TL;DR

PIPPIN recently surged 73% from $0.158 to a record high of $0.274 (market capitalization of $275 million), but on-chain data confirms that approximately 73% of the supply is controlled by a single entity through 50 linked wallets (worth over $155 million). The RSI indicator is severely overbought (reaching 82.20 on 1-day), and social sentiment has shifted from euphoria to concentrated warnings of manipulation and rug-pull risks. Extremely high risk; chasing the price higher is not recommended .

Core Analysis

Price performance and market data

PIPPIN (Solana chain token, contract: Dfh5DzRgSvvCFDoYc2ciTkMrbDfRKybA4SoFbPmApump ) was recorded at 09:41 UTC on December 6, 2025:

Catalyst : After OKX perpetual contracts were launched on December 2, coupled with the fact that whales bought $19M through 50 wallets and withdrew 44% of the supply from the exchange at the end of November, a chain reaction of supply squeeze and short selling liquidation was triggered.

On-chain concentration risk (key warning)

Position distribution data

73% control verification (confirmed by multiple sources) :

• Funds Source Tracking : Approximately 50 wallets withdrew funds from Gate.io and Bitget to establish positions, with a highly coordinated trading model.
• Holding characteristics : Key wallets such as 4QyhPZrdsL6tbjZVkWqAxF6c9NxSVzFXG4KG9sRMhdiP (3.6%) and 8NDaHn1YrToEB2SLaEhftWFeCUa2ZFpKcx8JQEScX5F9 (3.44%) established positions around the end of November, with initial investments of $500-700k and current value of $5-8M.
• Static holdings : Since the peak on December 3, there have been virtually no withdrawals from the wallet, indicating a "pending sell" status.
• Credibility : Consistently confirmed by multiple on-chain analytics platforms including Front Runners (20,000+ followers), ALfant (Arkham data), and Bubblemaps.

Manipulation risk mechanism : A single entity creates a "leveraged death spiral" by controlling the market - supply locks up and pushes up prices → liquidates short positions → further increases prices → attracts retail investors → large-scale selling for profit.

Technical Analysis

Multi-period indicator status

Current price structure (as of 09:41 UTC, December 6):

• Price : $0.26351 (Binance Perpetual)
• Key support levels : $0.240 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper breakout level), $0.2575 (1-day Bollinger Band upper line)
• Resistance levels : $0.28 (recent high), $0.30 (liquidation cluster area)
• Trend strength : Price is above all moving averages, but the 1D RSI is at 82.20, indicating short-term pullback pressure.

Derivatives Market Data

Open interest dynamics : Total open interest is $169.17M, a surge of 47.35% in 24 hours, indicating speculative fervor but also amplifying the risk of a market crash.

Funding rates : Binance -0.3286%, Bybit -0.7469% (negative values). Short sellers pay long positions, which temporarily suppresses short short but is not sustainable.

24-hour liquidation : Total $11.07M, of which $9.12M was short liquidation vs. $1.95M was long liquidation, confirming a short squeeze.

Liquidation Risk Chart : The accumulated long liquidation risk is $4.83M near $0.2438 below the price; the short liquidation risk is $1.42M in the $0.3318 area above, indicating that a pullback may trigger a chain of long liquidations.

Social Emotions and Market Narratives

Emotional turning point

Late November to early December :

• After surging 400%, it topped the hot lists of multiple exchanges.
• The Meme/AI agent concept (X platform autonomous influencer, inspired by BabyAGI) has attracted early attention.

Things took a sharp turn for the worse after December 3rd :

• On-chain analysts have issued a collective warning about 73% control of the market, calling it a "time bomb."
• The price fell 23% from its peak of $0.244 to $0.19 (December 3).
• Platforms like Binance Square emphasize risks of manipulation, high transaction fees, low liquidity, and overvaluation.

Key warning topic

• Insider Control : Approximately half of the supply ($120M) is held by insiders and could be distributed at any time after a 1000% price surge.
• Retail investor trap : Analysts describe it as a liquidity trap, where supply cornering forces buying to push up prices, subsequently triggering a liquidation cycle.
• The project team remains silent : there is no official statement addressing the concentration concerns.
• Comparing it to historical cases : The community compared it to past cases of Meme coin manipulation, urging people to avoid FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

Overall polarity : Bearish dominance, with cautionary content overwhelmingly outweighing any remaining bullish voices (mostly promotional noise).

in conclusion

Is it safe to get on the bus? It is strongly discouraged.

Fatal risk factors :

1. 73% supply concentration : A single entity controls the vast majority of tokens through 50 wallets, and could potentially dump the tokens at any time for profit (early whales sold 24.8 million tokens on December 1st, making a profit of $3.74 million).
2. Technically extremely overbought : RSI 1D has reached 82.20; historically, this level has typically been followed by a 20-40% pullback.
3. Negative sentiment dominates : On-chain analysts unanimously warn of rug-pull risks, community trust collapses.
4. Leveraged liquidation risk : $4.83 million in long positions have been liquidated below $0.24; a break below this level would trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.

The only upward momentum is driven by short squeezes (negative funding rates) and soaring open interest, but this is an unsustainable speculative bubble rather than fundamental support.

Rational advice :

• Existing holders : Take profits immediately to avoid becoming a counterparty in a liquidity exit strategy.
• Potential buyers : Remain cautiously on the sidelines, awaiting signs of distribution by the controlling entity (large transfers) or market restructuring.
• Short-term speculation : Only suitable for very small positions (<1% of capital) with a strict stop-loss below $0.24; the risk-reward ratio is extremely poor.

Historical lessons : Meme coins with highly centralized control typically experience an 80-95% pullback after a surge, and PIPPIN's current state meets all warning signs.