Repeated expectations of an SBF amnesty have intensified short-term volatility in the FTT market.
TL;DR
The SBF amnesty is expected to experience significant volatility in early December 2025, with Polymarket odds plummeting from 12% after the CZ amnesty to 2-4%, reflecting a rapid cooling of market expectations regarding the possibility of an amnesty. FTT prices are highly sensitive, rising 12.16% to $0.6219 in the last 24 hours, but technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, with a 30-day volatility of 11.92%. On-chain data shows stable exchange reserves, overwhelmingly negative social sentiment, and legal experts expressing skepticism about the amnesty's prospects.
Core Analysis
Fluctuations in expectations for amnesty
As of December 5, 2025, the market priced in an extremely low probability of SBF receiving a pardon in 2025 at 2-4% , but this figure has experienced significant fluctuations. After Trump pardoned Binance's CZ and former Honduran President Hernández, SBF's pardon odds surged from 5.6% to 12%, before quickly falling back to the current low of 2-4%.
| Time Node | Polymarket odds | Triggering event | Market reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before CZ's amnesty | 5.6% | Baseline expectations | low volatility |
| After CZ's amnesty | 12% | Trump's pardon precedent | Speculative surge |
| December 5 | 2-4% | Legal experts question | rapid cooling |
| 2027 forecast | twenty two% | Long Tail Betting | Persistent uncertainty |
Another Polymarket market shows that SBF has a 15-20% chance of being released in 2025. This figure includes possibilities other than a pardon (such as a successful appeal), but it also reflects the high degree of uncertainty in the market.
SBF's campaign was conducted through an X account managed by a friend, where he tweeted on December 5 praising Trump's pardon of Hernández and CZ as "correcting injustice" and attempting to position himself as a "political victim" in the Biden era. However, legal experts have expressed skepticism, pointing out that SBF's fraud charges are far more serious than CZ's compliance violations.
Appeal Progress and Legal Obstacles
At the appeals court hearing on November 4, 2025, the judge expressed skepticism about SBF's claims of unfair trial, finding the evidence against him to be "substantially sufficient." As of December 5, the court had not yet issued a ruling, with an informal six-month period starting from the hearing. SBF is currently serving a 25-year sentence at FCI Terminal Island, with the earliest possible release date being October 2044.
Social sentiment analysis
Community opposition
Opposition to the SBF amnesty is dominant on social media, with the main arguments focusing on:
- The scale of the fraud is enormous : the community emphasizes the scale of damage SBF has caused to customers and the crypto industry, arguing that the amnesty will undermine efforts to rebuild trust within the industry.
- Weak political ties : Unlike CZ, who received a pardon, SBF is a major donor to the Democratic Party and lacks ties with the MAGA camp.
- Moral hazard : Analyst Kydo warns that amnesty could send the wrong signal to future fraudsters that "mass theft can be forgiven."
KOL viewpoints comparison
| identity | position | Key points | Quality assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZachXBT | Strongly opposed | Mocking the idea of amnesty in the context of the exchange's failure. | Gao (On-Chain Survey Expert) |
| Kydo | Firmly oppose | Criticisms of the campaign were deemed manipulative, and warnings were issued regarding moral hazards. | High (systematic analysis) |
| Mario Nawfal | Neutral reporting | Reports on interviews conducted in SBF prison and the pardon of his cellmate | (China Media Communication) |
| Coin Bureau | Cautious neutrality | It was pointed out that the appeal hearing might be unfair, and that a pardon was a last resort. | (News Analysis) |
It is worth noting that major KOLs such as CZ and Vitalik have not made any direct comments on the SBF amnesty recently, indicating that the industry is avoiding this topic.
Emotional fluctuation cycle
Social emotions exhibited a clear "hope-disappointment" cycle:
- Early 2025 : Fake News Triggers Brief Optimism
- November : The lobbying campaign initially garnered attention, but subsequently encountered opposition.
- December : After Trump pardoned other figures, SBF was excluded, further cooling public perception.
- Current trend : Expectations continue to decline, and community focus shifts to FTX creditor distribution and appeal results.
Technical Analysis
Short-term volatility exacerbated
As of 15:04 UTC on December 5, 2025, the FTT price was $0.6219, exhibiting significant short-term volatility.
| Timeframe | Price position | RSI | ATR | Volatility signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | $0.6219 (near the upper rail) | 66.79 | 0.0196 | Overbought, upper rail test |
| 4 hours | Upper and middle rail sections | 68.87 | 0.0230 | Strong overbuying |
| Daily chart | Below EMA(26) | 46.74 | 0.0510 | Neutral, downward structure |
Volatility Quantification :
- The 30-day historical volatility reached 11.92% , indicating a significant increase in volatility.
