LUNA Rebound Fund Flow Analysis

TL;DR

LUNA (Terra v2) experienced a 12-23% price rebound in early December, but no specific institutional, fund, or whale driven inflows were observed . The rebound was primarily driven by three events: the anticipated Do Kwon ruling (December 11), the v2.18 network upgrade (December 8), and the spillover effect of LUNA sentiment. On-chain data and exchange liquidity data show extremely low visibility for LUNA v2, indicating that this was a retail-driven event-driven market rather than one dominated by large funds.

Core Analysis

Price performance

LUNA experienced a typical V-shaped rebound between November 28 and December 5:

• 24-hour increase : ranging from 12.97% to 23.15%, depending on the statistical time point.
• Market capitalization : $51.40M (as of December 5)
• Trading pairs supported : 4 exchanges (Binance, Bitget, Bybit, OKX), 8 of the 20 trading pairs are active.

rebound catalyst

1. Legal Progress in Do Kwon

Do Kwon pleaded guilty in August 2025 to charges of conspiracy, commodities fraud, securities fraud, and wire fraud related to the $40 billion TerraUSD/LUNA crash. The U.S. Department of Justice sought a 12-year prison sentence (comparable to the SBF case), while the defense requested a maximum of 5 years. The sentencing is scheduled for December 11, 2025, in the United States, which the market views as a potential resolution to a regulatory impasse, triggering traders to position themselves in advance.

2. v2.18 Network Upgrade

Terra plans to implement the v2.18 upgrade on December 8th (block height 18,660,000), the main changes of which include:

• Repairing medium-risk chain stall issues
• Destroy ASTRO tokens to restore IBC balance
• CosmWasm update (proposal 4845)
• Enhancing blockchain stability and security

Binance announced a one-hour suspension of LUNA deposits and withdrawals starting at 20:05 UTC+8 on December 8th to support upgrade stability. Analysts believe that on-chain activity may increase after the upgrade, contributing short-term momentum.

3. LUNC's emotional overflow

Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) surged 81.5% on December 5th, with 24-hour trading volume soaring 910% to $112 million and futures open interest reaching a high of $5.46 million. The driving factors behind LUNC (its burning mechanism, community hype, and the viral promotion during Binance's Dubai Blockchain Week) generated spillover effects, with some funds flowing to the more closely related LUNA v2.

Fund Flow Analysis

On-chain data missing

• Exchange liquidity : LUNA does not include the supported asset list, so data on net inflows/outflows, whale activity, or reserve changes is unavailable.
• Large transactions : Between November 28th and December 5th, no transactions exceeding 1 million LUNA were detected by the Terra blockchain explorers (Mintscan, Terra Finder, ATOMScan).
• Cryptocurrency holdings distribution : According to the rich list data source, the number of holders during this period was zero or the data was unavailable. The concentration of the top 10/20/50/100 holders was 0.00%.

Social Media Insights

• There are no highly engaged posts on Twitter/X platforms discussing the LUNA v2 bounce or mentioning specific buyers.
• Key community accounts (@LuncDaily, @Cointelegraph, @TheBlock__) only amplified the news about the Do Kwon verdict, without mentioning the LUNA v2 fund inflows.
• There is no direct reference to whale wallet addresses, investor groups, or institutional accumulation.

Transaction data evaluation

• LUNA has limited trading pair support on major exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit, Bitget) (only 8 out of 20 are active).
• The trading volume on December 5th was relatively low at $14.50 million (compared to LUNC's $112 million).
• No LUNA v2 related reports were found from on-chain tracing platforms such as lookonchain, Arkham, and Whale Alert.

Compared with LUNC

LUNC showed significant large-scale capital activity during the same period:

• 250B LUNC was withdrawn from the exchange to a hot wallet (early December), indicating that whale are leaving the market and accumulating funds.
• Specific purchase records: 806M LUNC ($39,542), 688M LUNC ($31,297), etc.
• Binance hot wallet held 1.83T LUNC, and burned 182 million LUNC on December 5th.

However, this data belongs exclusively to LUNC (Terra Classic) and is unrelated to LUNA v2 , both of which are separate tokens that forked after the 2022 crash.

in conclusion

The December rally in LUNA (Terra v2) was an event-driven retail rally, rather than one dominated by large funds . Three catalysts (anticipation of the Do Kwon verdict, network upgrades, and LUNA spillover) created a short-term trading window, but lacked substantial evidence of institutional inflows or whale accumulation.

Key constraints include: (1) LUNA v2 has a market capitalization of only $51.40M and extremely low liquidity; (2) weak on-chain data infrastructure and a lack of transparency; and (3) limited support for trading pairs, which weakens the feasibility of institutional participation. In contrast, LUNC shows stronger financial activity and community support, but the two are not interchangeable.

Investors should be wary: such event-driven rallies often lack sustainability, and once the catalyst is digested (the upgrade is complete, the verdict is finalized), prices may revert to fundamentals. Without verifiable large-scale capital inflows, the current gains appear more like speculative betting than a value reassessment.