | 24.17 | Medium trend strength, currently consolidating. |
| CMF(20) | 0.0203 | 0.1894 | -0.0869 | 4 hours of strong accumulation, 1 hour of weak accumulation, 1 day of mild distribution |
| OBV | -1.36M | +2.96M | +375.94M | Medium- to high-cycle volume support, short-term selling pressure |
Support and resistance levels :
- Resistance levels : $0.7069–$0.7258 (Upper Bollinger Band), $0.7537 (Daily EMA26), $0.8380 (SMA50)
- Support levels below : $0.6855–$0.6469 (Bollinger Band Middle Line), $0.67 (Bullinger Band Reinforcement Zone), $0.5825 (Bollinger Band Lower Line)
Major Player Pattern Analysis
Bullish signal :
- The 4-hour CMF reaching 0.1894 indicates strong accumulated pressure , coupled with a MACD golden cross .
- The mandatory repurchase agreement served as the main buying force , locking up over 3 million units in November before the price stabilized.
- Slipstream incentives attract LP lock-in, indirectly reducing selling pressure.
Bearish risk :
- The daily CMF is negative (-0.0869), suggesting long-term distribution pressure.
- A price below key moving averages (SMA50/200) indicates a macroeconomic downtrend.
- The nearly 25% monthly decline reflects the overall adjustment of the Base ecosystem.
Exchange flows :
- Lack of available AERO exchange inflow/outflow data
- No direct whale trade alerts (December 2025)
Social sentiment analysis
Narrative Theme
Official communication focus :
- The official @AerodromeFi account emphasizes fair token distribution (100% initial supply to the Aerodrome and Velodrome communities, no dilution) x.com
- @taowatts (Aerodrome Foundation executive) is bullish on the AERO token mechanism, emphasizing its advantages as a financial instrument (global liquidity, instant settlement, programmable equity, native cash flow) . x.com
- @wagmiAlexander mentioned the future buyback and burn mechanism when Aero launches in Q2 2026, outlining it as a value accumulation strategy . x.com
KOL Opinions and Quality Assessment
Positive perspectives (high-quality sources):
- Aerodrome is designed as a token superior to traditional projects , integrating $7.5 billion in fees directly distributed to AERO holders.
- The "smart money inflow" narrative within the Base ecosystem lists AERO as a representative of resilience in the Altcoin market.
- Emphasizing veAERO lock-in incentives as a long-term value alignment mechanism
Controversy Mapping :
- 801K Buyback Event : Limited community discussion, only official updates, no high-participation reactions or debates.
- Robinhood IPO : As of December 4, 2025, no high-quality tweets or Reddit discussions were found, indicating limited awareness or speculation.
Emotional Tendency :
- The overall outlook is optimistic about AERO's long-term positioning , driven by its mechanism design and community alignment, rather than short-term hype.
- There was a lack of negative or skeptical voices, and influential figures unanimously expressed optimism.
in conclusion
Robinhood Listing Status : As of December 4, 2025, there is no evidence that AERO has been listed on Robinhood . Although AERO is traded in spot and perpetual contracts on nine major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Bybit, etc.), it is not included in Robinhood's cryptocurrency product line, and there has been no official announcement regarding its listing.
Impact of 801K Buyback Lock-up : This buyback has pushed the cumulative locked-up amount to over 150 million tokens. Although this only accounts for 0.07% of the circulating supply, the systematic supply management, combined with Slipstream's liquidity incentive of up to 2,091% APR, has created a protocol-level value capture mechanism. Technically, a strong accumulation signal on the 4-hour chart (CMF 0.1894) resonates with the buyback timing, but long-term distribution pressure on the daily chart (CMF -0.0869) and the price falling below key moving averages reflect the continued risk of macroeconomic adjustments.
Analysis of the main force's position : The agreement uses PGF programmatic repurchase as the "main force's buying power," forming a triple lock-up mechanism with veAERO lock-up incentives and LP rewards. With 66% of the total supply already allocated/locked, the repurchase strategy further strengthens the scarcity of supply. In the short term, medium-term technical indicators (MACD golden cross, ADX moderate trend strength) support an upward expectation after consolidation; in the long term, attention should be paid to breakout signals from the SMA50 ($0.8380) and SMA200 ($0.9124) resistance levels, as well as improvements in the overall liquidity environment of the Base ecosystem.