- The daily ATR is 0.0510, representing approximately 8.2% of the current price's average true volatility.
- Bollinger bandwidth expands at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, indicating increased volatility.
Key price range
Support level :
- $0.5296 (lower rail on the 1-hour chart)
- $0.5203 (4-hour lower rail)
- $0.5132 (Secondary Support)
Resistance level :
- $0.6277 (1-hour upper rail, currently under test)
- $0.6805 (daily upper Bollinger Band)
- $0.6849 (November 20 high)
News event relevance
Price fluctuations and news of anticipated amnesty events show a strong correlation:
- October : Amnesty rumors drove FTT up 55% to $0.83, before retreating to the $0.80 range.
- November 14 : A $1.1 billion market liquidation event (echoing the 2022 FTX crash) led to a weekly drop of 10.45%.
- November 20 : The U.S. government's seizure of 545,000 FTTs (worth $348,900) exerts downward pressure.
- December 1-2 : Price fell from $0.5980 to $0.5241 (-12.4%), then rebounded.
Technical analysis shows that despite a 12.16% increase in the last 24 hours, the short-term RSI is overbought (66.79 on the 1-hour chart and 68.87 on the 4-hour chart) and the price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating an increased risk of a pullback. The daily chart structure remains in a downtrend (below the SMA50 at $0.7259 and the SMA200 at $0.8632), with an approximately 40% probability of an upward breakout.
On-chain analysis
Exchange liquidity mixed signal
From November 28th to December 5th, 2025, FTT's on-chain data shows:
| date | Net Flow (FTT) | Inflow | outflow | Exchange Reserves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 28 | -26,910 | 87,775 | 114,685 | 104,569,628 |
| November 29 | +10,615 | 168,470 | 157,855 | 104,580,243 |
| November 30 | -15,271 | 9,168 | 24,439 | 104,564,971 |
| December 1 | +25,852 | 142,310 | 116,458 | 104,590,823 |
| December 2 | +261 | 90,546 | 90,285 | 104,591,084 |
| December 3 | -10,633 | 16,406 | 27,039 | 104,580,451 |
| December 4 | +2,081 | 35,058 | 32,978 | 104,582,532 |
Key observations :
- The exchange's total reserves remain highly stable , hovering between 104.5 and 104.6 million FTT, with a daily volatility of <0.02%.
- Net flows were mixed, with a maximum single-day net outflow of 26,910 FTT (November 28), but no clear overall trend.
- The cumulative net flow during this period was close to equilibrium, indicating that there were no signs of large-scale selling pressure or accumulation.
Holder concentration
| Address type | Holdings (FTT) | percentage | logo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Largest holder | 195,869,348 | 59.55% | 0x5c9d...fb36b |
| Second holder | 45,850,883 | 13.94% | 0x97f9...1e5c |
| Binance 8 | 33,241,071 | 10.11% | Exchange Wallet |
| FTX Exchange | 31,701,320 | 9.64% | FTX Exchange |
| Fifth holder | 11,695,851 | 3.56% | 0x77f3...ad2 |
Concentration risk :
- The top 5 addresses control 96.8% of the circulating supply, indicating extreme concentration.
- Exchange-related addresses (Binance, FTX, Gate.io, etc.) collectively hold approximately 21% of the supply.
- There were no large whale transfers (>1% supply) during the period, and the top two holders had no FTT-related activities.
Government seizure impact
On November 20, the U.S. government seized 545,000 FTT (approximately $348,900) from FTX assets. Although the amount was small relative to the total supply (0.16%), it was a negative news event that put downward pressure on market sentiment, which coincided with the price falling from $0.6849 that day.
in conclusion
The dramatic fluctuations in SBF pardon expectations were primarily driven by factors such as market odds, the precedent of Trump's pardons, legal expert skepticism, and social media hype, but the actual probability of a pardon remains extremely low at 2-4%. The increased short-term volatility in FTT is essentially due to the amplified sensitivity of illiquid assets to highly uncertain events , a characteristic evidenced by the 30-day volatility of 11.92% and the average daily price swing of 8.2%.
Technical analysis suggests an increased risk of short-term overbought conditions, while on-chain data presents a neutral picture of stable reserves and mixed liquidity. Social sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, and the appeal process is slow and the outlook is uncertain. Overall, FTT prices will continue to be influenced by high volatility driven by fluctuating amnesty expectations and news events, but lack sustainable upward momentum supported by fundamentals, making it predominantly speculative.